Felixstowe container port [Image: David Levene for the Guardian].

Felixstowe container port [Image: David Levene for the Guardian].

It’s pointless arguing about whether predictions about GDP falling and trade slowing are accurate; we will all find out soon enough.

The debate about whether the UK will enact a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit is a nonsense; it will be as hard as the rest of the EU can make it.

That means no membership of the customs union or the single market.

Bank on it – if you can afford to!

Cabinet ministers have been given detailed warnings that the UK pulling out of the EU customs union could lead to a 4.5% fall in GDP by 2030 and the clogging up of trade through Britain’s ports.

The predictions were contained in a paper circulated at a meeting of Theresa May’s special Brexit cabinet committee, which concluded that ministers were not yet prepared to decide whether the UK should withdraw from the EU’s free trade bloc.

The 4.5% cut is the average prediction made in three studies that were carried out before Britain’s EU referendum, in a move that could anger Brexit supporting MPs who believe that the old estimates are out of date.

Source: Theresa May given stark warning about leaving customs union | Politics | The Guardian
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