New independent economic analysis commissioned by the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, indicates that a ‘no deal’ hard Brexit could lead to a lost decade or longer of significantly lower growth. The worst-case scenario could result in:

• 500,000 fewer jobs
• 87,000 fewer jobs in London by 2030
• nearly £50bn UK-wide investment lost by 2030

Financial and professional services could be the hardest hit with 119,000 fewer jobs nationally. Other sectors reported include: science and technology (92,000 fewer jobs), construction (43,000 fewer jobs) and the creative sector (27,000 fewer jobs).

Even softer Brexit scenarios, like the UK remaining in the Single Market, but leaving the Customs Union after a transition period could still result in a 176,000 fewer jobs across the country.

The report also shows that London could suffer much less from Brexit than the rest of the country – increasing geographic inequalities across the UK.

A future trade relationship must be agreed between the Government and the EU by 27 October this year. The Mayor is warning that with just 10 months to go, time is running out.

In total, five scenarios were modelled by Cambridge Econometrics to illustrate the range of possible outcomes of the UK’s future relationship with the EU. These are:

• Scenario 1 – A ‘close to status quo’ scenario where the UK remains part of both of the single market and customs union
• Scenario 2 –  A scenario where the UK remains part of the single market, but not the customs union
• Scenario 3 – A scenario where the UK remains part of the customs union, but not the single market
• Scenario 4 –  A hard Brexit scenario in which trade between the UK and the EU falls under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules with a two-year transition period from March 2019
• Scenario 5 – The same hard Brexit scenario but without a two-year transition period

For more information on each scenario – see the full report

What now?

A future trade relationship must be agreed between the Government and the EU by October this year. The Mayor is warning that with just 10 months to go, time is running out.

He said:

“I’ve released these impact assessments because the British people and our businesses have a right to know the likely impact on their lives and personal finances.

“This new analysis shows why the Government should now change its approach and negotiate a deal that enables us to remain in both the Single Market and the Customs Union.”

Source: Mayor warns hard Brexit could lead to ‘lost decade’ of growth and employment | London City Hall

It all dovetails very well with this opinion, too:

Whichever way you consider it, Brexit won’t be pleasant.

Fancy an alternative?

TSSA Union leader Manuel Cortes reckons Jeremy Corbyn – if elected prime minister – could keep the UK in a reformed European Union. That would be much better for all of us than the Tory Brexit we’re getting.

Ah, but there’s a big push to make us all believe that Mr Corbyn is a closet Brexiter at the moment. Lots of people you’ve never heard of, trying to be authoritative on Twitter.

Not really convincing, is it?

But then, neither is the left-wing ‘Leave’ argument.

Jeremy Corbyn knows this – you can be sure.

So you can be sure that Labour is only supporting Brexit because of the general belief that a tiny majority of the population wants it.

As soon as it becomes clear that this is no longer true, This Writer reckons Labour’s position will change.

That’s why Brexiters in positions of authority are determined to deny us the opportunity to give another opinion, informed as it would be by the facts that have come out since June, 2016.

But these things have a tendency to make themselves known – one way or another.

---

Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:

Here are four ways to be sure you’re among the first to know what’s going on.

1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (in the left margin). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.

2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical

3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/

Join the Vox Political Facebook page.

4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com

And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!

If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!

Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.

The Livingstone Presumption is now available
in either print or eBook format here:

Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:

The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here: