Category Archives: Inflation

Economists please note: high inflation may be A POLITICAL CHOICE

This is fine: the image above was originally about climate change but it may be applied equally well to Rishi Sunak’s attitude to the economy. Political policy in the UK for the past 40 years and more has been to impoverish you, together with all the poor people who voted for him and his ilk, thereby allowing it to happen.

All the Tory talk about getting inflation down seems to have confused some people who have failed to consider that high inflation may actually be Conservative government policy.

Look at the usually-excellent Simon Wren-Lewis’s latest Mainly Macro piece, in which he takes issue with left-wing opinions about his current diagnosis of the inflation problem.

He reckons the answer is for private sector wage rises to come down, probably by way of reducing economic demand which will lead to a reduction in the workforce – and, thereby, a recession. This opinion appears to be shared with the Bank of England, whose continual interest rate hikes seem to be an attempt to force the UK’s economy to go backwards.

The problem with that is simple: ordinary working- and even some middle-class people are struggling to make ends meet. Many simply can’t and are going into debt. His solution to the inflation problem will bake that inability to afford the cost of living into the UK economy.

With the Tory government lying to us that workers’ wages are the cause of high inflation and the Bank of England doing as described above, there seems to be only one logical conclusion to draw:

High inflation is a Conservative government policy. It is intended to drive the UK’s lower-paid citizens deep into poverty so you cannot afford the necessities of life.

Just roll that around your mind for a moment.

Think about the real causes of inflation: huge increases in the prices of energy and food, and huge increases in the salaries of FTSE100 executives.

The government could, in theory, neutralise these inflationary pressures through taxation – but the theory fails in practice: as Professor Wren-Lewis notes, the energy firms are multi-national corporations whose profits are received overseas, so there is nothing the government can do about them.

Looking back through history, we see that the reason overseas shareholders have been able to take control of our formerly-nationalised utility firms (energy isn’t the only subject area to have been treated this way, of course; water springs instantly to mind) is privatisation.

The answer should be re-nationalisation – but the Tory government (and also Keir Starmer’s STP – Substitute Tory Party) won’t countenance that; it is against their ideology. This indicates, again, that high inflation that drives you into poverty is a political choice. Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer want you to starve.

In the private sector, we see that the salaries of FTSE100 executives have risen by an average of 16 per cent in the last year alone, despite the fact that there has been no real growth in production in the last 15 years since the Great Recession. The money for their pay rise has to come from somewhere and the logical source is the pay packets of employees; they are taking the rises that should go to you.

That’s if they haven’t increased the prices of their goods or services, of course. If they have then they are still taking the rises that should go to you, while also increasing prices so you can’t afford what your employer sells.

The answer – the way to stop this irresponsible upward drain of corporate funds into executive bank accounts – is to tax executive pay at a rate high enough to make this practice unviable. Again, both Rishi Sunak’s Tories and Keir Starmer’s Tories have refused to do this so – again – we must conclude that the executive wage inflation that puts us all into poverty is a political choice.

Professor Wren-Lewis rightly points out that, where employees have won wage increases intended to match inflation caused mainly by high energy prices, their employers have put prices up; this indicates that shifting the real-terms wage cut onto the profits of other firms won’t work and just generates more inflation.

Professor Wren-Lewis goes on to discuss the reason real wages in the UK have not grown in the last 15 years. As already mentioned above, besides the energy and food price hikes, it is the fact that productivity growth has been extremely weak. There have also been two large devaluations of the Pound.

The low productivity – and one of the depreciations – were caused by Brexit. This is another political policy of the Conservative government that is also supported by Keir Starmer’s STP and may therefore be seen as further proof that the party of government (and that of Opposition) intends to impoverish you as a matter of policy.

Brexit also makes causing a recession more attractive to the government and the party that wants to form a government. Neither of them want inflation to continue running rampant forever; it would eventually wipe out the gains they have made for their very rich friends, so they’ll want to bring it down.

The way to do that, according to Prof Wren-Lewis, is to reduce the demand for goods produced by most firms, as this will lead to a reduced demand for labour; firms then lay off workers, meaning more people are seeking employment, meaning in turn that jobseekers will be more likely to accept a job that pays lower wages.

Before Brexit, politicians could always rely on an influx of cheap labour from Europe. That isn’t available now, so they consider recession to be the only alternative. Remember: their future is safe.

Demand is already coming down because people simply can’t afford to buy as much as they used to, due to the real-terms wage cuts they have suffered. The Bank of England’s interest rate rises are hammering that change home.

We may therefore conclude that recession, job losses, further deprivation and misery are all policy points of the Conservative government, and of Keir Starmer’s STP.

Professor Wren-Lewis ends his piece by quoting Bertrand Russell: “Ask yourself only what are the facts, and what is the truth that the facts bear out. Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe, or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed.”

Sadly, he fails to follow his own (and Russell’s) advice.

The truth that the facts bear out is that privatisation, executive pay rises, Brexit, austerity (the other driver of the Pound’s depreciation) and interest rate rises are all intended to push the majority of UK citizens into poverty.

Other solutions besides reducing demand by causing a recession and mass unemployment are available – but the low-quality politicians with whom we have accepted that Parliament should be filled are not interested in them; their only concern is filling their own bank accounts.

Our concern must now be to put a stop to this.


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Labour’s stance on inflation: all mouth and no trousers

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves: their economic and anti-inflation policies aren’t intended to help working people in the slightest, it seems.

Cast your eyes over the following word salad from Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and This Writer’s own reply to it:

I call it “word salad” because that’s what it is – a random mixture of words and phrases suggestive of advanced schizophrenia.

Nothing in Rachel Reeves’s post actually means anything. She doesn’t explain how building the UK economy will boost growth, deliver jobs or bring down bills because she either doesn’t know – or knows that it won’t.

Most people are already in work, remember – so delivering more jobs won’t actually help unless they are better-paying jobs, and we already know that Keir Starmer’s Labour is against higher pay rises for working people. Like the Tories, that party is claiming such developments will only speed inflation.

And how does she expect to bring down bills? The cost of everything is still rising at the moment, albeit at a slower speed. Economists say if goods and services became cheaper, that might trigger a recession. So it seems this is not possible.

Making bills cheaper in real terms – as a percentage of household income – is impossible because Reeves will do nothing to increase wages for the lowest-paid workers.

Angela Rayner said much the same when challenged by the BBC’s Sally Nugent:

She mentions getting waiting lists down so more people are work, and paying properly for public services – but these require more spending by the government. Does that mean Labour will tax the people more? Otherwise we’re into another inflationary spiral.

And which people will Labour tax, if it has to? The working poor or the super-rich? Given the number of Labour representatives who are receiving massive donations from the super-rich, I think we all know the answer to that.

Here’s a social media post from “The Labour Party”, highlighting a Sky News article:

The article itself doesn’t mention anything Keir Starmer’s party would do until its penultimate paragraph, in which – amid the now-familiar nonsense mantra about boosting growth, boosting wages and bringing down bills, Shadow Economic Secretary Tulip Siddiq states:

“If Labour were in power today, we would introduce a proper windfall tax on the huge profits the oil and gas giants are making to help families with the cost of living.

So Starmer’s answer is indeed taxing somebody to keep extra government spending from boosting inflation.

Well, he’d better hope there’s an election soon because otherwise those energy firms will have given away all those profits as shareholder dividends and… Didn’t Starmer already promise not to tax wealth?

Here’s a thought:

Rather than make a big fuss while talking a lot of nonsense, why not have a look around the world at economies that actually work for their people and see what they’re doing right that the UK isn’t?

They could start with Denmark, perhaps:

The fact that Keir Starmer’s crowd is not doing that – is actually refusing to consider practical, proven alternatives, suggests that there is no intention to change the situation. not by one iota.

Starmer and his motley crew know you are being hammered by the high cost of living, every day.

We must conclude that it is Labour policy to continue grinding your face into the dirt.

Up goes the interest rate – down goes the economy

The Bank of England: its interest rate rise will not reduce inflation but increase it.

The Bank of England has raised the UK’s base rate of interest on money lent by financial organisations to five per cent, in line with expectations after the government failed to bring down inflation.

The inflation rate remained at 8.7 per cent in May, due to Brexit, profiteering by firms including energy companies and businesses in food supply chains, and… interest rate rises that have pushed up the cost of money.

The higher interest rate is intended to give mortgage-holders less to spend – but in fact it means we all have less because businesses now factor interest rate rises into the prices they charge us.

It means that, in order to stop prices from rising, the Bank of England has pushed prices even further up.

The very rich will be able to cope with it, of course; they have more money in the first place. And they must have become rich somehow, meaning they’ll be able to make more money anyway.

(They’re probably the people who’ve factored the interest rate rise into their prices and will therefore take more money from us, especially if they have a share in energy firms, water companies or mortgage lenders).

Smaller businesses will go to the wall, of course. They aren’t selling items that are absolutely essential and in a country where wages have been artificially restricted to 2005 (or even turn-of-the-century) levels, people will cut non-essentials out of their spending.

The result: recession. And it’s a recession that could have been avoided if we didn’t have a gang of lunatic idiots running the nation’s finances.


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Rishi Sunak hasn’t only failed to beat inflation – his other pledges are broken as well

Rishi Sunak and his priorities: he hasn’t achieved a single one.

Yesterday (Wednesday, June 21, 2023) was not a good day to be Rishi Sunak.

Neither was Monday – but that’s another story.

We knew he failed on inflation because it’s the big headline.

But what about his other targets?

The UK’s debt pile, meanwhile, reached more than 100 per cent of economic output for the first time since 1961 as government borrowing more than doubled in May, according to official figures.

So it did:

It shows up the lie in George Osborne’s evidence to the Covid Inquiry this week, too: Osborne claimed he had needed to repair the “seriously impaired public finances”.

He said: “If we had not had a clear plan to put the public finances on a sustainable path then Britain might have experienced a fiscal crisis, we would not have had the fiscal space to deal with the coronavirus pandemic when it hit,” he said.

But when he became Chancellor in May 2010, the UK’s national debt stood at £1.03 trillion. He promised to eliminate it altogether (which is kindergarten economics; the debt is merely a yardstick of private investment in the UK’s economy) – and today’s figures show the extent of his massive failure.

Okay, how about the small boat Channel crossings?

On Sunday, it was revealed that more than 1,100 people had arrived on small boats in the past three days.

The cumulative number of arrivals in 2023 now stands at a provisional total of 10,472, according to the latest data from the Home Office.

We already know NHS waiting lists are not falling (because health service funding is being siphoned off by private health firms as profit?) and intelligent commentators say the Bank of England’s expected response to the inflation figures will stifle economic growth by sucking all the spare money out of the system.

This is what happens when you let Conservatives get their hands on the workings of government: they clown around like the idiots they are until everything breaks down.

Source: Sunak’s five pledges lie in tatters ahead of next election


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Hey, kids! Oldies in suits just made everything you want more expensive!

Rishi Sunak: the richest man in the UK is the UK’s prime minister. He isn’t affected by inflation or interest rate rises – but he, his government, the Bank of England and businesses are all determined to make sure that you are. How long are you going to sit there and let them mess with you, because you’re “not interested in politics”?

Now do you get why politics should matter to you?

Today (June 21, 2023), we’re all being told that inflation has remained high despite promises from the rich old folk in suits that it would plummet down to more manageable levels.

The reason for this is being touted as high food prices, according to mainstream news outlets like the BBC (UK inflation shock as food costs keep cost of living high) – but this isn’t true. The real reasons are corporate greed and Brexit.

(I know it doesn’t help that the mainstream media keep misleading you. Their job is to distract you away from what’s really happening, of course.)

So the utility firms (energy and water) and the supermarkets are fleecing you by charging whatever they want for goods that they’re actually buying far more cheaply, and this is offsetting the increased costs of importing goods that was caused by Brexit (and the war in Ukraine, although that is a secondary issue now).

The response from the government and the Bank of England is to make everything even more expensive by increasing the cost of money. If you don’t understand how they do this, it’s by raising interest rates on borrowing.

Businesses borrow habitually – for investment, or to finance temporary deficits during hard times, or (as we have learned about the privatised water firms recently) because they are diverting all the money they make into dividends for their shareholders and top executives.

Raising interest rates means the amount they will have to pay back to their lender of choice increases, meaning they have less spending money. Normally this creates a knock-on effect in which they stop buying the goods they need (because they can’t afford them), forcing the suppliers to reduce their prices in order to make sales. As inflation is all about price rises, this means inflation falls.

But that’s not happening at the moment because businesses are simply factoring the interest rate hikes into their pricing structures – they’re passing those rises on to you, the customer.

The result is that prices continue to rise, so inflation remains high.

The economist Richard Murphy explains what has happened in a useful Twitter thread. First, he tells us that the reasons we are being given for inflation are not true:

So inflation is not being caused by influences outside the control of the UK’s politicians and businesspeople. Mr Murphy continues:

Trade unionist Howard Beckett agrees with this, and adds to it usefully:

They’re allowed to do this because our politicians let them. The government could cap prices, but doesn’t want to. Is it because our MPs and their political parties are receiving weighty donations from the businesspeople?

Here’s Mr Murphy again:

So he agrees with This Writer (or more accurately, I agree with him – he’s the expert).

If you’re asking how this has anything to do with you, here comes the bombshell:

But…

The bottom line is that not only have you been deprived of the cash to buy the things that make life worth living (due to cuts that mean your pay is at 2005 – or even 2000 – levels while prices have surged) but you are also now expected to cover the increased prices demanded by the profiteers and the interest rate-setting banks from what is left.

Those are political choices.

Politicians whose own salaries (plus the afore-mentioned corporate donations) mean they aren’t affected by these decisions have used high inflation to take your money away from you.

The reason is simple:

They don’t want you to have any money.

Money provides security, and the lack of it means the lack of security. And an insecure person is controllable; you’ll do whatever you think you must, in order to survive. Right?

The ultimate aim – as This Site and others warned more than 10 years ago – is to put you in a permanent cycle of debt. This provides the fatcats with a population who will work like dogs for peanuts while they reap massive profits. Happy days – for them. Misery for you.

The only way to prevent this is to get rid of the people who are inflicting it on you – and that means using your vote to shift the rot out of Parliament.

Ah, but you don’t vote, do you? You can’t be bothered with politics because it doesn’t affect you.

Take a look in your wallet. Take a look at your bank account. Do you have as much in either as you did last year?

No?

Then politics does affect you. It doesn’t matter if you’re not interested in them; the oldies in the suits are definitely interested in you.

How badly are you going to let them mess up your life before you actually do something about it?


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High street sales have fallen. Is the economy overbalancing – and what if it does?

Closed: if high street sales continue to fall – and with high inflation and utility bills, that seems likely – then you should expect to see some of your favourite shops closing in the next few months, like this Mothercare store from three years ago.

Is this the first sign of the economy overbalancing? We’re being told that the UK won’t go into recession – that the economy will grow – but if high street sales are falling it is clear that people don’t have money to spend.

Where is all the cash going, then?

(This is the important news, by the way. The stuff about Boris Johnson resigning, his honours list, and the Labour Party becoming a cesspit under Keir Starmer is just gossip in comparison.)

The figures are clear:

Total like-for-like retail sales, combining in-store and online, fell by 1.5% overall compared with last May, according to business advisory firm BDO’s latest High Street Sales Tracker.

Online sales fell by 3.3%, one of the lowest results recorded outside of the pandemic, while in-store sales rose by just 1% across the month.

The homewares sector recorded a “very poor” total fall of 9.2% in May – off the back of last May’s 14.9% decline – as the higher cost of big-ticket items and rising interest rates deterred budget-conscious shoppers from spending on furniture and electronics.

Fashion recorded its third consecutive month of poor results, with total sales down by 1.5% in May – the first time in more than two years that the sector has recorded negative growth.

The lifestyle sector was the only category to record growth in May, but at a “far from reassuring” 0.7%.

Put this together with claims that the economy is improving and we may consider that inflation and high utility bills have sucked all the spending power out of the vast majority of the UK’s population,

None of us – apart from the rich – have money to spend on anything other than survival.

This is a situation that cannot last for long without causing societal change.

Inflation has fallen, but that only means prices are rising at a slower rate. With so many of us having taken real-terms pay cuts for many years under Tory government, it won’t be long before we can’t even afford to put meals on our tables.

The high street shops don’t have contingency plans for long-term sales drops so, if this new trend continues, they’ll be going out of business in a couple of months’ time.

And then we’ll see some real fireworks.

I wonder how Rishi Sunak is planning to keep the peace. Does he think his Public Order Act is going to stop riots?

Source: High street records negative sales for first time in more than two years


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Where is our money that the government spent – and do you know why it matters?

Spaffer: Boris Johnson splurged hundreds of billions of pounds during the Covid crisis and his successors have continued the trend. It all went to people who were already rich and has caused huge hardship to the poor, and nobody in government wants to re-balance the situation. Why?

It’s time to follow up on Gary Stevenson, the former City trader who became an economist and anti-inequality campaigner.

Last time, I shared Gary’s contributions to the BBC’s Politics Live via a YouTube clip that became extremely popular, with more than 140,000 views as I type this. Rest assured, there will be more content on YouTube in the future!

Now, Gary himself has shared what he himself took from his experience on the show, with which I’d like to couple his more recent clip, What is money? Together, I think they may explain why it’s so important that we find out who has the £700 billion that Boris Johnson’s government has splurged, and find a way to get them to spend it back into the economy or tax it off of them.

Here’s the first clip:

So: an enormous amount of money has been transferred from the government to the richest people in the UK, leading to a huge increase in government debt which triggers austerity, and a big increase in cash accumulation by the richest, leading to inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. The reasons for that are below.

Nobody in government seems to know where the money has gone – £14,000 for every adult in the UK. I don’t have 14 grand. Do you? Who’s got it, then? And what are they doing with it? They don’t want to say it has gone to the richest people in the country.

And they definitely don’t want to admit that their decision to hand over that money has forced you into extreme poverty!

That money could be put to good use, if the people who have it spend it back into the economy, one way or another. What did we get for it? Was it worth the cost? If not, something needs to be done.

Here’s the other clip:

Money is created by central banks and loaned out to others – so for every penny anybody has, there is a penny of debt somewhere; the total amount of money, minus the total amount of debt, always equals zero.

So if one group of people – like a government – goes heavily into debt, somebody else must be accumulating money or credit.

(The government then has to pay interest on the debt, and in a closed system, that means taxing more out of the economy than it put in; this is a way of regulating the money supply, of course. Commercial banks that borrow from the central bank would charge higher interest than it does when they make loans, in order to make their profit – meaning they rely on the system putting you into debt.)

We know that the government spent – splurged – £700 billion during and after Covid – £14,000 per UK adult. But every UK adult hasn’t had £14,000 from the government; somebody else had it.

People who are in debt – including governments – need to get money back from people who are in credit, otherwise they can’t balance their books. Until they can manage such a feat, that debt creates austerity – it harms public sector pay and public services don’t get the investment they need.

The problem is that only a small number of people are in credit, while the government – representing all of us – and a lot of others are in debt. There’s an imbalance between the large number of people owing money and the small number who have it, and (by the way) can lend it, and can therefore demand interest from the people to whom they lend it, in the same way a bank can.

So now, not only do we have a huge amount of government debt to pay off, but we may have private debt as well, because the cost of living has risen.

And why has the cost of living risen?

As Gary said, there has been a massive increase in asset prices: both gold and shares have hit (by now, I think) an all-time high, and that’s because rich people have been buying them up, with a view to profiting on them – because they have so much money, it won’t hurt them to invest much of it.

This creates scarcity, and that pushes up prices, meaning that ordinary people cannot afford to buy as much as they could before. The amount of resources available within the economy is the same, more or less, but fewer people can take advantage of it because the redistribution of money means they can’t afford it.

We have seen a resource run low – gas – and that has simply piled extra pressure on the poor.

We have a government that is not interested in resolving its £700 billion debt. Instead, it is planning to spend even more. So prices will continue to rise and living standards – for the majority – will continue to fall.

And that is why the current Conservative government has presided over the largest increase in inequality in UK history.

It occurs to This Writer that pushing huge debt onto the vast majority of the population may have been government policy all along.

Expect (probably) a video clip in the near future, explaining why.

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Interest rates rise again – are the banks deliberately prolonging recession?

The Bank of England has put interest rates up again – claiming that this is an attempt to fight inflation.

But inflation caused domestically – within the UK – is much lower than the 10.7 per cent rate that has been announced during the week, and falling (from 6.5 per cent to 6.3 per cent).

The higher rate is caused by price increases that cannot be changed by interest rate rises within the UK; we simply have to wait for these prices to drop. They are the result of political decisions to put the UK at the mercy of foreign businesses and influences.

Let’s have an example of mainstream media reporting on this:

And now the view from one of our favourite political economists:

Yes, that’s right. The inflation we’re suffering will be unaffected by UK interest rate rises.

All this decision will do is create further hardship for homeowners and small businesses, and prolong the recession that stupid Tory political decisions have caused.

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Firefighters reject below-inflation pay offer and will ballot on strike action

Dept. of Below-The-Attention-Of-The-BBC: I saw this tweet from Fire Brigades Union general secretary Matt Wrack…

So – nurses are to strike, civil servants are to strike, and now the fire brigades are preparing to do the same.

I clicked across to the BBC website to read the report on what this means for the Tory government in what is fast shaping up to be a Year of Discontent among working people.

Nothing.

Fortunately, other news purveyors have been quicker off the mark. Here’s the Evening Standard:

FBU general secretary Matt Wrack, said: “FBU members have spoken. This result, on a two-week turnaround, shows that there is remarkable strength of feeling amongst firefighters and control staff on this derisory pay offer.

“The ball is in the employers’ and Government’s court. There is still an opportunity to resolve this dispute and we will be writing to Fire Ministers and Government departments across the UK requesting urgent meetings.

“We have firefighters using foodbanks. Our members worked through the pandemic to help protect their communities, taking on extra duties to do so.

“A further real-terms pay cut is an absolutely disgusting way to thank them. Whilst strike action is always a last resort, our members simply can’t go on like this.”

Source: Firefighters reject 5% pay offer, paving way for ballot on strike action

Have YOU donated to my crowdfunding appeal, raising funds to fight false libel claims by TV celebrities who should know better? These court cases cost a lot of money so every penny will help ensure that wealth doesn’t beat justice.

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If this is why the Bank of England is making the UK recession worse, it stinks

The Bank of England: it is not your friend.

One of the strangenesses of running a political website as a commercial endeavour is that one is reliant on the articles to pull in advertising revenue, and this means more popular items take priority.

More meaningful items then take a back seat until such time as they can be funded by the other material – but fortunately, today, lots of people are enjoying the Suella De Vil song, so I have an opportunity to look at why the Bank of England is hiking interest rates and worsening the UK recession.

I’m taking the information from Professor Simon Wren-Lewis’s Mainly Macro article (link below), which suggests the most likely reason I’ve seen so far – and it isn’t to stop energy price inflation, nor is it to stop food price inflation.

No – it’s to stop wage inflation. The aim is to impoverish you by increasing the difference between what things cost and what you can afford.

Here’s Prof Wren-Lewis:

A UK recession will do almost nothing to bring energy and food prices down. Instead what has worried the Bank for some time is that the UK labour market appears pretty tight, with low unemployment and high vacancies, and that this tight labour market is leading to wage settlements that are inconsistent with the Bank’s inflation target.

You can see the reasoning behind this, just with the forthcoming strike by the Royal College of Nursing, that is calling for a 17 per cent pay increase. The Bank’s inflation target is just two per cent, and has been for many years.

The article continues:

Earnings growth is around 7.5% in the wholesale, retail, hotels and restaurants sector, about around 6% in finance and business services and the private sector as a whole.

Domestic firms are under no obligation to compensate their employees for high energy and food prices, over which they have little control and which are not raising their profits. As a result, if firms were free to choose and there was abundant availability of labour, they would offer pay increases no higher than the increases we saw during 2019.

Average private sector earnings running at around 6% are not a problem for the Bank because it is anti-labour, but because it believes wage growth at that level is inconsistent with its inflation target of 2%… Earnings growth will slow as the UK recession bites.

What this means in layperson’s terms is that, by increasing interest rates, the Bank intends to make it harder for many firms to survive in the hope that they will lay off staff, forcing more people back onto the labour market.

Then, firms would be able to offer whatever wages they wanted (above the minimum, of course) on a take-it-or-leave-it basis, and if you couldn’t make ends meet, then that would be your problem.

It is a premeditated, deliberate attempt to worsen poverty for millions upon millions of UK residents.

I wonder whether this is another unintended consequence of Brexit? When the UK was obligated to accept workers from the European Union, employers benefited from exactly the kind of loose labour market that allowed them to offer subsistence, or lower-than-subsistence, wages.

Now those workers have gone and employers are forced to take on native workers, the pendulum has swung the other way. It’s a thought, isn’t it?

Prof Wren-Lewis goes on to explain that developments in economic thinking mean that the tight labour market should not require an interest rate hike to “correct” it (his word).

nowadays macroeconomists believe it is possible to end a boom [in this case an over tight labour market] and bring inflation down without creating a downturn or recession, because once the boom is brought to an end a credible inflation target will ensure wage inflation and profit margins adapt to be consistent with that target.

The lags in the economic system mean a central bank should stop raising rates while inflation is still increasing. If a central bank believes it will lose credibility by doing this, and feels it has to continue raising rates until inflation starts falling, this will lead to substantial monetary policy overkill and an unnecessary recession.

If that is why central banks in the UK and the Euro area keep raising interest rates as the economy enters a recession, then the truth is central banks are throwing away a key advantage of a credible inflation target. Credibility is not something you constantly have to affirm by being seen to do something, but something you can use to produce better outcomes. Furthermore central banks are more likely to lose rather than gain credibility by causing an unnecessary recession.

Of course raising interest rates to 3% is not enough on its own to cause a prolonged recession. Probably more important is the cut to real incomes generated by higher energy and food prices, which is enough on its own to generate a recession. On top of that we have a restrictive fiscal policy involving tax increases and failing public services. Both together should be more than enough to correct a tight labour market. To have higher interest rates adding to these already large deflationary pressures seems at best very risky, and at worst extremely foolish.

This will affect you all.

Sadly, as I indicated at the top of the article, only a few of you are likely even to have read any of the information here – certainly not to the end. So very few of you are likely to make any preparations for it.

For the rest, the next few years are going to be very difficult indeed.

Source: mainly macro: Why is the Bank of England making the expected UK recession worse?

Have YOU donated to my crowdfunding appeal, raising funds to fight false libel claims by TV celebrities who should know better? These court cases cost a lot of money so every penny will help ensure that wealth doesn’t beat justice.

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