Tag Archives: prediction

Is ‘dire’ recession ‘until 2023’ warning really to be taken seriously or is there Tory doubletalk on the way?

Rishi Sunak: the Chancellor would love to be able to claim, just before Christmas, that the UK had bucked naysaying predictions.

We learned last week that the UK has gone into its deepest-ever recession, with Gross Domestic Product plunging by 20 per cent in the last three months alone.

Now an economist is warning that the Johnson government’s dire handling of the Covid-19 crisis means the recession will probably last until 2023, with serious consequences for the well-being of everybody in the UK.

But will it really?

I’ve heard these predictions before, and they are very handy for a struggling government.

Suppose the economy doesn’t stay in recession – or at least, that it doesn’t continue backpedalling for the three years predicted?

What do you think the Tories would do? I’ll tell you.

They’d come trumpeting their huge success in beating back the economic forces of recession, asserting that the recovery proves their Covid-19 policies were right, no matter how many people got killed!

And with more shops and businesses re-opening all the time, it seems clear that there will be a bounce-back straight away – meaning that the recession is likely to be over (in statistical terms) now, although the figures won’t be available until November.

And, of course, anybody hard-hit by that recession is unlikely to feel the benefit of that recovery; it will be for the fatcats, as is usual under a Tory administration.

Still: a good-news package that Johnson can sell to a desperate public right before Christmas – jolly hockey sticks for the Tories, what?

Source: Dire warning UK faces recession until 2023 and will fall behind US and Europe – Mirror Online

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Project Yellowhammer – and the consequences of ‘no deal’ Brexit – explained!

“Stop Brexit!”: Even British comic legend Andy Capp has a reason to fear it.

This was on a friend’s Facebook page so I make no guarantees as to authenticity.

That said, it makes about as much sense as anything we’ve had from the Conservative government.

See what you think:

Yellowhammer summary for those who haven’t read it but want to know what it says explained by someone with a vague idea.

(Note: This is currently being called the ‘Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions’ It only has that title because of Gove being caught lying about it to the select committee, and had to retract that it is, in fact, the base scenario. In many areas I’ve got business experience of, this is optimistic).

1) Most businesses aren’t ready. Big companies are likely to be more ready than smaller companies because they’ve been paying idiots like me to do so for the past months/years.

So some companies will struggle.

2) Leaving in October means also having our national inability to deal with any weather that isn’t moderate.

3) We leave around the time of half-term school holidays, which isn’t great.

4) We hope Ireland won’t cut supply of power to NI. but we can’t make them keep it going

5) Goods through Dover will drop by half. It will be slightly better in a few months. If you have family in Kent, you’ll need a helicopter to visit them at Christmas

6) If you’re going abroad (in the EU), it will take longer to get through customs. Hopefully not US Border durations.

7) Energy costs will go up, some energy companies might (will) go bankrupt.

8) We’ll have a shortage of some medicines. This also includes Vet medicines needed for animals that farmers might want to export.

9) Do you like fresh food? Shame about that. Come back in six months. Also less choice of food in general, and Christmas might be chicken in a tin.. Also we (govt) are saying we can’t assess how bad it is, despite all the unions and businesses telling us, so it’s not our fault when it’s worse than we’re saying here.

10) We think we’ll all have clean water. .Maybe a few hundred thousand people won’t. They might need bottles, or street bowsers, or rain water, rain water is good.

11) Financial Services companies might be fucked. Good job they’re not one of our biggest contributors to GDP and tax or anything.

12) International criminals and terrorists are in for a bonanza.

13) If you’re a Brit living in Europe, err, we don’t have a clue, hope the country you live in is better than us.

14) If you’re an IT company, travel company or anyone who has to send data back and forth with Europe then, err, bollocks. Not looking good. We’re not really sure.

15) Gibraltar’s fucked

16) Riots, public disorder, more homeless, people stealing bread, good job we haven’t slashed police numbers or anything, isnt it?

17) The Dartford crossing could be blocked by the traffic from Dover, which means fuel supplies in Kent, London and the SE in general might all run out. Also about 2000 job losses from refineries closing, and weeks of fuel shortages.

18) Insurance companies (that haven’t mitigated it, ahem) are going to have some problems.

19) If you’re poor, you’re going to be worse off. Actually if you’re poor, struggling, middle class or anything but rich, then you’re going to be worse off.

20) Northern Ireland is more fucked than Gibraltar. Job losses, food shortages, protests, dissident groups etc.

21) Cod Wars mark 2

22) Care homes could collapse en masse. Like, lots of them.

As you can see, nothing to worry about, certainly not all the things they also haven’t included.

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Some General Election Predictions – alittleecon

Here’s some fun – general election predictions from Alex Little, over at alittleecon.

Only the predictions themselves will appear below – if you want to read the rationales, visit the original article.  There is one prediction where VP has made observations of its own, though…

Take a look and see if you agree:

1. Who will win most seats? alittleecon prediction: Labour @ 8/11

2. Majority betting. alittleecon prediction: No overall majority @ 11/10.

3. Labour seats. alittleecon prediction: Under 305.5 @ 10/11

4. Conservative seats. alittleecon prediction: Over 277.5 @ 10/11

5. Lib Dem seats. alittleecon prediction: Over 32.5 seats @ Evens

VP says: Not a chance. This blog is based in a Liberal Democrat-held constituency and anti-LD feeling is very high indeed. They’ll be very lucky if they get into double figures.

6. UKIP seat totals. alittleecon prediction: Over 4.5 seats @ 11/8

7. SNP seat bands. alittleecon prediction: 16-20 seats @ 10/1

8. Greens to win a seat. alittleecon prediction: Yes @ 5/6

Follow me on Twitter: @MidWalesMike

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