Tag Archives: by election

Pincher resigns after losing suspension fight; that’s where the parallel with Boris Johnson ends

Chris “Pincher by name…” has resigned as an MP after losing his appeal against suspension for groping two men in a club.

His decision parallels one by Boris Johnson earlier this year – the former prime minister who was pitched out of that job after being found to have dishonestly claimed he did not know about Pincher’s misbehaviours.

Johnson had been found to have broken Parliamentary rules over the Partygate scandal and resigned in a fit of petulance, rather than suffer the indignity of his then-constituents petitioning for a by-election to get rid of him.

Pincher will also avoid the further embarrassment of a recall petition – but it seems that is the only parallel between his resignation and that of the PM his sexual shenanigans brought down.

According to the BBC, he said he came to the decision after talking with his family and staff:

He said: “I do not want my constituents to be put to further uncertainty, and so in consequence I have made arrangements to resign and leave the Commons.”

It is set to be the ninth by-election since Rishi Sunak became prime minister.

Good for Pincher; at least he has managed to do one thing in the right way.

Of course, the announcement make it possible for me to repeat the saga of how Pincher brought Johnson down – partly because many of you probably didn’t get to see it when I published it earlier this week… but mostly because I enjoy it:

Initially, he was best-known as the one who hid behind other Tories in order to shout abuse at then-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during Prime Minister’s Questions:

But on July 1, 2022, he resigned as a Tory whip after it was alleged that he groped two other men at the private Carlton Club.

In his resignation letter to Johnson, he said he “drank far too much” and “embarrassed myself and other people”.

But the apparent double sexual assault was not investigated by the Conservative Party, nor were the police, apparently, contacted.

New claims against Pincher stacked up in the following days. The BBC listed them in the following way:

The Sunday Times reported Mr Pincher had placed his hand on the inner leg of a male Tory MP in a bar in Parliament in 2017.

The newspaper reported Mr Pincher also made unwanted advances towards a different male Tory MP in 2018 while in his parliamentary office, and towards a Tory activist in Tamworth around July 2019.

The Mail on Sunday carried allegations he had made advances against an individual a decade ago, and that a female Tory staffer had tried to prevent his advances towards a young man at a Conservative Party conference.

The Independent carried allegations from an unnamed male Conservative MP that Mr Pincher groped him on two separate occasions in December 2021 and June this year.

The Sunday Times reported that the MP involved in the alleged incident in 2018 contacted No 10 before Mr Pincher was made a whip in February, passing on details of what he said had happened to him and voicing his concerns about him being appointed to the role.

Former Johnson aide Dominic Cummings was said to have claimed that the then-prime minister referred to him as “Pincher by name, pincher by nature”. But Johnson himself was said to have considered the matter closed after Pincher resigned as deputy chief whip.

This raised concerns about unequal treatment of MPs who are accused of inappropriate behaviour (or, in this case, sexual crimes). Pincher was subsequently reported to Parliament’s independent behaviour watchdog and an inquiry began.

The controversy – and Boris Johnson’s failure to act in a timely way – led to renewed speculation over his fitness to continue as the UK’s political leader. This intensified after it was stated that he had indeed known of Pincher’s behaviour before appointing him to the Tory whips’ office:

The revelation came from the BBC:

Boris Johnson was made aware of a formal complaint about Chris Pincher’s “inappropriate behaviour” while Mr Pincher was a Foreign Office minister from 2019-20, BBC News can reveal.

It triggered a disciplinary process that confirmed the MP’s misconduct. Mr Pincher apologised after the process concluded, BBC News has been told.

BBC News understands the PM and the foreign secretary at the time – Dominic Raab – knew about the issue.

The Prime Minister’s office claimed that “no official complaints [about Pincher] were ever made”.

McDonald of Salford, a crossbench peer who was formerly (as Simon McDonald) Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, blew that – and subsequent li(n)es out of the water.

In a letter to Kathryn Stone, then-Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, he stated: “This is not true. In the summer of 2019, shortly after he was appointed minister of state at the Foreign Office, a group of officials complained to me about Mr Pincher’s behaviour. I discussed the matter with the relevant official at the Cabinet Office. (In substance, the allegations were similar to those made about his behaviour at the Carlton Club.) An investigation upheld the complaint; Mr Pincher apologised and promised not to repeat the inappropriate behaviour. There was no repetition at the FCO before he left seven months later.”

The letter added that a BBC website report stated: “Downing Street has said Boris Johnson was not aware of any specific allegations when he appointed Mr Pincher deputy chief whip in February,” then added: “By 4 July, the BBC website reflected a change in No 10’s line: ‘The prime minister’s official spokesman said Mr Johnson knew of “allegations that were either resolved or did not progress to a formal complaint”, adding that “it was deemed not appropriate to stop an appointment simply because of unsubstantiated allegations”.’

“The original No 10 line is not true and the modification is still not accurate. Mr Johnson was briefed in person about the initiation and outcome of the investigation. There was a ‘formal complaint’. Allegations were ‘resolved’ only in the sense that the investigation was completed; Mr Pincher was not exonerated. To characterise the allegations as ‘unsubstantiated’ is therefore wrong.

“I am aware that [it] is unusual to write to you and simultaneously publicise the letter. I am conscious of the duty owed to the target of an investigation but I act out of my duty towards the victims. Mr Pincher deceived me and others in 2019. He cannot be allowed to use the confidentiality of the process three years ago to pursue his predatory behaviour in other contexts.”

He didn’t say Boris Johnson had been lying in his letter, but in a subsequent interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he might as well have: “I think they need to come clean. I think that the language is ambiguous, the sort of telling the truth and crossing your fingers at the same time and hoping that people are not too forensic in their subsequent questioning and I think that is not working.”

The peer’s revelations triggered a slew of new accusations against Boris Johnson and his administration.

Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner said: “The prime minister knew about the seriousness of these complaints but decided to promote this man to a senior position in government anyway. He refused to act and then lied about what he knew.”

It became apparent that Downing Street had not even provided the government’s spokesperson-of-the-day with the facts, when Dominic Raab tried, on the Today programme, to push the line that Boris Johnson had not been briefed about disciplinary action against Pincher.

Himself a former foreign secretary, Raab said he had spoken with Johnson over the last 24 hours and had been assured that the prime minister had not been briefed.

Then Lord McDonald appeared on the same programme and categorically stated that Johnson had been told everything at the time.

So Raab’s story changed by the time he got to LBC radio: “There was a review, an investigation if you like … to decide whether a formal disciplinary action or an investigation and process was warranted.

“The review, conducted under the auspices of Sir Simon – now Lord – McDonald was that disciplinary action was not warranted. That doesn’t mean that inappropriate behaviour didn’t take place. We were clear that what happened was inappropriate, but we resolved it without going for a formal disciplinary process.”

Raab said he told Pincher “in no uncertain terms” that his conduct had been unacceptable.

So Raab was saying that the complaint against Pincher had been upheld, but that did not mean he was guilty – even though Raab himself had told the MP that his conduct had been unacceptable.

Does that make any sense to you?

It didn’t make sense to Susanna Reid on Good Morning Britain, who grilled Raab over his misuse of language:

It seems this cack-handed handling of a serious matter was the last straw for many backbench Tory MPs, who said Johnson had “learned nothing” from Partygate and “the same mistakes are again being made“.

They called for a change to the rules of the 1922 Committee to allow another confidence vote to take place against him.

Later that day – July 5 – Johnson’s Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, quit – along with several junior ministers who were Parliamentary aides to Cabinet ministers: Jonathan Gullis, Saqib Bhatti, Nicola Richards, and Virginia Crosbie.

Tory vice-chair Bim Afolami was also out – he quit on TalkTV’s The News Desk show:

Andrew Murrison resigned as Johnson’s trade emissary to Morocco, as did Theodora Clarke, trade emissary to Kenya.

Ms Clarke said in her resignation letter: “To learn that you chose to elevate a colleague to a position of pastoral care for MPs, whilst in full knowledge of his own wrongdoing, shows a severe lack of judgement and care for your Parliamentary party.

“I was shocked to see colleagues defending the Government with assurances that have turned out to be false. This is not the way that any responsible Government should act.”

Attorney General Alex Chalk threw in the towel late that evening. His resignation letter stated: “To be in government is to accept the duty to argue for difficult or even unpopular policy positions where that serves the broader national interest. But it cannot extend to defending the indefensible.

“The cumulative effect of the Owen Paterson debacle, Partygate and now the handling of the former Deputy Chief Whip’s resignation, is that public confidence in the ability of Number 10 to uphold the standards of candour expected of a British Government has irretrievably broken down. I regret that I share that judgement.”

Then came a flurry of resignations, intended to fit in before Prime Minister’s Questions.

First to go on the morning of July 6 was another Parliamentary Private Secretary, Laura Trott. Her resignation letter, posted on her Facebook account, said trust in politics was of the “upmost [sic] importance”, adding “but sadly in recent months this has been lost”.

Next was Children’s Minister Will Quince, who said he was left with “no choice” after 10 Downing Street sent him out to defend Johnson with “inaccurate” lines. He said: “I accepted and repeated assurances on Monday (July 4) to the media which have now been found to be inaccurate.”

In media interviews, Quince had said he had been given assurances that Johnson had not been aware of complaints against Chris Pincher. It later emerged this was not true.

Robin Walker, Minister for School Standards, quit saying the government has been “overshadowed by mistakes and questions about integrity”.

Lee Anderson, the Red Wall Tory who was ridiculed for saying it was possible to cook nutritious meals for 30p, quit at around 10.30am. On the Pinchergate lies, he stated: “I cannot look myself in the mirror and accept this… Integrity should always come first and sadly this has not been the case over the past few days.”

Also quitting were Treasury Minister John Glen and another PPS, Felicity Buchan.

Oh – and Justice Minister Victoria Atkins.

And key backbencher Robert Halfon also announced that he had lost confidence in Johnson. In a letter, he said he was “previously against any leadership change… during Covid, a cost-of-living crisis and the war in Ukraine. However, after the events of the past few days and the resignation of Cabinet members, I feel that the public have been misled about the appointment of the former deputy chief whip [Chris Pincher].

“The parties at Number 10 Downing Street were bad enough but the appointment of this individual and the untruthful statement about what was known is unacceptable to me.”

Also withdrawing support were Chris Skidmore and Tom Hunt.

Later that day, “Levelling-Up” secretary Michael Gove publicly called for Boris Johnson to give up and go gracefully, and a delegation of Cabinet ministers attended 10 Downing Street to beg him to see sense. So Johnson sacked Gove.

This triggered a new wave of Cabinet resignations. Key among them was Michelle Donelan, who was only appointed as Education Secretary two days previously, after Nadhim Zahawi was promoted to become Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Zahawi himself appeared to have been moving to slip a knife into his boss’s back – because he was urging Johnson to quit by 8.45.

Also out was Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis, while the total number of resignations from the government climbed towards 50.

By lunchtime on July 7, Johnson finally gave in to the inevitable and resigned as prime minister.

All that, just because he could not admit making a bad decision about one of his MPs.

And now that MP is following in Johnson’s footsteps, triggering a by-election that is likely to erode the Tory landslide of 2019 even further.


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Tamworth on by-election alert as ‘Pincher by name…’ loses suspension appeal

Boris Johnson and Chris Pincher: a poor choice of friends?

A former Tory whip who used to shout abuse at Jeremy Corbyn during Prime Minister’s Questions has lost an appeal against suspension after he groped two other men – putting his constituency on by-election alert.

Chris Pincher is the MP who cost Boris Johnson his job as Prime Minister.

Initially, he was best-known as the one who hid behind other Tories in order to shout abuse at then-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during Prime Minister’s Questions:

But on July 1, 2022, he resigned as a Tory whip after it was alleged that he groped two other men at the private Carlton Club.

In his resignation letter to Johnson, he said he “drank far too much” and “embarrassed myself and other people”.

But the apparent double sexual assault was not investigated by the Conservative Party, nor were the police, apparently, contacted.

New claims against Pincher stacked up in the following days. The BBC listed them in the following way:

The Sunday Times reported Mr Pincher had placed his hand on the inner leg of a male Tory MP in a bar in Parliament in 2017.

The newspaper reported Mr Pincher also made unwanted advances towards a different male Tory MP in 2018 while in his parliamentary office, and towards a Tory activist in Tamworth around July 2019.

The Mail on Sunday carried allegations he had made advances against an individual a decade ago, and that a female Tory staffer had tried to prevent his advances towards a young man at a Conservative Party conference.

The Independent carried allegations from an unnamed male Conservative MP that Mr Pincher groped him on two separate occasions in December 2021 and June this year.

The Sunday Times reported that the MP involved in the alleged incident in 2018 contacted No 10 before Mr Pincher was made a whip in February, passing on details of what he said had happened to him and voicing his concerns about him being appointed to the role.

Former Johnson aide Dominic Cummings was said to have claimed that the then-prime minister referred to him as “Pincher by name, pincher by nature”. But Johnson himself was said to have considered the matter closed after Pincher resigned as deputy chief whip.

This raised concerns about unequal treatment of MPs who are accused of inappropriate behaviour (or, in this case, sexual crimes). Pincher was subsequently reported to Parliament’s independent behaviour watchdog and an inquiry began.

The controversy – and Boris Johnson’s failure to act in a timely way – led to renewed speculation over his fitness to continue as the UK’s political leader. This intensified after it was stated that he had indeed known of Pincher’s behaviour before appointing him to the Tory whips’ office:

The revelation came from the BBC:

Boris Johnson was made aware of a formal complaint about Chris Pincher’s “inappropriate behaviour” while Mr Pincher was a Foreign Office minister from 2019-20, BBC News can reveal.

It triggered a disciplinary process that confirmed the MP’s misconduct. Mr Pincher apologised after the process concluded, BBC News has been told.

BBC News understands the PM and the foreign secretary at the time – Dominic Raab – knew about the issue.

The Prime Minister’s office claimed that “no official complaints [about Pincher] were ever made”.

McDonald of Salford, a crossbench peer who was formerly (as Simon McDonald) Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, blew that – and subsequent li(n)es out of the water.

In a letter to Kathryn Stone, then-Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, he stated: “This is not true. In the summer of 2019, shortly after he was appointed minister of state at the Foreign Office, a group of officials complained to me about Mr Pincher’s behaviour. I discussed the matter with the relevant official at the Cabinet Office. (In substance, the allegations were similar to those made about his behaviour at the Carlton Club.) An investigation upheld the complaint; Mr Pincher apologised and promised not to repeat the inappropriate behaviour. There was no repetition at the FCO before he left seven months later.”

The letter added that a BBC website report stated: “Downing Street has said Boris Johnson was not aware of any specific allegations when he appointed Mr Pincher deputy chief whip in February,” then added: “By 4 July, the BBC website reflected a change in No 10’s line: ‘The prime minister’s official spokesman said Mr Johnson knew of “allegations that were either resolved or did not progress to a formal complaint”, adding that “it was deemed not appropriate to stop an appointment simply because of unsubstantiated allegations”.’

“The original No 10 line is not true and the modification is still not accurate. Mr Johnson was briefed in person about the initiation and outcome of the investigation. There was a ‘formal complaint’. Allegations were ‘resolved’ only in the sense that the investigation was completed; Mr Pincher was not exonerated. To characterise the allegations as ‘unsubstantiated’ is therefore wrong.

“I am aware that [it] is unusual to write to you and simultaneously publicise the letter. I am conscious of the duty owed to the target of an investigation but I act out of my duty towards the victims. Mr Pincher deceived me and others in 2019. He cannot be allowed to use the confidentiality of the process three years ago to pursue his predatory behaviour in other contexts.”

He didn’t say Boris Johnson had been lying in his letter, but in a subsequent interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he might as well have: “I think they need to come clean. I think that the language is ambiguous, the sort of telling the truth and crossing your fingers at the same time and hoping that people are not too forensic in their subsequent questioning and I think that is not working.”

The peer’s revelations triggered a slew of new accusations against Boris Johnson and his administration.

Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner said: “The prime minister knew about the seriousness of these complaints but decided to promote this man to a senior position in government anyway. He refused to act and then lied about what he knew.”

It became apparent that Downing Street had not even provided the government’s spokesperson-of-the-day with the facts, when Dominic Raab tried, on the Today programme, to push the line that Boris Johnson had not been briefed about disciplinary action against Pincher.

Himself a former foreign secretary, Raab said he had spoken with Johnson over the last 24 hours and had been assured that the prime minister had not been briefed.

Then Lord McDonald appeared on the same programme and categorically stated that Johnson had been told everything at the time.

So Raab’s story changed by the time he got to LBC radio: “There was a review, an investigation if you like … to decide whether a formal disciplinary action or an investigation and process was warranted.

“The review, conducted under the auspices of Sir Simon – now Lord – McDonald was that disciplinary action was not warranted. That doesn’t mean that inappropriate behaviour didn’t take place. We were clear that what happened was inappropriate, but we resolved it without going for a formal disciplinary process.”

Raab said he told Pincher “in no uncertain terms” that his conduct had been unacceptable.

So Raab was saying that the complaint against Pincher had been upheld, but that did not mean he was guilty – even though Raab himself had told the MP that his conduct had been unacceptable.

Does that make any sense to you?

It didn’t make sense to Susanna Reid on Good Morning Britain, who grilled Raab over his misuse of language:

It seems this cack-handed handling of a serious matter was the last straw for many backbench Tory MPs, who said Johnson had “learned nothing” from Partygate and “the same mistakes are again being made“.

They called for a change to the rules of the 1922 Committee to allow another confidence vote to take place against him.

Later that day – July 5 – Johnson’s Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, quit – along with several junior ministers who were Parliamentary aides to Cabinet ministers: Jonathan Gullis, Saqib Bhatti, Nicola Richards, and Virginia Crosbie.

Tory vice-chair Bim Afolami was also out – he quit on TalkTV’s The News Desk show:

Andrew Murrison resigned as Johnson’s trade emissary to Morocco, as did Theodora Clarke, trade emissary to Kenya.

Ms Clarke said in her resignation letter: “To learn that you chose to elevate a colleague to a position of pastoral care for MPs, whilst in full knowledge of his own wrongdoing, shows a severe lack of judgement and care for your Parliamentary party.

“I was shocked to see colleagues defending the Government with assurances that have turned out to be false. This is not the way that any responsible Government should act.”

Attorney General Alex Chalk threw in the towel late that evening. His resignation letter stated: “To be in government is to accept the duty to argue for difficult or even unpopular policy positions where that serves the broader national interest. But it cannot extend to defending the indefensible.

“The cumulative effect of the Owen Paterson debacle, Partygate and now the handling of the former Deputy Chief Whip’s resignation, is that public confidence in the ability of Number 10 to uphold the standards of candour expected of a British Government has irretrievably broken down. I regret that I share that judgement.”

Then came a flurry of resignations, intended to fit in before Prime Minister’s Questions.

First to go on the morning of July 6 was another Parliamentary Private Secretary, Laura Trott. Her resignation letter, posted on her Facebook account, said trust in politics was of the “upmost [sic] importance”, adding “but sadly in recent months this has been lost”.

Next was Children’s Minister Will Quince, who said he was left with “no choice” after 10 Downing Street sent him out to defend Johnson with “inaccurate” lines. He said: “I accepted and repeated assurances on Monday (July 4) to the media which have now been found to be inaccurate.”

In media interviews, Quince had said he had been given assurances that Johnson had not been aware of complaints against Chris Pincher. It later emerged this was not true.

Robin Walker, Minister for School Standards, quit saying the government has been “overshadowed by mistakes and questions about integrity”.

Lee Anderson, the Red Wall Tory who was ridiculed for saying it was possible to cook nutritious meals for 30p, quit at around 10.30am. On the Pinchergate lies, he stated: “I cannot look myself in the mirror and accept this… Integrity should always come first and sadly this has not been the case over the past few days.”

Also quitting were Treasury Minister John Glen and another PPS, Felicity Buchan.

Oh – and Justice Minister Victoria Atkins.

And key backbencher Robert Halfon also announced that he had lost confidence in Johnson. In a letter, he said he was “previously against any leadership change… during Covid, a cost-of-living crisis and the war in Ukraine. However, after the events of the past few days and the resignation of Cabinet members, I feel that the public have been misled about the appointment of the former deputy chief whip [Chris Pincher].

“The parties at Number 10 Downing Street were bad enough but the appointment of this individual and the untruthful statement about what was known is unacceptable to me.”

Also withdrawing support were Chris Skidmore and Tom Hunt.

Later that day, “Levelling-Up” secretary Michael Gove publicly called for Boris Johnson to give up and go gracefully, and a delegation of Cabinet ministers attended 10 Downing Street to beg him to see sense. So Johnson sacked Gove.

This triggered a new wave of Cabinet resignations. Key among them was Michelle Donelan, who was only appointed as Education Secretary two days previously, after Nadhim Zahawi was promoted to become Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Zahawi himself appeared to have been moving to slip a knife into his boss’s back – because he was urging Johnson to quit by 8.45.

Also out was Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis, while the total number of resignations from the government climbed towards 50.

By lunchtime on July 7, Johnson finally gave in to the inevitable and resigned as prime minister.

All that, just because he could not admit making a bad decision about one of his MPs.

And now the MP who triggered Johnson’s downfall has lost his appeal against suspension.

The BBC is reporting:

Chris Pincher’s appeal against a proposed eight-week suspension from the House of Commons for groping two men at a London club last year has been rejected.

In its report, Parliament’s conduct watchdog said the former Conservative deputy chief whip’s behaviour amounted to an abuse of power.

The decision means a by-election in his Tamworth seat is a step closer.

MPs will now vote on whether to approve the eight-week punishment.

The move is normally a formality and, if approved, would trigger a recall petition which could lead to a by-election.

Parliament’s standards commissioner Daniel Greenberg found Mr Pincher groped a then-employee of the House of Lords on his arm and neck, before groping his bottom.

He also found he groped a civil servant’s bottom and then his testicles.

Pincher can take cold comfort in the fact that he managed to remain an MP longer than the prime minister whose poor judgement put him in a position of power over others.

After MPs approve the suspension, and if 10 per cent of voters in Tamworth sign a petition calling for one, there will be a by-election there.

Even though the Conservatives had a 19,000 majority in 2019, it seems unlikely that they will hold the seat – given the nature of Pincher’s conduct and the failure of the Tory government of which he was a member.

The big question is whether Keir Starmer’s party – the closest rival in 2019 – has the policies needed to take the constituency.

Or will another party, with a better reputation than either of the ‘Big Two’ rock up and take over instead?


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#BorisJohnson plummets in polls after #DowningStreetParty #scandal. Will #Tories eject him?

 

 

Public opinion is swinging wildly against Boris Johnson over the allegations that a huge Christmas party was held in 10 Downing Street last December. But how far does it have to swing before his Tory colleagues stab him in the back and find another leader?

We all know what’s happened by now: a video clip has been made public, showing Downing Street staff laughing about a party at Downing Street on December 18, 2020, and discussing how to lie about it if questions are ever asked.

The revelation that government officials, and possibly ministers, were whooping it up at a time when the rest of London was in Tier 3 lockdown and people were dying alone because of social distancing restrictions they had helped impose, has provoked a wide variety of responses.

Some have been humorous (be warned that the first clip includes part of the Wham! track Last Christmas, so if you’re playing Whamageddon you may not wish to hear it. The second clip is also based on that track but isn’t the track itself so you should be okay):

Some have been incredulous:

 

And some have been acidic:

But the only response that really counts is the effect on the electorate’s voting intention – and it’s not looking good for the Tories:

This is a reversal of the usual situation, which puts the Tories on around 40 per cent and Labour in the low 30s. Keir Starmer has certainly done nothing to make this happen so the responsibility lies entirely with Johnson.

And with the media full of people in North Shropshire telling us how they’re planning to turn their back on the Conservative by-election candidate because of Johnson, it may be only a matter of days before Tory MPs decide to ditch him.

It’s what they always do, when a leader becomes a liability. And there’s ample evidence that that is what he has become.

Have YOU donated to my crowdfunding appeal, raising funds to fight false libel claims by TV celebrities who should know better? These court cases cost a lot of money so every penny will help ensure that wealth doesn’t beat justice.

https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/mike-sivier-libel-fight/


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#OldBexleyAndSidcup by-election – who’s won?

By-election: voters turn out to elect a successor to the late James Brokenshire. This is probably representative of the actual turnout.

Polling stations have closed in the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election – so who do you think has won, and (more importantly) how?

I reckoned turnout would be much lower than previously, and reports suggest this is right.

Following on from that, I think the Tory candidate will take it because it’s Labour voters and Tory swing-voters who didn’t rock up to vote; Labour voters because they know Labour is rubbish under Keir Starmer and Tory swing-voters because they know the Conservatives are rubbish under Boris Johnson.

That leaves Tory tribalists as the only large group.

We may also see large percentages of the vote taken by the smaller parties – particularly the Greens, who’ll take a lot of the “protest” votes.

Incidentally, why do we see votes for candidates as percentages of turnout, but never as percentages of the total electorate, which would be more informative if you think about it? Can’t the relevant authorities strain their intelligence enough to provide both?

Anyway, let’s have a quick poll:

If you’re still up, get a comment in and tell us your prediction – while you can!

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Amazing: StarmerLabour has won a by-election

Taking the limelight: Starmer spouts about Labour’s ‘fantastic’ win while new MP Kim Leadbeater is shunted to the side. Earlier this week he was tweeting about football rather than discussing the election, and wouldn’t go near Batley & Spen.

Congratulations are due to Kim Leadbeater after she achieved the impossible: winning a by-election for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

The circumstances in which she managed her feat were extraordinary, and are reflected in the result.

Labour threw away a majority of more than 8,000, won when Jeremy Corbyn was party leader in 2017. Batley & Spen is no longer a safe Labour seat and must be considered a Labour-Tory marginal as Ms Leadbeater won with a majority of just 323 votes.

The party – and its candidate – failed to put forward any policies at all. Ms Leadbeater merely said she would listen to voters after winning the election, and parroted Tory attack lines about there being “no magic money tree” to give nurses the pay rise they deserve.

At least one Labour representative apparently smeared the constituency’s Muslim population as violent and anti-Semitic, while authors of election literature were accused of “dog-whistle racism” over a leaflet showing Boris Johnson with Indian premier Narendra Modi.

Ms Leadbeater’s election literature suggested that she was ashamed of representing Labour. Party logos were stripped from leaflets and party colours were not used. The candidate herself wasn’t even a party member four months ago; Starmer broke Labour rules to make her a candidate in a cynical bid to win votes from the fact that she is murdered former MP Jo Cox’s sister.

And, of course, a surging Conservative Party was held back at the last minute as public opinions were swayed against the Tories because of the Matt Hancock affair scandal.

The result: a skin-of-the-teeth win due to “tribal” Labour voters who, as This Site mentioned yesterday, would have voted for a shaved monkey if it had a Labour rose next to its name on the ballot paper.

And now we have to listen to the chinless cuckoos who’ve invaded the once-great socialist party and turned it into Tory-lite, crowing about what a “fantastic result” it is.

I suppose it is a fantastic result for people who thought they were going to lose.

“What a fantastic victory… of hope over division,” said Keir Starmer, neglecting to say that the hope was that of those who must now wait in vain for Ms Leadbeater – and him – to come up with a policy programme that remotely resembles traditional Labour thinking – or that he is responsible for the division with his relentless onslaught against traditional party members and supporters.

He said nothing at all about what Labour will do in the constituency, or for it. This is because his party will do nothing. The win means he can continue as party leader for a while longer, while he searches for a soundbite that will attract voters.

He is not a principled politician. He does not have political views. His interest is only to put himself in power and to use it for his own purposes. He is, to all intents and purposes, a Conservative.

And not even a Tory in Labour clothing. Starmer despises the trappings of the working classes and has discarded them in favour of the sub-fascist iconography of Boris Johnson: a suit and a Union Flag. Only the haircut is an improvement.

And while the tribalists have helped him hold Batley & Spen, those of us with any political nous at all are abandoning Labour at the polls.

In other local elections, Labour vote shares have been plummeting while the Tories’ have been skyrocketing.

And this is after two years of Boris Johnson’s incompetence over Brexit and Covid-19, and his government’s corruption generally.

Starmer will try to spin this narrow win as a huge victory for him and for the direction he has taken Labour but nobody should be fooled – he is taking Labour down the drain.

Source: Batley and Spen: Labour narrowly hold seat in by-election – BBC News

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Labour Islamophobia: is this the reason Starmer will lose Batley & Spen?

Institutionally Islamophobic? Angela Rayner and Keir Starmer were information of serious concerns about Islamophobia in the Labour Party last November and have done nothing about it. Now we are told Labour sources are attacking Muslims (under the false flag of anti-Semitism) to justify the party’s impending loss of Batley & Spen.

This information is from Dan Hodges of the Mail, so I advise you to take it with a pinch of salt.

He says Labour Party representatives are already trying to justify their loss of the Batley & Spen by-election, even though it hasn’t happened yet.

And they’re doing it with rampant Islamophobia:

‘We’re haemorrhaging votes among Muslim voters,’ one senior Labour official tells me, ‘and the reason for that is what Keir has been doing on antisemitism. Nobody really wants to talk about it, but that’s the main factor. He challenged Corbyn on it, and there’s been a backlash among certain sections of the community.’

Remember the old saying that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”? By that token, Hodges is saying that his Labour official told him Muslims (or at least those who live in Batley & Spen) are all anti-Semites.

That is a viciously Islamophobic attitude.

Hodges goes further by saying he received a WhatsApp message (he doesn’t name the source) circulating among Muslim groups, listing five reasons not to support Labour’s candidate, Kim Leadbeater. One of them is this:

‘Her party leader Keir Starmer is pro-Israel and pro-Zionist. He needs to get a clear message in Batley and Spen.’

If this is being used as justification for the claim that all Muslims in the constituency are anti-Semites, then it is thin gruel.

Starmer is pro-Israel and pro-Zionist. Neither of those statements are anti-Semitic, for obvious reasons (not all Jews are Israelis; not all Jews are Zionists; and obviously a person can be pro-Israel and pro-Zionist without being Jewish). And just because a message is distributed around some Muslims, that doesn’t mean all Muslims agree with it.

It doesn’t even mean all Muslims who received the message agree with it.

In fact, Muslims in the constituency have many problems with current Labour policies but it seems the party doesn’t want to engage with those. Why should it, when it can simply tar all local Muslims as anti-Semites?

In doing so, of course, Labour would be taking a leaf out of the Israeli government’s handbook – where every criticism is attacked as anti-Semitic, no matter what it is.

Labour’s own institutional Islamophobia is discussed in a useful Skwawkbox article that states:

Labour’s contempt for Muslim voters and the Islamophobia deeply ingrained in the party’s right have long been obvious – and were condemned last year by a Labour Muslim Network (LMN) report.

Long before that, the party reacted to a recording of vile Islamophobic abuse against a left-wing Muslim member – by protecting the perpetrator and suspending the victim. For more than three years, with the process of expelling him ongoing.

And just after the publication of the LMN report, the party suspended a member of its National Executive Committee (NEC) of Moroccan Muslim heritage – for a statement of solidarity with Palestinians.

Acting general secretary David Evans claimed the party would implement the report’s recommendations in full – but … that has been exposed as nothing but lip service.

The LMN report was damning. As This Site reported last November, it found a whopping one-third of people of their ethnicity have witnessed Islamophobia within the party.

Worse, 44 per cent said they do not believe the party takes Islamophobia seriously and 48 per cent have lost confidence in the party’s complaints structures, according to the Labour Muslim Network investigation.

And worst of all, 59 per cent of Muslims surveyed said they did not feel well represented by the party.

In response, I wrote, “the party leadership that ignores the persecution of Palestine has made a perfunctory comment, promising to implement the report’s recommendations in a not-very-sincere way.

“The wording is cut-and-pasted from press releases about anti-Semitism and both Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner come across as not having thought about this as a serious issue at all.”

Their promise to implement the report’s recommendations appears to have been nothing but hot air.

There is a very clear conclusion to draw from all this.

While the words of Dan Hodges may be questionable, his article has highlighted institutional Islamophobia in the Labour Party.

Both Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner were made aware of it and rather than take action they have sat on their thumbs.

If Labour loses Batley & Spen because the Muslim vote moves elsewhere, they will only have themselves to blame.

Source: DAN HODGES: Who’s spreading the poison that could put the final nail in Keir Starmer’s coffin? | Daily Mail Online

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Labour suffers worst by-election result in party’s history. Will Starmer accept the blame?

What will be the excuse this time? Whatever Starmer says, the facts are clear: he has led Labour to its worst by-election result EVER. The party is on course for destruction under his leadership. If he stays, we’ll know that is what he wants.

Don’t think for a moment that the Liberal Democrats are on the rise again.

Ed Davey’s claim that his party’s victory in the Chesham and Amersham by-election means his party is now the main threat to the Tories in many areas is nothing but hot air.

No – the main shock of the by-election (triggered by the death of Tory Cheryl Gillan) is the collapse of support for the Labour Party under Keir Starmer.

Labour scraped together just 622 votes – that’s just 1.6 per cent of the votes cast, meaning the party even lost the £500 deposit it paid to take part.

It is the worst by-election result in Labour’s 121-year history.

Yes, turnout was lower than at a general election; yes, there may have been tactical voting to remove the Conservatives; and yes – Labour has never been in a position to win this particular Parliamentary seat.

But in general elections with turnout twice as high, Labour has historically won around 7,000-8,000 votes, with the 11,374 it received under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership in 2017 its best result of all.

Once again, claims that Labour would do better with any leader other than Corbyn are destroyed.

And once again, Starmer will be looking to his Big Book of Excuses for a way to explain why he is dragging a once-great socialist party down to ruin in a mire of sub-Tory neoliberalism, focus group psychobabble and flag-waving.

Once again we see that the British public wants genuine, traditional (pre-Blair) policies and won’t be fooled by sharp haircuts, sharp suits, and vague announcements.

Labour is now in crisis. If Starmer continues as leader, he could drag the party down to destruction.

Source: Chesham and Amersham: Lib Dems overturn big Tory majority in by-election upset – BBC News

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Hartlepool by-election: will Tories win because Starmer parachuted a right-winger in for Labour?

Voting: but will people in Hartlepool vote Labour after the contempt with which Keir Starmer has (allegedly) treated them?

A poll – with, admittedly, a tiny number of respondents – has suggested that the Conservatives could take Hartlepool from Labour in Thursday’s by-election.

Is this because Keir Starmer steamrolled over the wishes of local part members to parachute a right-wing candidate in?

The behaviour of Labour’s head office with regard to the election has been, reportedly, a disgrace – and if this is how Starmer plans to run the party, then voters in Hartlepool will be right to abandon him.

The problem is that the Conservatives are likely to benefit from it.

Starmer is already facing criticism that his daft antics have strengthened the Tories. How will he be able to justify himself if they take Hartlepool?

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Brecon and Radnorshire: Where did all the voters go?

A voter’s plea: But have we really seen the end of the flood of leaflets that Jane Dodds and the Liberal Democrats used to bludgeon the electorate of Brecon and Radnorshire?

So you think last night’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result was a disaster for Labour? Well, you’re right – but probably not in the way you think.

Looking at the figures, we can see that although the Liberal Democrats enjoyed a slight boost, of around 1,700 votes, that’s nowhere near the numbers they were getting when Roger Williams was the candidate back in 2005 and 2010.

When he lost in 2015, Mr Williams’s vote fell by 37 per cent. Yesterday’s result clawed back only 13.8 per cent of that loss.

It seems the Liberal Democrats managed to retain their core vote – possibly due to the almost fascistic fearmongering of the campaign (“Only the Liberal Democrats can beat the Tories here!” – and the like); some of their supporters who went to Chris Davies in 2015 may have come back home; and – yes – some Labour supporters may have lent Jane Dodds their vote to get her past the line, in the belief that a bad MP is better than a diabolical one. We shall see.

But the Liberal Democrats are still damaged. Even allowing for the fact that the by-election attracted 17 per cent fewer voters (nearly 10,000 people) it is clear that they have not regained the popularity that consistently won Mr Williams more than 17,000 votes before their calamitous coalition with the Conservative Party between 2010 and 2015. And the toxicity of Ms Dodds’ campaign won’t improve their reputation.

And remember: Plaid Cymru and the Green Party chose not to field candidates in this election. Last time they both stood candidates for election, they netted 3,028 votes between them. It seems, even with such a huge campaign, Ms Dodds could not have beaten a criminal without their help.

The Conservative vote, on the other hand, collapsed. It is true that some of the pro-Brexit vote went to the Brexit Party and if that organisation had not stood a candidate for election, Chris Davies may have been returned to Parliament – but his criminal conviction for dishonesty seems to have stuck in voters’ collective craw and they couldn’t find it in themselves to hold their noses and vote for him; they would have choked on it.

So, while turnout was down by 17 per cent, Mr Davies lost more than double that proportion of his voters – 38 per cent. Some undoubtedly went to the Liberal Democrats (or back to them; ideologically, the two parties are very close), and I think some just stayed away.

But if the Tory vote collapsed, Labour’s evaporated. The party attracted less than a quarter of the electors who supported it in 2017. Where did they all go?

Well, some certainly went to Jane Dodds, along with disaffected Conservatives. And obviously Labour will know that it cannot count on the support of people who say they are Labour but consistently “lend” their votes to the Liberal Democrats – they are themselves Liberal Democrats and should not be treated otherwise. Some will have gone to the Brexit Party, heaven help them.

And the rest? I think they stayed at home. Having seen the huge weight of resources that the Liberal Democrats were pouring into the constituency, and noted the “Project Fear” tone of the campaign, they decided to keep their powder dry and wait for a better chance to get their candidate in.

I can’t say I blame them.

Now the focus will shift to Jane Dodds. Having made any number of castle-in-the-air promises, she has to keep them. Waiting for Ofcom to make good on its demand for better broadband in Brecon and Radnorshire by next March and then claiming it as a success won’t work, because we all know about that particular cheat now. She has to do some real work.

That doesn’t mean marching up to Boris Johnson, wherever he is, and saying “stop playing with the future of our community and rule out a no-deal Brexit”, as she claimed yesterday. He would simply brush her off and carry on doing whatever he damn well pleases because he’s the prime minister and she’s a nobody.

No – Ms Dodds will need to show she can be a good constituency MP before she can presume to have any effect on the wider issues.

I think she’ll mess it up because she simply doesn’t have the chops for it – and her party’s policies won’t do anything for the people of Brecon and Radnorshire.

If you don’t believe me, watch this:

From the tone of her campaign, we can see that Ms Dodds is a typical Liberal Democrat – an unprincipled political opportunist who’ll jump on any vote-grabbing bandwagon but won’t follow through with genuinely progressive work.

She’s going to fall flat on her face, isn’t she?

And we’ll all be watching when she does.

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‘Project Fear’ wins as Jane Dodds unseats Chris Davies in Brecon and Radnorshire

Jane Dodds: She has won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election by instilling fear in voters that if they didn’t support her, convicted criminal Chris Davies would get back in.,

Congratulations are due to Jane Dodds, the new Liberal Democrat MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, who has won by convincing people that she was the best chance they had to unseat unpopular former Conservative MP Chris Davies.

But it was a narrow thing – she took 13,826 votes while Mr Davies accrued 12,401.

“People have chosen to believe in my positive Liberal vision for something better,” said Ms Dodds, in complete denial of the fact that her entire campaign was based on fear that Mr Davies would win if people didn’t vote for her.

She has no policies that are workable, although she is sure to claim credit for Ofcom’s order for better broadband in rural areas, for economic improvements ordered by Labour’s Welsh Assembly Government, and for the £1.4 million boost to healthcare courtesy of the same Labour-run Welsh Assembly.

Oh yes – she also supports remaining in the European Union, along with the other 12 Liberal Democrat MPs who have absolutely no influence in Parliament whatsoever.

Labour, whose Welsh Assembly Government will provide many of the boosts to Brecon and Radnorshire that Ms Dodds is sure to claim as her own, garnered just 1,680 votes – a huge drop in support, due entirely – it is believed – to a wish to drive Mr Davies out by any means necessary; Labour voters lent their support to Ms Dodds.

But she is unlikely to get such support again. The Liberal Democrat campaign was despicable.

Whether it was bombarding the electorate with lying leaflets, harassing them with telecanvassing calls or hanging on voters’ doorbells, Lib Dem campaigners disgraced themselves across Brecon and Radnorshire.

Some canvassers allegedly made false claims that Labour was not putting up a candidate in the by-election, and others apparently confronted Labour rivals, asking when they were going to “punch a Jew”.

All these matters are likely to be reported to the relevant authorities.

Still, congratulations are due to Ms Dodds. She has removed a Conservative from Parliament.

But people in Brecon and Radnorshire will be watching her performance very closely.

On the basis of her campaign, I’d be surprised if she gets a single vote from someone who isn’t a member of her party next time.

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