Tag Archives: general

Happy St David’s Day! Poll says Tories will lose all but two Welsh Parliamentary seats

The ballot box: a recent opinion poll suggests that Welsh people will abandon the Conservative Party en masse at the next general election.

Happy St David’s Day, Wales!

A YouGov poll for WalesOnline has stated that the Conservatives are likely to lose all but two Parliamentary seats in Wales at the next general election.

Tragically for This Writer, the MPs set to remain are both here in Powys – in Montgomeryshire, and in my own home constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire.

What’s wrong with people here? Good question!

My best guess is that the older generation are set in their ways, while the younger voters have lost all hope for the future if it’s a choice between Rishi Sunak’s economy wreckers and Keir Starmer’s pale blue Tories.

A YouGov poll for WalesOnline, released ahead of St David’s Day, shows the Conservatives’ share of the vote has slipped to just 19%, while Labour’s share has surged from 41% in 2019 to 53% now.

Among people aged 24-50, the Tory share of the vote is just 7%.

According to the Wales Governance Centre, the YouGov poll shows that based on uniform swing and current boundaries the Conservative party would keep just two Welsh seats, the lowest number since they got no seats in the 2001 election.

The only remaining Conservative seats based on this poll would be Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire, with the Tories only managing to hold on to the former by a very narrow margin. It is technically too close to call, with the Lib Dems within a couple of percentage points but on strict number the Conservatives edge it. As this is based on uniform swing of votes and assumes no tactical voting, that scenario may well not play out in reality. The seat has changed hands recently in a by-election in August 2019 after Tory MP Chris Davies pleaded guilty to claiming false expenses. It was subsequently won by the Lib Dems but reclaimed by the Tories in the general election that December.

What a horrible choice – Conservatives or Liberal Democrats!

This Writer wonders whether this might be a moment for the Green Party to make inroads into Wales. It’s doing very well in the southwest of England!

Source: New poll shows Conservatives close to wiped out in Wales in general election – Wales Online


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Jeremy Corbyn might not represent Labour at election again – but will he stand?

Keir Starmer and Jeremy Corbyn: this image is from a time when Starmer wasn’t overtly trying to stab his former party leader in the back (or, indeed, in the front).

In response to the headline, this should give you a fairly good idea of the situation:

It’s a response to a unilateral declaration by current Labour leader Keir Starmer that former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will not be allowed to stand as a candidate for the party in the next general election.

Starmer should not have the ability to make such a statement, as any decision over who represents an individual constituency should be up to its local Labour members, and Mr Corbyn has not done anything to disqualify him from standing – we have a decision by the party’s ruling NEC that says so.

The announcement has generated a large amount of opposition:

And, as mentioned above, there is concern that Starmer had not right to make the announcement he did:

And there’s the personal element – that Starmer and his supporters are trying to bully Mr Corbyn out of the party whose aims he used to represent so well but which they have perverted into what might well be described as a right-wing Tory/Establishment front:

Mr Corbyn himself is certainly not taking this lying down, as his statement makes clear:

It says [boldings mine]:

“Ever since I was elected as a Labour MP 40 years ago, I have fought on behalf of my community for a more equal, caring and peaceful society. Day in, day out, I am focused on the most important issues facing people in Islington North: poverty, rising rents, the healthcare crisis, the safety of refugees, and the fate of our planet.

Keir Starmer’s statement about my future is a flagrant attack on the democratic rights of Islington North Labour Party members. It is up to them – not party leaders – to decide who their candidate should be. Any attempt to block my candidacy is a denial of due process, and should be opposed by anybody who believes in the value of democracy.

“At a time when the government is overseeing the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, this is a divisive distraction from our overriding goal: to defeat the Conservative Party at the next General Election.

“I am proud to represent the labour movement in Parliament through my constituency. I am focused on standing up for workers on the picket line, the marginalised, and all those worried about their futures. That is what I’ll continue to do. I suggest the Labour Party does the same.”

So in Mr Corbyn’s view, Starmer is divisive, flagrantly undemocratic and flouts due process.

I can see a challenge coming down the line – possibly in the courts.

And even if Starmer wins, I can see Mr Corbyn finally accepting that the Labour Party has abandoned him, and standing as an independent – which is what Starmer should fear more than anything else.

His people do:

Labour party officials are said to be looking for a strong candidate in the constituency, which Corbyn has held since 1983. “The local party is likely to be difficult and the campaign will be very tough if Jeremy stands as an independent,” a source told the Guardian.

Bring it on, then. If Starmer succeeds on blocking Mr Corbyn out of Labour, he won’t block him out of Islington North – and he will create a much bigger problem for himself than he has already.


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Disunited Tories don’t seem to WANT to win the next election

With their ratings in the opinion polls plummeting, the Conservatives need unity more than ever.

But their party, even in Parliament, has fragmented into a coalition of vaguely-allied rabble, and a series of poor leaders has allowed the rot to set in.

Watch this:

What do you think?

Is there any way back for the Conservatives, as they stand now?


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Polls say Tories are set to lose 300 seats in the next election. Well…

Apparently the latest polls are predicting a huge loss for the Conservatives at the next general election, that may make them only the third largest party – behind the SNP.

But are they really likely to lose 300 seats?

Well…

Here’s an interesting analysis by A Different Bias:


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While true Labour MPs like Ian Byrne struggle for reselection, why does this ex-Tory get a free pass?

Christian Wakeford: this Tory defector to the Labour Party gets to skip the process of selection to stand as a Labour representative in the next general election, while people who have been Labour members all their lives are being pushed out by a hostile right-wing leadership.

The Labour Parliamentary selection process has plumbed a new depth of bias.

This Site has already reported the way the right-wing (dare I say far – for the Labour Party – right-wing?) Labour leadership is trying to squeeze left-wing candidates including MP of the Year Ian Byrne out of being selected to stand at the next UK general election.

Now we learn that Christian Wakeford, the former Conservative MP who crossed the floor to the Labour benches, has been allowed to skip the selection process entirely.

That’s right – a former Tory is being allowed to avoid the judgement of Labour members and voters in his constituency so he can stand for election again, whether the local party wants him or not.

Here’s Damo – and be warned, his language is spicy:

@kernowdamo Tory defector gets a pass. #DamoRants#rants#politicaltiktok#politiktiktok#politics#ukpolitics#britishpolitics#labour#tories#keirstarmer#socialists#fyp ♬ original sound – Damo

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Demonstration on Saturday to Demand a General Election | Beastrabban\’s Weblog

The masses on the march: will the demo demanding a general election have the support of this one (the People’s Vote march from 2018?

Posted for information:

I got this reminder the other day from the Arise Festival of left Labour ideas that there’s a demonstration organised in London demanding a general election. I can’t go, but I’m putting it up for those who may be able to.

Saturday, 5 November, 12.00, Embankment Place, London, WC2N 6, United Kingdom.

The People’s Assembly is asking for your continued support to help us take our simple message onto the streets – General Election Now! Let’s say No to another unelected Tory PM.

Full details & spread the word here – Labour bloc details here.

Source: Demonstration on Saturday to Demand a General Election | Beastrabban\’s Weblog#

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Has ‘factional intrigue’ blocked this former Labour MP from standing to represent her community?

Emma Dent Coad, the former Labour MP for Kensington.

Former Kensington and Chelsea MP Emma Dent Coad has been blocked from standing to represent the constituency again. According to her, this is due to “factional intrigue” in the Labour Party.

In a statement, the former MP has said trade union backing should have seen her longlisted in the selection process, but the candidate selection process is now being factionally abused and is not fit for purpose.

This Writer recalls her outspokenness on behalf of the people of Kensington after the inferno that rendered Grenfell Tower uninhabitable – a fire that was entirely preventable, caused by the installation of entirely unsuitable cladding.

Here’s her statement:

“I am devastated that the Labour Party has blocked me from standing to once again represent my community in Parliament, the community I have spent the last 20 years of my life fighting for. At the same time, I am angry that local members and our local community in Kensington have been denied the opportunity to vote in a free and fair contest, which has been sacrificed for the sake of factional intrigue.

“This campaign has never been about me. I stood to offer dedicated representation for the people of Kensington in Parliament, from someone who knows and cares for our communities. From my role as local councillor and Labour Group leader, to my campaigning efforts as Kensington’s MP on housing issues so dear to our hearts, I have only ever sought the chance to champion our people, whose voices all too often go unheard.

“If I have been outspoken in my politics, it is due to my passion and care for Kensington – for my neighbours and friends – and because of my burning desire to stamp out injustice and build a fairer, more equal society. Upsettingly, unaccountable Labour officials have exploited this outspokenness to unjustly prevent me from standing for the seat I won just five years ago, the seat I came agonisingly close to holding even in 2019, despite the trade union backing which should have seen me longlisted automatically. It is plan as day that the candidate selection process now being run by the Party is being factionally abused and is not fit for purpose.

“I deplore injustice, and through my 16 years on the Council, various reports and my recent book, ‘One Kensington’, I have done my utmost not only to draw attention to the very real inequalities in our community but to actively fight it, from the council chamber to the House of Commons. Above all, my driving ambition has been to combat the inequality which scars our community, the systematic disregard for working-class people which led to the atrocity of the Grenfell Tower fire, and which has led many to lose faith with the political process.

“These people deserve and need representation in Parliament. I hope that Labour’s eventual candidate will gain the respect and trust of all communities in Kensington. It won’t be easy.”

The Guardian reports that the former MP, who was a member of the Socialist Campaign Group, the Corbyn-loyal wing of the parliamentary Labour party, was the target of a number of stories in the tabloids during her time as an MP:

They included a string of stories on the London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey whom she had called a “token ghetto boy” and “scumbag”.

Labour sources said Dent Coad had been served with a “due diligence” dossier and met with officials on Friday evening. As well as some of the tabloid news stories about Dent Coad’s criticism of Conservatives and the royal family, officials expressed concern that Dent Coad had spoken at Stop the War Coalition demonstrations, though the group has not been officially proscribed.

So: hearsay and activity that is not prohibited. That’s not a good look for Labour officials.

A Labour source said that selection procedures were stringent and involved high levels of due diligence. “It’s right that the Labour party expects prospective MPs to uphold the highest standards. Under Keir’s leadership that’s not going to change,” the source said.

The report goes on to state that the exclusion is one of a number where leftwingers have been excluded from a list of candidates:

Maurice McLeod, a Labour councillor and longstanding anti-racism campaigner, said he had been disallowed from contesting the Camberwell and Peckham seat.

In Sedgefield, the seat of former prime minister Tony Blair that Labour lost to the Tories in 2019, 13 constituency officials resigned in protest after the CLP chair was blocked from standing after making a series of critical social media comments about Starmer. The candidate, Paul Daly, has resigned from the party.

Earlier this week, Sam Tarry, the MP for Ilford South, was deselected by his local party in favour of the Redbridge council leader, Jas Athwal, in the culmination of a long-running local dispute.

It seems the frontrunner to be Labour’s candidate for the seat at the next general election is Mete Coban, a youth campaigner from Hackney who founded the My Life My Say campaign.

Source: Labour blocks ex-Kensington MP Emma Dent Coad from running at next election | Labour | The Guardian

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Video shorts: Charles Walker says the Tories cannot win the next election

It’s a few days old but nothing has changed – even amid the Conservative Party conference.

Tory Charles Walker reckons his party cannot win the next general election, even if it’s in two years’ time.

He says the best the Tories can do now is try to leave the UK in a better financial situation than it is now.

What he doesn’t say is that this will probably involve a huge amount of hardship for millions of – poor – people and that many of us may not survive. Look at what his party has deliberately inflicted on people with long-term illnesses and disabilities.

Here’s the clip; draw your own conclusions:

Oh – and polling expert Sir John Curtice seems to agree:

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Half a million people call for an early general election

Almost six times as many people as voted Liz Truss into 10 Downing Street are demanding an early general election in the hope of having her ejected.

Parliament will have to debate the petition because it has topped 100,000 signatories – and this may create a problem for Truss, who does not have the full support of her party in Parliament (especially after the godawful stink she has made in just four weeks).

The call for an election has been echoed by former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries.

She tweeted that there was ‘widespread dismay’ at the prime minister – and we can conclude that she meant among her fellow Conservative MPs.

The government responded to the petition on September 20, saying nothing would change: “A change in the leader of the governing party does not trigger a general election – this has been the case under governments of successive political colours.”

But that isn’t the issue now.

The issue now is that the UK’s current – unelected – leadership has crashed the economy and cannot accept its role in having done so, and millions of people think it is time for a new administration.

Source: 500,000 people sign petition calling for early general election

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Are Tory MPs thinking of triggering a GENERAL ELECTION, just to get rid of Truss?

It’s being reported that Liz Truss is threatening to strip Conservative MPs of the party whip if they don’t vote to support her insane economy-breaking mini-budget bid to cut taxes for the people who least need the money.

And how are they taking it?

Not well, it seems:

Here’s one possible reason the members of the Conservative AND UNIONIST Party might think an election – that Truss would lose – is in their own best interests:

So it might be wiser to trigger a general election before Truss can really screw up the nation and end Tory political dominance for all time, and before she manages to destroy the union of England (which the Tories currently dominate) with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (which they don’t).

That is the thinking, it seems.

In an otherwise entirely-joyless autumn and winter, it will be fun seeing how this narrative turns out.

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