Tag Archives: Protocol

Has the DUP been outmanoeuvred by Rishi Sunak and his ‘Windsor Framework’?

Well, they didn’t get what they wanted.

The Democratic Unionist Party wanted the removal of all borders between Northern Ireland and both Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland, and that hasn’t happened (although border controls have been lifted to a very great extent).

They wanted the removal of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has happened – but they didn’t want it to be replaced by a new system called the ‘Windsor Framework’.

The green and red lanes were proposed by the European Commission in 2021 and rejected by the UK government of the day. Now they’ve been revived as a panacea by Sunak.

But the real kicker for the DUP is that Sunak has said the Northern Ireland Assembly will decide whether the ‘Windsor Framework’ should be supported, next year.

This means, I think, that if the DUP wishes to oppose it, there needs to be a functioning Assembly – if that party continues to refuse to take up its seats there, stopping it from working, then government of Northern Ireland goes back to Westminster, which will support the new deal.

Either way, it seems the DUP is checkmated because the Assembly will probably back it.

But with no advantage in going back, and an opportunity to snub Sinn Fein by refusing, what do you think the DUP will do?

Here’s Maximilien Robespierre to explain in greater detail:

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Rishi Sunak explains new Northern Ireland trade deal to Parliament

UK prime minister Rishi Sunak has struck a new deal with the European Union on the movement of goods to and through Northern Ireland – and it looks like it’s a good one!

Here, he explains the details of what’s being called the Windsor Framework:

The gist is that there will be a ‘Green Lane’ for goods going into NI, and they won’t be checked, while goods going through the province and into the Republic (or the other way, and into the UK) will be subject to customs procedures.

That’s what the EU offered before, and the UK rejected, but I understand the mood music playing in Westminster at the moment is saying we shouldn’t worry about that at the moment.

It will be interesting to see what the Democratic Unionist Party in NI will have to say about it – will they be able to find a reason not to resume their seats in the Stormont Assembly?

And what will the Conservatives in the European Research Group (ERG) have to say about it?

We know what UK Labour leader Keir Starmer said about it. Here he is:

He said he wouldn’t snipe – but he did!

One wonders how long the apparent detente between the two largest political parties will hold.

The BBC has published a checklist of the changes and new measures in the Windsor Framework, which I reproduce below. We’ll all be able to use it to check if anything goes wrong:

Green lane/red lane

  • Goods from Britain destined for Northern Ireland will travel through a new “green lane”, with a separate “red lane” for goods at risk of moving onto the EU
  • Products coming into Northern Ireland through the green lane would see checks and paperwork scrapped
  • Red lane goods destined for the EU still be subject to normal checks
  • Mr Sunak said this would mean food available on the supermarket shelves in Great Britain will be available on supermarket shelves in Northern Ireland.
  • New data-sharing arrangements would be used to oversee the new system
  • Where smuggling is suspected, some custom checks may still be carried out on green lane goods
  • Business moving goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain would not be required to complete export declarations
  • Bans on certain products – like chilled sausages – entering Northern Ireland from Britain would be scrapped

Pets, parcels and medicines

  • No new requirements on moving pets from Northern Ireland to Britain
  • Pet owners visiting Northern Ireland from Britain (but not travelling on to Ireland) only have to confirm their pet is microchipped and will not move into the EU
  • Under old rules, pet owners had to have vet-issued health certificate and proof of up-to-date rabies vaccination, while dogs needed tapeworm treatment before every visit
  • Medicines for use in Northern Ireland would be approved by UK regulator, with the European Medicines Agency not having any role
  • Parcels will not be subject to full custom declarations

VAT and alcohol duty

  • Under the Northern Ireland Protocol, EU VAT rules could be applied in Northern Ireland
  • Under the new deal, Mr Sunak says the UK can make “critical VAT” changes which include Northern Ireland
  • For example if the government raises or cuts alcohol duty this will apply to pubs in Northern Ireland as well as the rest of the UK, he said

Stormont brake

  • Under the protocol, some EU law applies in Northern Ireland, but politicians had no formal way to influence the rules
  • New agreement introduces a “Stormont brake” which allows the Northern Ireland Assembly to raise an objection to a new rule
  • The process would be triggered if 30 MLAs (representatives in the Stormont Assembly) from two or more parties sign a petition
  • 14 day consultation period would follow, after which, if 30 MLAs still support it, there would be a vote in the assembly
  • To pass, it would need support from both unionists and nationalist representatives
  • The brake cannot be used for “trivial reasons” but reserved for “significantly different” rules
  • Once the UK tells the EU the brake has been triggered, the rule cannot be implemented
  • It can only be applied if the UK and EU agree
  • This new process is not subject to oversight by the European Court of Justice oversight
  • The document states that: “Any dispute on this issue would be resolved through subsequent independent arbitration according to international, not EU, law.”
  • The EU has its own safeguard – if Northern Ireland starts to diverge significantly from the bloc’s rules, the EU has its own power to take “appropriate remedial measures”

Northern Ireland Bill scrapped

  • Government has confirmed it is ditching the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill
  • The controversial legislation, introduced under ex-PM Boris Johnson, would have given the UK the power to scrap the old protocol deal
  • Legal opinion published by the government says there is now “no legal justification” for going ahead with it

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Can Brexiteer Steve Baker be trusted on Rishi Sunak’s new Northern Ireland deal?

Northern Ireland: what will Rishi Sunak’s replacement for the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol of Brexit achieve?

Arch-Brexiteer Steve Baker seems very happy about whatever deal Rishi Sunak has secured with the European Union over the movement of goods into and through Northern Ireland:

But can his word be trusted?

He’s got a particular viewpoint, very strongly asserted over the last eight years, more or less.

The Democratic Unionist Party, which is refusing to take its place in the Northern Irish Assembly at Stormont until a deal is struck that it supports, may feel differently. It is currently the second-largest party in that assembly and may wish to continue finding fault because the longer it stays out, the less time Sinn Fein – the largest party – will have as nominal leaders (NI is ruled under a power-sharing agreement but appearances seem to mean a lot to the DUP).

And Boris Johnson is lurking in the background in Westminster. He’s likely to be stirring up dissent against anything Rishi Sunak does because he wants to be prime minister again. And there are a lot of Tory MPs who reckon they owe him a debt for getting them into their Parliamentary seats.

Finally, there’s a question of democracy. The deal is likely to be debated in Parliament, but will there be a vote on it? If not, then can it really be heralded as the panacea Baker claims it is?

Why shouldn’t there be a vote? Is Sunak’s deal really that shaky?

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Can Rishi Sunak keep faith with Northern Ireland AND the EU over Brexit?

Prime Minister’s Questions was dominated by the question of whether Rishi Sunak has been able to negotiate a deal – to replace the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit agreement – that will be acceptable to everyone.

I think we all know the answer to that already!

The current situation creates an artificial trade border in the Irish Sea, meaning that goods going into and out of Northern Ireland are treated as though they are still going into and out of the European Union; this is to ensure that the border between NI and the Irish Republic remains open in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.

The problem is that the Democratic Unionist Party says this is an insult to United Kingdom sovereignty and Northern Ireland should enjoy exactly the same privileges (and disadvantages) as the rest of the UK.

It is the second-largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont, and should therefore be part of the power-sharing government there – but its members won’t take their seats until the situation is resolved, so NI does not currently have a working devolved Assembly.

The DUP’s case has been taken up by hard Brexiters in Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party at Westminster, and it has been suggested that some Cabinet members may resign if any deal allows the European Union continued power over trade in Ulster.

To complicate matters further, Labour’s Keir Starmer has offered to support a deal brought forward by Sunak, in order to make it possible for him to get it past any dissenters.

Sunak and other Tories have pointed out that this is giving him a “blank cheque”, and tantamount to supporting continued EU power in NI.

Sunak himself has been accused of weakness because he is perceived to be bullied by the hard-Brexiteers in his party.

What’s the solution? It’s hard to tell. But here’s the debate – both in Parliament and (twice) in the BBC’s Politics Live studio.

I was live-tweeting at the time and have inserted my comments into the discussion to provide extra information.

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Brexit: Suella Braverman ‘threatens to resign’ if she doesn’t like changes to NI protocol

Suella Braverman and Rishi Sunak: that vile gaze of mutual adoration says it all. I don’t think her threat to resign is real.

Do you think she’d be able to stay resigned, if she decided to actually do it this time?

Suella Braverman reckons she’ll head for the backbenches if Rishi Sunak’s latest attempt to negotiate a deal to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit agreement doesn’t satisfy the Democratic Unionists in Ulster and Westminster, and (we may expect) the Conservative Party’s own European Research Group (ERG), of which she is a leading member.

At least, that’s what we’ve heard.

Ms Braverman has already resigned her position as Home Secretary once – only to take it up again the very next week – and she has brazenly refused to accept the consequences of evidence showing that she is a security risk who should not have the job.

So we really have no reason to believe anything she’s saying now.

Happily, we have all been able to extract some mirth from the situation, as it has created considerable hilarity on Twitter (and, one presumes, elsewhere). Consider:

It’s affecting her work, too…

The worst that can happen is if she stays in-post.

Source: Suella Braverman ‘threatens to resign’

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Will the DUP’s election gamble backfire as Northern Ireland heads for another poll?

Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party has forced the province into another election after the Assembly there failed to elect a Speaker, or First or Second Ministers.

The DUP has refused to participate in the power-sharing arrangement at the Stormont Assembly since elections in May, when Sinn Fein became the largest party there for the first time.

Its members say this is because of the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Agreement, which keeps Northern Ireland aligned with some EU trade rules to ensure goods can move freely across the Irish land border.

If you want evidence of this, here’s Sky News:

This is very odd behaviour, though – because the Protocol puts Northern Ireland in a better position than the rest of the UK. NI businesses are much better-positioned to profit from the current situation because they can still trade with the European Union relatively frictionlessly.

And think of the practicalities. Suppose you are a trader in goods that perish relatively quickly. Wouldn’t you want to pass them on to another trader just across the Irish land border than go through the rigmarole of having to send them across the sea to Scotland, by which time they may well have gone off?

One is led to question whether this is just sour grapes from the party that used to have the largest number of members in the Assembly.

And the simple fact is that the NI Protocol isn’t going to change – for the foreseeable future at least. It would take a considerable amount of negotiation between the UK and EU, and changes to the policy positions of both that would most likely be acceptable to neither, in the current political climate.

Irish voters know that. They’re not like voters in England who allow the right-wing press to lead them by the nose. They can see that the DUP is on a hiding to nothing. And I wonder what they will do about it in an election that will most likely take place on December 15.

My bet is that the DUP will lose more seats, and another party replace it as the second most well-represented in Northern Ireland – one that might be able to meet agreement with Sinn Fein and restore the Stormont Assembly to full working order.

It wouldn’t be politics. It would simply be good business.

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Is optimism for UK and EU to come together about NI Protocol… misplaced?

The bank holiday weekend may be over, but this article is being produced in the period before everybody goes back to work – so I’m still putting up material that has interested me – and I hope it interests you. Make of it what you will:

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Liz Truss is forcing the EU to confrontation over the NI protocol. Or will it wait for a better UK government?

Another ‘grace period’ in which the Northern Ireland Protocol of the UK-EU Brexit agreement is not fully implemented has come to an end and the UK’s Tory government has again failed to respect the deadline.

This means the full effect of the protocol is still not being felt. In the video clip below, Phil Moorhouse argues that the EU has chosen not to formally object because its leaders are hoping the Tories are now in their twilight days and will be removed from power in the UK after the next general election, following which they can have an adult conversation with whoever succeeds them:

It seems that events have already overtaken the clip, in fact. Here‘s the BBC:

The UK has told the EU it will continue delaying customs checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, despite legal action from Brussels over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The EU is considering its next steps.

The EU has launched a series of lawsuits over what it sees as the UK’s failure to comply with checks on the movement of farm produce from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

It has also started legal action over legislation that would allow the UK to alter the protocol, introduced by Liz Truss when she was foreign secretary.

Phil’s opinion that the UK will never agree to end the ‘grace periods’ seems correct. He’s mistaken in believing the EU won’t launch legal action.

So now what?

It’s hard to tell because the EU’s response will be quiet during the period of mourning for Queen Elizabeth II.

Considering the aims of the European Research Group (ERG) that appears to be controlling UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, it seems clear that a confrontation is coming that the UK will lose badly. Perhaps it’s better to wait for a more reasonable UK government.

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EU to launch court action against Liz Truss’s smuggler’s charter for Northern Ireland

I can’t say I blame the European Union chiefs.

As mentioned on This Site before, Liz Truss’s plan to ease the burden on businesses caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit deal effectively creates a “smuggler’s charter”.

It creates the concept of “green lanes” and “red lanes” for trade, with goods coming from Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) into Northern Ireland and which are staying there using the green lane – meaning no checks and minimal paperwork, while goods moving from Great Britain through NI into Ireland or the wider European Union would use the red lane –  continuing to be checked at ports in Northern Ireland.

How would anybody know the “green lane” goods were stopping in Northern Ireland – or even whether the goods in the lorries were really as described in the paperwork?

I previously suggested that, alongside plans to ease checks on goods coming into the UK from the EU, this could create a people-smuggling pipeline all the way through to Ireland, wrecking any strategy to prevent it put up by Priti ‘Send ‘Em To Rwanda’ Patel.

The UK also wants the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice (ECJ) to have no future role in deciding disputes involving the protocol, with an independent arbiter sitting in judgement instead.

Independent, as defined by whom? I can see legal disputes over who should judge rattling on until Doomsday.

In response, the EU has indicated it will restart legal action it began in March last year, when it accused the UK of delaying, without consultation, the enforcement of parts of the protocol relating to customs checks – and may go further by taking the UK to the ECJ over claims it did too little to set up border control posts and share data with the EU.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if the very law intended to remove the UK from ECJ judgments led to it facing just such a fate?

The problem facing the UK’s Tory government – particularly those dunces Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – is that unionists in Northern Ireland are likely to tear up the Good Friday Agreement if they can’t get free trade between the Province and Great Britain.

That could lead to a resurgence of the infamous “Troubles”.

Sadly, the Labour opposition has no better ideas. Keir Starmer has said negotiation with the EU is the best way forward – but advocated using “guile”, which implies that he wants to deceive the EU into giving UK vested interests what they want.

Level heads can see that no workable solution is being suggested by anybody. They all seem determined to upset each other rather than find a way forward.

How sad to see our supposed national and international leaders squabbling like children.

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Why is Keir Starmer calling for the Northern Ireland Protocol to be fixed BY DECEPTION?

Deceiver: Keir Starmer.

Labour leader Keir Starmer has said that a new law is not needed to fix problems with the Northern Ireland Protocol; the UK can achieve it by deceiving the European Union.

Read:

Proposed legislation to disapply part of the Northern Ireland Protocol is not the way forward, Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer has said.

Sir Keir accepted there were practical problems with the protocol but said he thought they could be fixed through negotiations, “guile and hard work”.

The protocol legislation is expected to be published on Monday.

“Guile” is defined by the Cambridge Dictionary as “the practice of deceiving people or using other dishonest methods to achieve your aims, or the ability to deceive people for this purpose.

So by advocating guile in negotiations with the European Union, Starmer is suggesting that the UK’s representatives should lie.

Now we have proof that he is untrustworthy, from his own lips.

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