Tag Archives: Survation

Voters in rural areas are deserting Boris Johnson and the Tories. Why would that be?

Tractor factor: more people than farmers live in the countryside – but will they usher in twilight for the Tories?

A survey of voters in rural areas has found that the Tories are about to lose their lead over Labour in the countryside.

This is the reason This Writer is sceptical about Somerton and Frome MP David Warburton’s reasons for saying he has been admitted to a psychiatric hospital with shock due to his suspension from the Tory whip for sexual misconduct and drug abuse.

Whether he meant it to be or not, it looks like he’s trying to get people to look on him (and his currently-former party) kindly.

And it smacks of whataboutery: people in rural areas have perfectly good reasons to shun the Conservatives this year – concerns over planning and the ‘levelling up’ agenda, but it seems they’re being asked to vote Tory anyway, out of sympathy for one who has been accused – whether falsely or not.

I hope the ploy doesn’t work this time (for a change). The figures – from that most accurate of pollsters, Survation – suggest that it may not:

The Survation survey of Cornwall, Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Norfolk and Gwynedd, Wales found that 36% of voters in the countryside now intend to vote Labour at next month’s local elections, two points behind the Tory vote share.

That is a 7.5% swing to Keir Starmer ’s party. At the 2019 General Election 46% backed the Tories and only 29% Labour.

I don’t like Starmer’s Labour – for very good reasons; he’d be a nightmare if he ever got into Downing Street – but anything that makes the Tories think again would be welcome right now.

Source: Boris Johnson losing countryside support as rural voters desert Tories in droves

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Agony for Labour as it falls further behind in the polls WHEN THE TORIES ARE IN TROUBLE

Read it and weep:

That’s right: Labour has fallen to 11 points behind the Conservatives, according to that most accurate of pollsters, Survation.

This is at a time when Boris Johnson is embattled over racism, over plans to privatise the NHS, criminalise the RNLI, and withdraw funding for overseas aid. Those are just topics I recall off the top of my head.

Keir Starmer is continuing to lose ground to a party, and a leader, that continues to demonstrate that it is unfit for government.

If he can’t make any headway against Johnson’s incompetence, racism and, let’s face it, sheer malevolence, then he’s not going to win any general elections.

He needs to give up before he does Labour any more damage. But we all know he won’t, don’t we?

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Will Labour celebrate as more reliable Survation poll puts party only 11 POINTS behind Tories?

Uninspired: Keir Starmer searches for something else to blame, having realised that saying Labour’s problems are all due to Jeremy Corbyn won’t work any more.

This Site suggested, back when YouGov put Labour 18 points behind the Tories, that the figure might not be entirely accurate.

YouGov is a Tory-run polling organisation, remember. It shows, doesn’t it?

Now we have figures from Survation – the pollster whose figures have most accurately described voting intentions for the last few years – and they’re not much better!

Survation puts Labour a colossal 11 points behind the Tories. The Conservatives are up six points to 44 per cent, while Labour has plummetted five points to 33 per cent. That means they were level-pegging in the company’s previous survey.

But wait – there’s worse.

Boris Johnson’s approval rating has shot up to four per cent, while Keir Starmer is now languishing at -11 per cent. It’s a rise of 11 points for Johnson, while Starmer’s ratings have been falling steadily since May last year. He started with 17 per cent in May last year and has lost 27 points over the 12 months since.

On the question of who would make the best prime minister, Starmer hasn’t been a contender since September last year. Boris Johnson leads by 17 points, with support from 45 per cent of voters, while only 28 per cent thought Starmer would do a better job.

And people are under no illusions about the cause of the party’s collapse:

The question now is how much longer Starmer can hang on before he realises that nobody believes him any more when he blames Jeremy Corbyn.

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Polls flip-flop over which party takes the lead. Who do you believe?

Shortly after YouGov – often labelled a Tory puppet pollster – claimed Labour was fourth-placed in the opinion polls, even though it was only six points behind the Conservatives, the party came on top of a new poll by our most accurate polling firm.

Survation put Labour’s support at 29 per cent – a whopping 11 per cent above its placing in the YouGov poll. The Conservatives were languishing on 23 per cent, a point below where YouGov put them.

Who do you believe?

Source: Labour takes six point lead in the polls, Survation reveals

What were our expert commentators saying about a ‘Brexit backlash’ against Labour, again?

It turns out everyone who said that Labour, as well as the Conservatives, suffered a loss of votes at the local elections last week because of its Brexit policy… was wrong.

This is a day of revelations. Read the findings, courtesy of the most reliable UK polling company, Survation:

“On balance, there does not appear to have been a major Brexit backlash against Labour in Remain areas or in Leave areas.

“A range of other factors will significantly affect voting in local elections, regional elections, general elections, and European elections.”

The Survation report states: “For every 1% higher the Leave vote was within a local authority in 2016, in 2019 Labour received 0.08% fewer votes within the local authority than in 2015.”

This shows that Labour experienced a decline in vote share in Leave areas – but the Brexit effect was not “major” according to the report.

I seem to recall a commentator in the social media saying last week that disgruntlement over Brexit had a negligible effect on the election results, and that other issues were far more likely to have comee into play.

Who was that, again? Oh yes…

It was me.

Source: Exclusive: No “major Brexit backlash” for Labour in locals, new analysis shows – LabourList

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Labour steams ahead in latest poll as challenges and smears come to nothing

What are the anti-Corbyn mob going to do now?

We’ve had smear after smear – the anti-Semitism allegations are a busted flush now, actually creating a danger that genuine anti-Semitism will go unnoticed.

We’ve had a new challenge to the party’s current direction in the form of Turncoat Tom Watson’s “Future Britain Group”.

And we’ve had the departure of eight Labour MPs for “TINGe” – The INdependent Group of elitists, as it has been dubbed.

The result? Here it is, according to the most accurate polling company currently working in the UK, Survation:

That’s right – Labour is now the most popular political party in the UK, with 39 per cent of the vote.

The Tories trail by four points, having lost five, presumably due to public reaction to the Brexit fiasco.

And the other parties and groups are nowhere – particularly TINGe, which appears to have sunk without trace.

M’good colleague Steve Walker, over at Skwawkbox, reckons that Labour’s poll improvement may be connected with an improved focus on positive campaigning, coupled with a refusal to engage with right-wing trolls.

There’s substance to the claim, too; I was chatting with a friend in the supermarket yesterday, who said she was having success online, just by posting a link to the Labour manifesto and asking people to identify what they don’t like about it.

Personally, I think there is a place for engagement with right-wing trolls – here on news-based websites. Part of our job should be to bust the myths that are told about the Left.

Skwawkbox points out that, less than two years ago, the Conservatives were polling at 50 per cent.

Let’s see if – despite the party games, lies and trolling – Labour can get to the same level before another year is over.

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Survey shows Britain wants to remain in EU – so the Mail concocts a blatant May-supporting LIE

Propaganda: The Daily Mail’s ‘fake news’ front page.

How many people will be fooled by this fake news – and this fake newspaper?

The Daily Mail‘s front page yesterday (November 28) stated that a Survation poll showed the British people believe Theresa May’s comprehensively-rubbished Brexit deal is “the best on offer” – a meaningless claim as it is the only deal on offer, but how many Heil readers are going to recognise that?

The article stated: “Voters want Tory MPs to rally behind Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a poll shows today.

“According to the Survation survey for the Daily Mail, 52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table. Only 19 per cent disagreed.

“And 41 per cent said the Commons should back the withdrawal agreement – compared with 38 per cent who want it voted down.

“Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent. Reversing Brexit would damage our national standing, according to 47 per cent.”

But the poll actually shows that Britons would rather remain in the European Union than put up with Mrs May’s pathetic plan.

Here’s journalist J.N. Paquet on Twitter to explain:

So only 37 per cent of those who answered the poll support Mrs May’s deal. Nearly two-thirds did not.

And 59 per cent did not want MPs to vote for it on December 11 (or whenever the ‘meaningful’ vote takes place).

So nearly half those polled thought Mrs May should resign if she loses the vote.

Oh – and look! “EU said Brexit agreement is the only one on table.” But the Mail stated “52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table”. What do the other 48 per cent support, then?

So it doesn’t matter what the options are – only 35-37 per cent of those polled support Mrs May’s deal. Other options always poll higher, no matter whether the choice is remaining in the EU or leaving without a deal.

Now we see that remaining in the EU earns between 44-50 per cent of the vote, no matter what the other options might be.

This is the only negative aspect of the poll: Mrs May’s Brexit beats the possibility of a Labour government – perhaps because Labour has never made clear exactly what its version of Brexit would be?

Again, Labour loses out – again, most likely, because we don’t know the shape of a Labour Brexit.

Perhaps the TV debate will change this, if Jeremy Corbyn opens up and explains a little of Labour’s alternative plan.

So we see that the Mail‘s report is – deliberately? – misleading.

The majority of those surveyed do not support Theresa May’s Brexit agreement.

More of those who took part supported remaining in the European Union.

There will be a lot more of this nonsense over the next two weeks.

Propaganda sheets like the Daily Mail cannot be trusted to provide accurate information. People should go to original sources where possible.

Spread the word.

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British people want another vote on Brexit – and Jeremy Corbyn may be ready to support it

Jeremy Corbyn has been in Lisbon.

Pollsters Survation have outdone themselves this time.

Not only have they revealed that Labour has an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, but they have also shown that the electorate wants another chance to vote on Brexit.

And Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn may be willing to indulge them.

According to that august publication the Portugal Resident, Mr Corbyn “hinted that he could be open to holding a second referendum on Brexit as the consequences of leaving the European Union become clearer”.

The public want a second referendum after the Government botched the first round of Brexit negotiations, according to a new poll.

The Survation poll showed 50% of people now believe there should be another vote on the final deal. Just 34% think no further referendum is needed.

The poll also showed that 41% of people were increasingly fearful about Britain’s prospects outside the European Union.

Source: Public want another Brexit vote – Latest Brexit news and top stories – The New European

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Labour right-wingers miscalculate badly with ‘crisis’ claim as poll shows EIGHT-POINT lead over Tories

Well ahead: But according to Roy Hattersley, Labour is making itself unelectable.

Roy Hattersley must be hoping the Earth will open up and swallow him.

On the day Survation – the only polling company that correctly predicted the result of the 2017 general election – posted an eight-point lead for the Labour Party, Mr Hattersley published an article in The Guardian claiming Labour would make itself “unelectable” if the Left (followers of Jeremy Corbyn) were allowed to take control.

Let’s have a look at what he had to say:

“Momentum – a party within the party which is dedicated to moving Labour to the far left of the political spectrum – is on the point of winning control of Labour’s policy, programme and constitution.”

Not true. Momentum is not a Communist organisation but supports Jeremy Corbyn’s centre-left vision for the party. It acts as a support system for the vast majority of Labour Party members who support Mr Corbyn and want to be able to participate fully in party democracy, which has been dominated by the right-wingers since Tony Blair became party leader in the 1990s. While Momentum may have supported and facilitated the candidacy of many members standing for positions of responsibility, there is no intention to dictate what those members do; the aim is to facilitate an open, democratic Labour Party, powered by its members.

“Momentum does not disguise how it will use the power which domination of the party machine guarantees. The shift to the left will begin with a revision of Labour rules and continue with the replacement of moderate MPs and councillors with Momentum nominees.”

More accurately: Momentum is helping grassroots Labour members break the stranglehold of a right-wing elite on the nomination of Labour council and MP candidates, facilitating the creation of a more democratic party.

“Fears about victory for the far-left helps to hold down Labour’s opinion poll lead to 4-5% at a time when the government’s incompetence should put him 20 points ahead.”

This has been superceded by the Survation poll – and the right-wing extremists Mr Hattersley prefers have been stoking the fears he mentions with nonsense rumour-mongering when they could have been joining the majority of party members to present unified opposition to the incompetent Tory government.

Basically, the article is a long “Reds-under-the-bed” screed that would not have been out of place in the McCarthy-era USA.

Mr Hattersley is trying to blind the country to the fact that the enemy he wants us to believe is within the Labour Party is actually the majority of the party’s membership. He is trying to undermine democracy.

Fortunately, the Survation poll shows the people of the UK aren’t having any of it.

Commentators with more level heads than Mr Hattersley currently seems to own have been drawing the obvious conclusions:

Supporters of Mr Corbyn and his version of the Labour Party cannot celebrate yet, though: The Survation poll result means right-wingers everywhere will be stepping up their underhanded tactics to keep good government out of the corridors of power.

For example, the Torygraph has reported that businesses are being told to expect a Corbyn government, saying:

“A paper issued by CME Group entitled “What to Expect from a Prime Minister Corbyn” was sent to investors and business leaders last month, and included a prediction that a Labour government would lead to a possible “nightmare scenario for the pound”.

“It is one of a series of cases of major organisations preparing for Mr Corbyn coming to power in the weeks Mrs May’s minority government has been rocked by a series of damaging rows and Cabinet resignations, as well as growing uncertainty over negotiations with Brussels over Britain’s departure from the European Union.”

Funny – This Writer thought the Pound has been suffering because of Theresa May’s determination to go through with a ruinous departure from the European Union, with Sterling only losing value whenever Mrs May opens her mouth to give another silly speech.

Expect more of the same – especially as Theresa May’s government continues to disintegrate.

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