The Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland found itself facing a thorny problem after Rishi Sunak announced his new ‘Windsor Framework’ deal for trade between Northern Ireland, Great Britain and the European Union.
That party had been using the lack of a hard-Brexit-supporting agreement on trade as an excuse not to take its seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont, after elections that made Sinn Fein the largest party group there.
But Sunak’s deal has been welcomed almost universally, leaving the DUP with very little wiggle-room.
It left party leaders scrabbling for time in which to find a face-saving way forward.
Now it seems they have found it: pass the buck onto a specially-created committee, act according to its recommendations and – if anything goes wrong – use it as a scapegoat.
Here’s Maximilien Robespierre with the details:
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The Democratic Unionist Party wanted the removal of all borders between Northern Ireland and both Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland, and that hasn’t happened (although border controls have been lifted to a very great extent).
They wanted the removal of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has happened – but they didn’t want it to be replaced by a new system called the ‘Windsor Framework’.
The green and red lanes were proposed by the European Commission in 2021 and rejected by the UK government of the day. Now they’ve been revived as a panacea by Sunak.
But the real kicker for the DUP is that Sunak has said the Northern Ireland Assembly will decide whether the ‘Windsor Framework’ should be supported, next year.
This means, I think, that if the DUP wishes to oppose it, there needs to be a functioning Assembly – if that party continues to refuse to take up its seats there, stopping it from working, then government of Northern Ireland goes back to Westminster, which will support the new deal.
Either way, it seems the DUP is checkmated because the Assembly will probably back it.
But with no advantage in going back, and an opportunity to snub Sinn Fein by refusing, what do you think the DUP will do?
Here’s Maximilien Robespierre to explain in greater detail:
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UK prime minister Rishi Sunak has struck a new deal with the European Union on the movement of goods to and through Northern Ireland – and it looks like it’s a good one!
Here, he explains the details of what’s being called the Windsor Framework:
The gist is that there will be a ‘Green Lane’ for goods going into NI, and they won’t be checked, while goods going through the province and into the Republic (or the other way, and into the UK) will be subject to customs procedures.
That’s what the EU offered before, and the UK rejected, but I understand the mood music playing in Westminster at the moment is saying we shouldn’t worry about that at the moment.
It will be interesting to see what the Democratic Unionist Party in NI will have to say about it – will they be able to find a reason not to resume their seats in the Stormont Assembly?
And what will the Conservatives in the European Research Group (ERG) have to say about it?
We know what UK Labour leader Keir Starmer said about it. Here he is:
He said he wouldn’t snipe – but he did!
One wonders how long the apparent detente between the two largest political parties will hold.
The BBC has published a checklist of the changes and new measures in the Windsor Framework, which I reproduce below. We’ll all be able to use it to check if anything goes wrong:
Green lane/red lane
Goods from Britain destined for Northern Ireland will travel through a new “green lane”, with a separate “red lane” for goods at risk of moving onto the EU
Products coming into Northern Ireland through the green lane would see checks and paperwork scrapped
Red lane goods destined for the EU still be subject to normal checks
Mr Sunak said this would mean food available on the supermarket shelves in Great Britain will be available on supermarket shelves in Northern Ireland.
New data-sharing arrangements would be used to oversee the new system
Where smuggling is suspected, some custom checks may still be carried out on green lane goods
Business moving goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain would not be required to complete export declarations
Bans on certain products – like chilled sausages – entering Northern Ireland from Britain would be scrapped
Pets, parcels and medicines
No new requirements on moving pets from Northern Ireland to Britain
Pet owners visiting Northern Ireland from Britain (but not travelling on to Ireland) only have to confirm their pet is microchipped and will not move into the EU
Under old rules, pet owners had to have vet-issued health certificate and proof of up-to-date rabies vaccination, while dogs needed tapeworm treatment before every visit
Medicines for use in Northern Ireland would be approved by UK regulator, with the European Medicines Agency not having any role
Parcels will not be subject to full custom declarations
VAT and alcohol duty
Under the Northern Ireland Protocol, EU VAT rules could be applied in Northern Ireland
Under the new deal, Mr Sunak says the UK can make “critical VAT” changes which include Northern Ireland
For example if the government raises or cuts alcohol duty this will apply to pubs in Northern Ireland as well as the rest of the UK, he said
Stormont brake
Under the protocol, some EU law applies in Northern Ireland, but politicians had no formal way to influence the rules
New agreement introduces a “Stormont brake” which allows the Northern Ireland Assembly to raise an objection to a new rule
The process would be triggered if 30 MLAs (representatives in the Stormont Assembly) from two or more parties sign a petition
14 day consultation period would follow, after which, if 30 MLAs still support it, there would be a vote in the assembly
The brake cannot be used for “trivial reasons” but reserved for “significantly different” rules
Once the UK tells the EU the brake has been triggered, the rule cannot be implemented
It can only be applied if the UK and EU agree
This new process is not subject to oversight by the European Court of Justice oversight
The document states that: “Any dispute on this issue would be resolved through subsequent independent arbitration according to international, not EU, law.”
The EU has its own safeguard – if Northern Ireland starts to diverge significantly from the bloc’s rules, the EU has its own power to take “appropriate remedial measures”
Northern Ireland Bill scrapped
Government has confirmed it is ditching the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill
The controversial legislation, introduced under ex-PM Boris Johnson, would have given the UK the power to scrap the old protocol deal
Legal opinion published by the government says there is now “no legal justification” for going ahead with it
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Prime Minister’s Questions was dominated by the question of whether Rishi Sunak has been able to negotiate a deal – to replace the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit agreement – that will be acceptable to everyone.
I think we all know the answer to that already!
The current situation creates an artificial trade border in the Irish Sea, meaning that goods going into and out of Northern Ireland are treated as though they are still going into and out of the European Union; this is to ensure that the border between NI and the Irish Republic remains open in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement.
The problem is that the Democratic Unionist Party says this is an insult to United Kingdom sovereignty and Northern Ireland should enjoy exactly the same privileges (and disadvantages) as the rest of the UK.
It is the second-largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont, and should therefore be part of the power-sharing government there – but its members won’t take their seats until the situation is resolved, so NI does not currently have a working devolved Assembly.
The DUP’s case has been taken up by hard Brexiters in Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party at Westminster, and it has been suggested that some Cabinet members may resign if any deal allows the European Union continued power over trade in Ulster.
To complicate matters further, Labour’s Keir Starmer has offered to support a deal brought forward by Sunak, in order to make it possible for him to get it past any dissenters.
Sunak and other Tories have pointed out that this is giving him a “blank cheque”, and tantamount to supporting continued EU power in NI.
Sunak himself has been accused of weakness because he is perceived to be bullied by the hard-Brexiteers in his party.
What’s the solution? It’s hard to tell. But here’s the debate – both in Parliament and (twice) in the BBC’s Politics Live studio.
I was live-tweeting at the time and have inserted my comments into the discussion to provide extra information.
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My word. Putting a Brexiteer in charge of trade is a disaster, isn’t it?
Kemi Badenoch has agreed a new memorandum of understanding with Italy. She reckons it makes trade easier. But in fact, before Brexit, very little paperwork was required to trade there and now she has to find out how Italians allow foreigners to trade there – and tell traders.
Then she has to go to other countries, find out how they trade with foreigners, and explain that to traders. So with each country in the EU, UK traders will have to learn new trading rules.
She talked about bringing trade barriers down, but the most important barrier to trade is Brexit, and she’s doing nothing about that.
Acknowledging that Brexit has caused problems, she said any change brings pluses and minuses. But what are the pluses?
She talked about the UK having an independent seat at the World Trade Organisation, as if we didn’t have one throughout the time the UK was a member of the European Union.
Her crowning disaster is saying that the UK can overcome trade barriers more quickly now than it would have been able to as a member of the EU – but of course, as a member of the EU, there would have been no barriers at all to trade with other EU countries.
Here’s Maximilien Robespierre to explain the above – and more – in detail:
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The joy of Jonathan Pie is the way his clips highlight the difference between what a news reporter might say on-air, and what they actually may think.
In this case, we see him discussing how striking workers may be upsetting the apple-cart while he’s on-air, and expressing support for those same workers when he isn’t.
And it is very clear which line of discussion we are expected to support.
Here’s the clip. If you don’t agree with striking workers after this, you may have no soul:
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Michael Gove: lies, damned lies and FAKE statistics – to counter the nonsense claims of swivel-eyed Brexiteers like June Slater?
Michael Gove has been reprimanded by the UK Statistics Authority for claiming that the UK has signed trade deals with 70 foreign countries that have tripled the nation’s trading income – because it hasn’t happened.
We’ll come to an analysis of that shortly, but first… Why?
Did he do it to counter the even-more-wild-and-weird claims of so-called ‘Chief Gammon’ June Slater, a swivel-eyed harridan who haunts such reputable channels as GB News.
She said Rishi Sunak was a “mediocre socialist” who wants to reverse Brexit, among many other rants, as you can hear for yourself, courtesy of Maximilien Robespierre:
Next thing you know, Michael Gove crops up – presumably in his role as Minister for Intergovernmental Relations – to tell us that Brexit is going swimmingly and trade has improved massively, thanks to these trade deals with 70 countries that are bringing in £800 billion.
There’s one problem: there are no such deals and he seems to have made up the whole story.
Here’s Phil Moorhouse on A Different Bias:
So there you have it. There aren’t trade deals with 70 other countries and so they haven’t brought in £800bn since 2016.
In fact, trade has fallen since Brexit bit at the beginning of 2021. Brexit – so far – has been hugely harmful to the United Kingdom.
But neither Gove nor Sunak can say that with sharks like June Slater waiting to bite them. Can they?
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Pittance: key workers have put up with pathetic pay rises – if their pay can be said to have risen at all – for far too long and are ready to quit because of it.
Around one third of key workers in the public sector (32%) have already taken steps to leave their profession to get a job in another field or are actively considering it, according to new TUC polling published today.
According to TUC analysis, that means around 1.8 million public sector workers are seriously thinking about quitting their jobs for good.
In both education and health and social work, the proportion of key workers who have taken steps to leave or are actively considering it is around the same, at about a third of the workforce (34% in education and 31% in health).
The new TUC polling, conducted by YouGov, comes as the union body warns ministers that public services are facing a “mass exodus” of key workers unless ministers deliver “decent pay rises” for key workers.
The government imposed significant real terms pay cuts on key workers in the public sector earlier this year, sparking a wave of ballots for industrial action across education, health and local government this autumn and winter.
Unison, RCM, NASUWT and NEU started balloting their members this week.
Pushed to the brink by low pay
The government’s decision to hold down pay for key workers in the public sector is worsening the public sector recruitment and retention crisis, according to the TUC – highlighting the new poll findings.
Almost half (45%) of key workers in the public sector say the government approach on pay has made them more likely to leave their job in the next one to three years.
For workers in health and social care, the number rises to 50%.
Of those that say they have taken steps to leave or are considering leaving, around half cite low pay (52%).
Feeling undervalued (47%), a poor work life balance (33%) and excessive workloads (31%) are also major factors.
Latest data shows that NHS England is operating short of almost 130,000 staff due to unfilled vacancies. This represents a vacancy rate of 9.7 per cent.
In the education sector, one in eight newly qualified teachers (NQTs) leave the profession after one year in the job, with almost one-third of NQTs (31%) leaving within their first five years.
The union body says that these unfilled vacancies, on top of a decade of underfunding, has left public services “cut down to the bone” – placing huge amounts of pressure on public sector workers.
Brutal decade of pay cuts
The union body says key workers across the NHS face another year of “pay misery” after more than a decade of having their wages held down by successive Conservative governments.
Recent TUC analysis shows that many frontline staff in the NHS will see their pay packets shrink this year in real terms:
Nurses’ real pay will be down by over £1,100 this year
Paramedics’ real pay will be down by over £1,500 this year
Hospital porters’ real pay will be down by £200 this year
Maternity care assistants’ real pay will be down by £600 this year
The TUC says that this year’s pay cuts come on top of a brutal decade of pay cuts for key workers in the public sector.
Recent analysis by the union body shows that in real terms:
Nurses’ real pay is still down £4,300 compared to 2010
Paramedics’ real pay is still down by £5,600 compared to 2010
Porters’ real pay is still down by £1,300 compared to 2010
Maternity care assistants’ real pay is still down by £3,200 compared to 2010
In the education sector, teachers have already lost around a fifth of the value of their pay due to government pay cuts between 2010 and 2021, according to the NEU.
The real term pay cuts imposed this year will see the majority of teachers’ pay worth 25% less than it was in 2010, according to NASUWT analysis.
NAHT analysis suggests school leaders’ pay is down 24%’ since 2010.
Support urgently needed for key workers
The TUC is calling on the government to urgently prioritise key worker pay and public services funding in their fiscal event on 17 November.
The union body says ministers must:
Give key workers in the public sector cost-of-living proofed pay rises
Raise the minimum wage to £15 an hour as soon as possible
Invest in public services – reversing the impact of rising inflation and ensuring the spending measures set out in the 2021 comprehensive spending review are not only delivered but improved upon
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:
“Key workers in the public sector helped get the country through the pandemic.
“But many are now at breaking point because of a toxic mix of low pay, unsustainable workloads and a serious lack of recognition.
“After years of brutal pay cuts, nurses, teachers, refuse workers and millions of other public servants have seen their living standards decimated – and now face more pay misery.
“It is little wonder morale is through the floor and many key workers are considering leaving their jobs for good.
On the prospect of industrial action, Frances added:
“If there is large-scale public sector strike action over the months ahead, the government only has itself to blame.
“They have chosen to hold down public servants’ pay while giving bankers unlimited bonuses.
“Ministers must change course. Without decent pay rises for key workers in the public sector, we face a mass exodus of staff.
“And it would be bad for our economy. As the country teeters on the brink of recession, the last thing we need is working people cutting back on spending even more.
“More money in the pockets of working people means more spend on our high streets.
“Enough is enough. It’s time to give our key workers in the public sector the decent pay rise they are owed.”
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Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party has forced the province into another election after the Assembly there failed to elect a Speaker, or First or Second Ministers.
The DUP has refused to participate in the power-sharing arrangement at the Stormont Assembly since elections in May, when Sinn Fein became the largest party there for the first time.
Its members say this is because of the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Agreement, which keeps Northern Ireland aligned with some EU trade rules to ensure goods can move freely across the Irish land border.
If you want evidence of this, here’s Sky News:
This is very odd behaviour, though – because the Protocol puts Northern Ireland in a better position than the rest of the UK. NI businesses are much better-positioned to profit from the current situation because they can still trade with the European Union relatively frictionlessly.
And think of the practicalities. Suppose you are a trader in goods that perish relatively quickly. Wouldn’t you want to pass them on to another trader just across the Irish land border than go through the rigmarole of having to send them across the sea to Scotland, by which time they may well have gone off?
One is led to question whether this is just sour grapes from the party that used to have the largest number of members in the Assembly.
And the simple fact is that the NI Protocol isn’t going to change – for the foreseeable future at least. It would take a considerable amount of negotiation between the UK and EU, and changes to the policy positions of both that would most likely be acceptable to neither, in the current political climate.
Irish voters know that. They’re not like voters in England who allow the right-wing press to lead them by the nose. They can see that the DUP is on a hiding to nothing. And I wonder what they will do about it in an election that will most likely take place on December 15.
My bet is that the DUP will lose more seats, and another party replace it as the second most well-represented in Northern Ireland – one that might be able to meet agreement with Sinn Fein and restore the Stormont Assembly to full working order.
It wouldn’t be politics. It would simply be good business.
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Is this more proof that the Liz Truss Tory government is actually insane?
Many seem to think it is. Here’s Professor Tim Wilson:
And here’s a more detailed analysis from the BBC’s Politics Live:
Whichever way you see this, it’s a huge shot in the foot for Liz Truss and her government, and a shocking failure of diplomacy. Relations with India may not recover for a considerable period of time.
What do you think of it?
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