Home2025-07-21T22:11:13+00:00

Business rate rise belies Labour’s claim to be supporting UK pubs

Share this post:

They say one thing – and they do another.

Labour’s spokespeople – most notably Rachel Reeves – have been talking themselves blue in the face, trying to convince hospitality businesses and their patrons that the government wants them to thrive.

But in practice, every move the government makes has worsened the situation.

The latest is a forthcoming rise in business rates that – while expected – is disproportionate when weighed against footfall and takings, which have fallen significantly.

The BBC has reported it as follows:

“Pub landlords have warned the government of “dire consequences” if planned increases in business rates come into force in 2026.

“But a Treasury spokesperson insisted the government is “protecting pubs, restaurants and cafes with the Budget’s £4.3bn support package.”

“Landlord Luke Honeychurch, said the tax increase on his pub would leave him “unable to pay myself a wage at all”.

““At the moment we pay around £100 a month,” he explained.

“Next year, it will go up to £820 a month”.

““At the moment I’m already only taking half the minimum wage, around £6 an hour. But this is going to mean me earning nothing at all. That’s just unsustainable.””

Government spokespeople keep talking up a planned £4.3 billion “support package” – but hospitality businesspeople seem to consider this to be more window dressing than a serious attempt to save the industry.


Please take a moment to complete the Vox Political Reader Survey.
Your answers are anonymous and will help shape future coverage.
Click here to take part.


The Budget has confirmed that from April 1, 2026, the government will apply new, permanently lower business-rates multipliers for “Retail, Hospitality and Leisure” properties – shops, pubs, restaurants, and leisure venues – with rateable values below £500,000.

For these “qualifying” properties, the “small business RHL multiplier” will be 38.2p, as opposed to the “standard RHL multiplier” of 43.0p (for 2026/27) — meaning that their rate bills will lower than the standard business-rates.

The aim is said to be to give long-term certainty and structural support to high-street hospitality & retail businesses — rather than temporary, year-by-year relief.

This is completely undermined by the fact that hospitality properties have been revalued and are likely to see their business rates increase by up to 76 per cent at the same time.

The government is offering transitional relief, with bills capped for a short period rather than rising by the full amount instantly.

The government has also signalled it will encourage licensing authorities (local councils) to grant more flexibility to pubs, restaurants, and venues — easier licences for late-night openings or extended hours, outdoor dining, and generally simplified planning/licencing conditions for hospitality.

This is supposed to help high-street hospitality venues adapt, diversify, and — in theory — increase revenue opportunities rather than strictly limiting them to “old-style pub hours.” Landlords say it is pointless at a time when they are limiting their opening hours due to lack of footfall – because people can’t afford to come out.

The government also says it will appoint a “Retail and Hospitality Envoy” to champion these businesses internally — claiming that this shows a commitment at policy-level to support and review regulation around the sector. More window-dressing?

There are huge problems with the government’s plan – that ministers have not bothered to address:

The new multipliers (38.2p / 43p) and business rate relief only apply to properties with rateable values of less than £500,000. Pubs or hospitality venues with higher valuation (or larger footprint) may pay the “high-value” multiplier instead.

Because properties are being re-valued (based on 2024 data), many pubs are getting much higher “rateable values”, which — even with a lower multiplier — will mean they may end up paying nearly twice as much as before.

The transitional relief and protections are temporary/phased, so pubs may still face significant increases to their bills if costs (wages, energy, inflation) continue rising and customers’ prosperity does not improve enough for them to start coming out again.

And industry representatives have been ignored.

Remember the #TaxedOut campaign?

It called for the restoration of a 75 per cent business rate relief scheme that was scrapped this year; the new scheme doesn’t provide anything close to that kind of protection.

It also called for a reduction of VAT on hospitality services.

And like many others, it demanded the reversal of the plan to increase employer National Insurance contributions for employees.

These would have been lifelines for hospitality businesses, but Rachel Reeves and other government ministers have withdrawn them.

There are regional variations: I live in Wales, where the hospitality/retail-leisure sector currently benefits from a 40 per cent discount on non-domestic rates bills for eligible pubs, restaurants, hotels and so on, subject to a cap of £110,000 per business across all Welsh properties.

And the Welsh Government announced this month (December 2025) a package of extra support, meaning that if a business’s rates bill would increase significantly due to the revaluation, the rise will be phased in over two years if the increase is more than £300 next year.

Is a collapse of pub culture really on the cards?

From what I understand, the situation could become very bad indeed – perhaps worse than many policymakers seem to appreciate.

The combination of revaluation, tapered relief and broader cost pressures means many pubs may effectively see a doubling of business-rates bills over a short period — which for small, tight-margin pubs can be the difference between survival and closure.

The warnings from people on the ground suggest the numbers are already “unpayable”. This is not about a few marginal venues: it feels systemic.

Because pubs — especially in smaller towns and rural areas — are social infrastructure, closures hit beyond economics and into community cohesion; these are hubs for socialising – working-class gathering places. So this crisis has a cultural dimension, and is not just about business-accounting.

And the fact that many demands from the #TaxedOut campaign remain unmet means the current plan can only be considered a stopgap, not a solution.

From what we’re seeing, it is more than plausible that many more pubs, especially those that are independent, could close in the coming years.

The outcome may well be consolidation: chains and big operators that can absorb shocks survive, while smaller locals vanish – exactly what the landlords in the BBC article feared.

And we should fear it too. The government may welcome it – but do you really want the price you pay for a night out to be dictated by a faceless corporation whose only concern is how much cash they can screw out of you?

Share this post:

Loading ad...

How an Oxford economist got Labour – and the Budget – wrong.

Share this post:

Simon Wren-Lewis, Oxford professor and Mainly Macro blogger, seems to be a little naive in his understanding of the Labour Party’s current direction and the meaning of its policies.

You can read his full article here.

But in deference to readers who have complained that I quote my sources too much, let’s dive into the issues he raises….

To read the rest – and it’s top-notch analysis, head over to The Whip Line.

A subscription unlocks all my analysis and helps keep independent UK political journalism going.

Share this post:

Plan to scrap some jury trials is a wrong-headed power-grab

Share this post:

David Lammy’s plan to scrap jury trials for crimes with sentences of less than three years is a serious blow against justice, according to the evidence.

The Justice Secretary announced a scheme in which juries will be removed from trials of all but the most serious crimes, like murder, robbery and rape. The less serious crimes will be heard by volunteer community magistrates.

According to the BBC,

“Lammy said the new system would get cases dealt with a fifth faster than jury trials.

“He added that it was necessary as current projections have Crown Court case loads reaching 100,000 by 2028, from the current backlog of almost 78,000.

“This means that currently a suspect being charged with an offence today may not reach trial until 2030.

“Six out of 10 victims of rape are said to be withdrawing from prosecutions because of delays.

“A defendant’s right to a jury trial would also be restricted to prevent them from “gaming the system”, Lammy said.

“The reforms to the jury process will remove the right for defendants to ask for a jury trial where a case can be dealt with by either magistrates or a new form of judge-only Crown Court.

“Critics of restrictions to trial by jury – including almost all barristers – say it won’t have any impact on the backlogs because the real problem has been cuts to the Ministry of Justice.”

This was borne out by barrister Joanna Hardy Susskind when she appeared on the BBC’s Politics Live show to explain the reasons the legal profession are against the change…

To read the rest – and this one is well worth reading, I promise you, head over to The Whip Line.

A subscription unlocks all my analysis and helps keep independent UK political journalism going.

Share this post:

Investigation admits that Hillsborough Law will NOT make police face justice

Families of victims of the Hillsborough tragedy now have no way of seeing justice done on the police who wronged them, because all those officers are now retired.

And the only solid thing to come out of decades of investigations – the Hillsborough Law – is so toothless it turns a duty of candour into a polite suggestion.

Here’s The Guardian:

“The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) found that 12 police officers, most of them senior, would have faced disciplinary cases of gross misconduct if they were still serving.

“However, no former officer will face disciplinary proceedings because they have all retired. Some, including Peter Wright, the chief constable of South Yorkshire police at the time of the disaster, have died.

“Ten of the men whom the IOPC said would have faced gross misconduct cases were in the South Yorkshire force, including senior officers responsible for safety at Hillsborough. The IOPC listed six gross misconduct allegations against Wright, including for seeking to minimise the force’s responsibility and deflect blame on to the victims, Liverpool football club supporters.

“Two other men were senior officers in West Midlands police, which was appointed to investigate the South Yorkshire force after the disaster. Mervyn Jones and Michael Foster would have faced allegations that they “failed to investigate effectively” and were “biased against supporters in favour of South Yorkshire police”.

“The IOPC said in the report that it had found 110 complaints upheld or cases to answer against former officers, including for “falsehood and prevarication”, “discreditable conduct”, “abuse of authority” and “neglect of duty”.

“Some people whose relatives died at Hillsborough told the Guardian they welcomed the findings, but were outraged that the IOPC did not find more cases to answer against South Yorkshire police officers for falsely blaming Liverpool supporters.

“The IOPC has explained its view that in the absence of a duty of candour to positively assist an investigation, in 1989 the South Yorkshire force and its officers were not breaking the law or conduct rules by “presenting their best case” about the causes of the disaster, even though it involved withholding crucial information and amending hundreds of officers’ statements.

“The jury at the second inquests into the disaster found in April 2016 a series of failings by South Yorkshire police, and that the victims were unlawfully killed owing to gross negligence manslaughter by the officer in command, Ch Supt David Duckenfield. The jury also determined that no behaviour by Liverpool supporters contributed to the disaster.

“Duckenfield was then acquitted in a criminal prosecution in 2019. No police officer has been convicted of any criminal offences in relation to the Hillsborough failings, and none faced disciplinary proceedings at the time they were serving.

“After Operation Resolve, an investigation overseen by the IOPC into how the disaster happened, the watchdog has found Duckenfield would have faced 10 gross misconduct cases, including for his notorious lie that Liverpool supporters had forced open an exit gate to gain entry to the stadium. In fact Duckenfield had ordered the wide gate to be opened, to relieve serious congestion outside the ground.

“Supt Roger Marshall and Supt Bernard Murray, who had senior crowd safety roles, would also have faced gross misconduct cases, the IOPC said, as would the then South Yorkshire police assistant chief constable Walter Jackson. He was off duty but on call, and was at the match; the allegation against him was that: “ACC Jackson failed to organise and direct junior-ranking police officers to help save lives … ACC Jackson failed to take control of the disaster.”

“Sir Norman Bettison, who was a chief inspector at South Yorkshire police and later became chief constable of Merseyside police, would have faced allegations that he “provided misleading and inaccurate press statements” which minimised his role at South Yorkshire police after the disaster, and was “deliberately dishonest about his involvement in the disaster” when he applied for the Merseyside position. The Liverpool MP Ian Byrne has written to the Cabinet Office calling for Bettison to be stripped of his knighthood.

“A mounted police officer, PC David Scott, would have faced the allegation that he lied when he said that his horse had been burned by Liverpool supporters.”

The South Yorkshire Police Federation has criticised the IOPC report as “not fair or balanced”, saying: “Former police officers – some of whom are very elderly and some who have sadly passed away – do not have any kind of due process or the ability to formally respond to the allegations made in this report.”

This is because the law has protected them for far too long, it seems.

Hillsborough is the most extreme example of police avoiding disciplinary procedures because they have retired or passed away – because of the scale of the injustice and the length of time the families have had to fight.


Please take a moment to complete the Vox Political Reader Survey.
Your answers are anonymous and will help shape future coverage.
Click here to take part.


The underlying mechanism is depressingly familiar – as a reporter, I’ve seen it multiple times in the past: misconduct becomes unenforceable once an officer retires, and criminal thresholds are set so high that gross negligence, cover-ups and institutional deceit routinely escape consequence.

There are three obvious structural solutions, none of which require inventing anything new — only political courage and legislative will.

First: misconduct jurisdiction must survive retirement.

There is absolutely no reason disciplinary proceedings should evaporate the moment an officer hangs up the uniform.

Doctors, lawyers, teachers and social workers can all face disciplinary action long after they leave their professions; they can lose registrations, titles, pensions or the right to practise again.

The police are virtually unique in enjoying a total cut-off point.

Ending that protection would at least allow formal findings of misconduct, even if sanctions are limited.

Second: pension forfeiture must be on the table for proven misconduct related to public harm.

Senior officers who oversaw catastrophic failure — or participated in cover-ups — should not simply retire on full, publicly-funded pensions.

Parliament already allows pension forfeiture in very narrow circumstances (serious criminal convictions connected with duty).

That could be widened to include gross misconduct proved in a disciplinary process or civil standard hearing.

For elderly or deceased officers, this may be symbolic — but symbols matter.

It would shatter the culture of impunity that shielded the Hillsborough cover-up for decades.

Third: statutory duties of candour need teeth.

The Guardian article said that “Bereaved families have campaigned since 2017 for a “Hillsborough law”, which was finally introduced into parliament by Keir Starmer’s government in September, aimed at deterring official cover-ups by introducing a duty of “candour, transparency and frankness” for police officers and public officials.”

It neglects to mention that this duty is only activated during inquiries, inquests or investigations – so in day-to-day life, public servants like the police remain merely urged to do the right thing.

A duty without sanctions is just a polite suggestion.

A proper such duty would be backed by real penalties: obstruction offences, career-ending sanctions, and personal liability for deceit in official processes.

If such a duty had existed in 1989, South Yorkshire police’s entire defensive strategy — amending statements, smearing supporters, withholding facts — would have been a prosecutable offence, not just a moral outrage.

The heartbreaking thing about Hillsborough is that any mechanism that could have delivered justice either did not exist, or existed in such a neutered form that officers could simply wait out the clock until retirement protected them.

The families were right to call this a “bitter injustice”: it is accountability defeated by time itself.

The solution is straightforward: stop letting time be a shield. Misconduct should follow an officer as long as the consequences of their actions follow the victims — which, in Hillsborough’s case, has been a lifetime.

If anything, this latest report shows that the loophole is not merely a historical glitch — it remains an active threat unless the law is changed decisively.

The Hillsborough families now have no chance of seeing justice done on the police who wronged them.

there is now no realistic path to achieving it.

Every legal route is now closed:

Criminal prosecutions failed years ago. Duckenfield was acquitted. No other senior officer was ever charged.
Misconduct proceedings cannot happen because every officer identified by the IOPC has retired, and the law simply does not permit disciplinary action against former officers.
Civil action is practically impossible because key individuals have died and evidence is now decades old.
The new Hillsborough Law is not retrospective. It can prevent future cover-ups but cannot reopen or re-punish past ones.

The IOPC report explicitly confirms this grim reality: the watchdog identified gross misconduct on a huge scale — deliberate dishonesty, abuse of authority, neglect of duty, falsification of statements — but it cannot sanction any of the perpetrators because of the retirement loophole. Families described this as “a bitter injustice” because it is exactly that.

The truth is now officially recognised.

But accountability has been permanently denied.

And that is why the families’ reaction is as raw and furious as it has been: they were forced to fight for the truth, for 36 years – only to be told — at the very end — that those responsible will face no consequences at all.

Why is the Justice Secretary still wrongly releasing convicts?

Share this post:

Almost a month after new security measures and checklists were imposed to stop convicts being released from prison prematurely, Justice Secretary David Lammy has announced 12 more releases-in-error.

It’s not good enough. Let’s have some details from the BBC:

“Justice Secretary David Lammy has said 12 prisoners have been accidentally released in the past three weeks, two of whom are still at large.

“It comes on top of the 91 prisoners who were freed by mistake between April and October in England and Wales.


Please take a moment to complete the Vox Political Reader Survey.
Your answers are anonymous and will help shape future coverage.
Click here to take part.


“Speaking to the BBC, Lammy said there would always be a “human error” while prisons were using a paper-based system and that the situation would improve once a “completely digital system” was adopted.

“Charlie Taylor, chief inspector of prisons, has said… that prisons were having to adapt to different policies including various early release schemes introduced both by the previous Conservative government and the current Labour one.”

Doesn’t it seem that nobody in government has actually taken control of this, despite it having been a running scandal for weeks?

The key problem is not simply that more accidental releases have been discovered – it is that they have continued to happen after ministers loudly claimed to be fixing the issue.

To read the rest, head over to The Whip Line.

A subscription unlocks all my analysis and helps keep independent UK political journalism going.

Share this post:


💬 **Thanks for reading!** If this article helped you see through the spin, please: 🔁 **Like this article?** Share it with friends or comment below — it helps more than you know.

Welcome to Vox Political – watch this first!

Get The Whip Line – July 2025!

Support independent journalism — and receive Vox Political’s latest collection of fearless reporting.

💻 Donate £15 via Ko-fi and get the eBook
📚 Donate £20 via Ko-fi and get the paperback

👉 Claim your copy now:
Support on Ko-fi →

No billionaire backers. Just sharp, uncompromising political journalism — powered by readers like you.

Grab your copy today — support real journalism and keep it free from corporate influence!

FREE NEWSLETTER

Subscribe to our newsletter today and be the first to know when we publish a new blog post.

Archives

Subscribe to the Vox Political video mailing list!

Go to Top