Tag Archives: indicative

The indicative votes have shown that the biggest hindrance to Brexit is the Conservative Party

When life imitates satire: This mock “Brexit 50p” is now eerily indicative of the way Parliament has behaved over Brexit.

Monday’s “indicative” votes on how Parliament wants the UK to exit the European Union went exactly as we all should have expected, with no option winning the support of a majority. Well, good golly, Mrs May.

But the exercise hasn’t been entirely pointless. Analysis of the way the different parties voted on the two options that came closest to a majority provides clear evidence that there is one thing holding back progress on Brexit: The Conservative Party.

The amendment for a customs union attracted 273 votes, with 276 against. That’s right – it lost by just three votes.

And the amendment for “Common Market 2.0” won 261 votes, with 282 against.

On the “customs union” amendment, Conservatives had a free vote (apart from cabinet ministers who were whipped to abstain) – and only 37 supported it while a massive 236 were opposed.

Sure, some Labour MPs voted against it, and they could have given it a majority. So, for that matter, could the DUP – whose 10 MPs all voted against something that would have made the Northern Ireland border “backstop” they hate so much irrelevant.

But 236 Conservatives against it? Really?

Kenneth Clarke, the former Tory chancellor who proposed the motion, was overly kind, in This Writer’s opinion. He said his customs union did not get a majority because some people’s vote supporters would not back it because they only wanted to back a second referendum. And some MPs would not back it because they wanted common market 2.0, even though they would have been happy with the customs union plan too.

He said he sometimes thinks the House of Commons is not very good at doing politics. How charitable.

Nick Boles, the Conservative MP behind the “Common Market 2.0” amendment, was more realistic about the reasons for its failure.

With 228 Tories voting against it, he said his party had refused to compromise – so he resigned the Conservative whip on the spot.

“I have given everything to an attempt to find a compromise that can take this country out of the European Union while maintaining our economic strength and our political cohesion,” he told the Commons.

“I accept I have failed. I have failed chiefly because my party refuses to compromise. I regret therefore to announce I can no longer sit for this party.”

And then he walked out of the chamber.

It seems the UK’s departure from the EU is facing a long delay.

Next step (at the time of writing) is the regular Tuesday morning cabinet meeting which, considering developments since last week’s cantankerous affair, is likely to be acrimonious.

The Commons won’t support Theresa May’s deal, and can’t find a solution of its own. MPs won’t accept “no deal” and they won’t cancel Brexit unilaterally.

No options are acceptable, it seems.

That won’t stop Mrs May putting forward her deal for a democracy-shattering fourth meaningless vote, probably on Wednesday.

In anticipation of this, Jeremy Corbyn has already said that if she can put her deal to the Commons three times, the other options should have the same opportunity.

And so, it seems, the long year will wear on.

There is a solution. Mrs May could admit defeat, accept that Parliamentary arithmetic means none of the options put forward by MPs will win a majority, and call a general election.

That, it seems, is the only answer. But we already know she doesn’t have the strength of character it requires.


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This is how fear of a Tory split could threaten the course of Brexit

Speculation about the effect particular Brexit options could have on the Conservative Party may hinder the course of democracy.

This Site reported yesterday (March 31) that pro-Brexit ministers are threatening to resign if Mrs May agrees a permanent customs union with the EU – but that is precisely the course most likely to be chosen by the “indicative” votes due to take place in the House of Commons today, if last week’s exercise in democracy is any yardstick.

So how would any conscientious Conservative ensure that their party stays together?

By not supporting the “customs union” option – that’s how. Right?

A customs union is part of the Labour Party’s preferred form of Brexit, so that party might whip its members to support the option whenever they can.

But there are good – in terms of party politics – reasons for the Tories not to support a customs union. According to the Mirror, “following that policy would break the Tories’ 2017 manifesto and stop the UK signing its own trade deals around the world.”

Despite turning their backs on manifesto promises almost as soon as they were made in 2017, the Tories have since become rather precious about them and it seems 170 Conservative MPs, supported by 10 cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Penny Mordaunt, have written to Mrs May, demanding that she take the UK out of the EU as soon as possible – and not into a customs union.

If that’s true, they’re saying she should honour the Tory manifesto by ignoring the will of Parliament (if a majority of MPs go for the “customs union” option). That would be contempt of Parliament, of course, and Mrs May’s government is already the only sitting government ever to be found guilty of that offence. A second such ruling might trigger the election that Tories are equally desperate to avoid, as it could be said that Mrs May’s administration was not fit to govern.

But another wing of the Tories seems keen for Mrs May to support a customs union – as suggested by David Gauke, The Guardian has reported.

Mrs May might be thinking she can get out of it with her plan to subject us all to a fourth vote on her meaningless Brexit deal, set against anything chosen by Parliament today.

But (again) it is entirely possible that a large contingent of her Parliamentary party could resign before she gets that far – even though any such vote will happen this week.

It’s a dilemma – and one that threatens to break the Conservatives in a big way if they get it wrong. I’m hoping they do.

But I fear that they will make a choice that helps only themselves – and even then, only in the short term.


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May is threatening a general election. Time to call her bluff

What a difference between the month of May and our soon-to-be-ex prime minister Theresa!

Mrs May currently thinks she can browbeat her fellow MPs into supporting her Brexit deal by threatening to call a general election.

The merry month of May, on the other hand, promises us the opportunity of change with an election of some kind nearly every year.

In 2019 we were led to expect only local government elections – and only in some parts of the UK.

But now, thanks to Mrs May’s inglorious Brexit cock-ups, we’ve got a lot more on our collective plate!

For a start, as Parliament absolutely won’t allow the UK to crash out of the European Union without a deal, and there’s no time to negotiate one before the current deadline of April 12 – so it seems a longer extension of the Brexit deadline will be necessary…

And that means we’ll be taking part in the European Parliament elections at the end of May.

And now, thanks to the democracy-despising Theresa May, it seems we’re getting another chance to exercise our right to vote.

Apparently government sources are briefing that she’ll make one more bid to get her hopeless Brexit deal through Parliament – probably in a run-off against whatever comes from the “indicative” votes on Monday (April 1 – April Fools’ Day – oh dear!) – but if that fails, it’ll be what we’re all waiting for: A general election.

And that will be in May as well, considering the timescales involved!

She said to MPs: “I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this house.”

That suggests that the house needs to change and a new process should be started.

The sooner, the better, I say.

Of course, she could be lying again. She does that a lot.

That’s why it is time our MPs called her bluff.

She’s right to imply that we can’t go on like this.

And even Tory MPs must be aware that another failure to make good on her word will be disastrous for them all – when a new general election does come around again.

It is in their best interests to keep her on the straight-and-narrow…

If they can.


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May allows ‘indicative votes’ on how Brexit should proceed – if she can’t get her deal passed. But will she listen?

It looks like a nod to democracy. But is it?

Before she won the right to continue dictating the UK’s course on Brexit – by just two votes! – Theresa May made a concession to Parliament by agreeing to allow “indicative votes” on how to proceed, giving some control of the parliamentary timetable to MPs and allowing them to vote on a range of Brexit solutions.

Cabinet Office minister David Lidington, who deputises for Mrs May, said MPs could have a say in forging a new plan if hers could not be agreed by Parliament. We now know that her plan will go before Parliament yet again before the European Council summit on March 21; if it is approved, then the government will seek a brief, technical extension beyond the current March 29 departure date to get the necessary legislation in place.

If it is not, then the government will be seeking a longer extension – to June 30 – and it seems likely that indicative votes on the kind of Brexit to be negotiated will be held then.

But we have had assurances from Theresa May before – and they have come to nothing.

She tends to forget her promises as soon as she gets what she wants.

As always, this is an opportunity for the general public to judge Mrs May’s government.

As usual, it would be wise not to expect people to draw the obvious conclusions.


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