Tag Archives: meaningful

This is how fear of a Tory split could threaten the course of Brexit

Speculation about the effect particular Brexit options could have on the Conservative Party may hinder the course of democracy.

This Site reported yesterday (March 31) that pro-Brexit ministers are threatening to resign if Mrs May agrees a permanent customs union with the EU – but that is precisely the course most likely to be chosen by the “indicative” votes due to take place in the House of Commons today, if last week’s exercise in democracy is any yardstick.

So how would any conscientious Conservative ensure that their party stays together?

By not supporting the “customs union” option – that’s how. Right?

A customs union is part of the Labour Party’s preferred form of Brexit, so that party might whip its members to support the option whenever they can.

But there are good – in terms of party politics – reasons for the Tories not to support a customs union. According to the Mirror, “following that policy would break the Tories’ 2017 manifesto and stop the UK signing its own trade deals around the world.”

Despite turning their backs on manifesto promises almost as soon as they were made in 2017, the Tories have since become rather precious about them and it seems 170 Conservative MPs, supported by 10 cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Penny Mordaunt, have written to Mrs May, demanding that she take the UK out of the EU as soon as possible – and not into a customs union.

If that’s true, they’re saying she should honour the Tory manifesto by ignoring the will of Parliament (if a majority of MPs go for the “customs union” option). That would be contempt of Parliament, of course, and Mrs May’s government is already the only sitting government ever to be found guilty of that offence. A second such ruling might trigger the election that Tories are equally desperate to avoid, as it could be said that Mrs May’s administration was not fit to govern.

But another wing of the Tories seems keen for Mrs May to support a customs union – as suggested by David Gauke, The Guardian has reported.

Mrs May might be thinking she can get out of it with her plan to subject us all to a fourth vote on her meaningless Brexit deal, set against anything chosen by Parliament today.

But (again) it is entirely possible that a large contingent of her Parliamentary party could resign before she gets that far – even though any such vote will happen this week.

It’s a dilemma – and one that threatens to break the Conservatives in a big way if they get it wrong. I’m hoping they do.

But I fear that they will make a choice that helps only themselves – and even then, only in the short term.

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May is threatening a general election. Time to call her bluff

What a difference between the month of May and our soon-to-be-ex prime minister Theresa!

Mrs May currently thinks she can browbeat her fellow MPs into supporting her Brexit deal by threatening to call a general election.

The merry month of May, on the other hand, promises us the opportunity of change with an election of some kind nearly every year.

In 2019 we were led to expect only local government elections – and only in some parts of the UK.

But now, thanks to Mrs May’s inglorious Brexit cock-ups, we’ve got a lot more on our collective plate!

For a start, as Parliament absolutely won’t allow the UK to crash out of the European Union without a deal, and there’s no time to negotiate one before the current deadline of April 12 – so it seems a longer extension of the Brexit deadline will be necessary…

And that means we’ll be taking part in the European Parliament elections at the end of May.

And now, thanks to the democracy-despising Theresa May, it seems we’re getting another chance to exercise our right to vote.

Apparently government sources are briefing that she’ll make one more bid to get her hopeless Brexit deal through Parliament – probably in a run-off against whatever comes from the “indicative” votes on Monday (April 1 – April Fools’ Day – oh dear!) – but if that fails, it’ll be what we’re all waiting for: A general election.

And that will be in May as well, considering the timescales involved!

She said to MPs: “I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this house.”

That suggests that the house needs to change and a new process should be started.

The sooner, the better, I say.

Of course, she could be lying again. She does that a lot.

That’s why it is time our MPs called her bluff.

She’s right to imply that we can’t go on like this.

And even Tory MPs must be aware that another failure to make good on her word will be disastrous for them all – when a new general election does come around again.

It is in their best interests to keep her on the straight-and-narrow…

If they can.

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Bercow takes control: Parliament may NOT have third ‘meaningful vote’ on May’s Brexit deal

John Bercow: Laying out the law.

That’s that, then.

Theresa May will undoubtedly be furious as she has been desperate to get her specific Brexit deal passed by Parliament. Too bad that Parliamentary convention means that cannot happen without substantial change.

But shouldn’t she have known that it was impossible – that the rules don’t allow it?

Now she can’t have her deal.

And she only has a short period of time to sort out another.

She’s talked herself – and her government – into a corner. Does anyone seriously think she can talk her way out of it?

The House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow, has said the government cannot bring back the meaningful vote again to parliament unless there has been substantial change to the Brexit deal.

In a shock move likely to infuriate the prime minister, the Speaker said the House of Commons was “being repeatedly asked to pronounce” on the same question.

Quoting from the guide to parliamentary procedure, Erskine May, Bercow said that by convention, the question “may not be brought forward again during the same session” and that it was a “strong and longstanding convention” dating back to 1604.

“Decisions of the house matter. They have weight,” he said. “It is a necessary rule to ensure the sensible use of the house’s time and the proper respect for the decisions which it takes.”

Source: Brexit: John Bercow rules out third meaningful vote on same deal | Politics | The Guardian

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Theresa May lost her Brexit ‘meaningful vote’. Where’s our election, Charles Walker?

On her way: Wouldn’t it be great if Theresa May got in her prime ministerial car, took a trip to Buckingham Palace, and asked for her disastrous Parliament to be dissolved?

Before Theresa May’s Brexit deal went down to its second defeat in a “meaningful vote” – by a margin of 149, no less, Tory MP Charles Walker said there would have to be a general election if she lost.

He said: “I think if the deal doesn’t get through tonight, I think there will have to be a General Election because this Parliament now looks very much like a failing Parliament.

“We were elected to make decisions. We are elected, sometimes, to make imperfect decisions because perfection is often an illusion.

“And if we can’t decide tonight to leave the EU under the terms the Prime Minister has negotiated, then I can’t see really how this government can continue in office. I think she will have to seek a new mandate.”

Those words were echoed by Daniel Kawczynski – another Conservative MP.

Well, she lost.

And the words of Messrs Walker and Kawczynski were echoed by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

“The prime minister has run down the clock and the clock has been run out on her,” he said. “It’s time that we have a general election and the people can choose who their government should be.”

So when can we hope for this election – the third in four years – to take place?

That would be a “meaningful vote” we can all support!

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Attorney-General confirms Vox Political’s view of new ‘backstop’ arrangements

How kind of Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general, to confirm This Site’s appraisal of what the assurances Theresa May has brought back from Strasbourg mean.

I wrote earlier that the “joint statement” and “joint legally-binding instrument” on the Northern Irish border backstop simply delay the need for the UK to find “alternative arrangements” to the controversial stopgap protocol until December 2020, by which time Theresa May could have ceased to be prime minister. I suggested that she was trying to pass the poisoned chalice to someone else.

Today, Mr Cox has said “the legal risk remains unchanged that … the United Kingdom would have … no internationally lawful means of exiting the protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement”.

So nothing has changed, to quote Mrs May’s own infamous remarks of a few years ago.

Apparently the DUP, the Northern Irish party propping up Mrs May’s minority government, has already said it cannot back her in today’s meaningful vote, on the basis of this information.

And it is well worth remembering that the votes in Parliament today (March 12) are about much more than the backstop, as the economist Jonathan Portes points out:

He wrote: “There is no option that will resolve the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over the UK economy any time soon, and none which can credibly claim to avert the risk of substantial long-term damage. The chancellor famously claimed that ‘no one voted to be poorer’. Maybe, maybe not. But… most of our elected representatives will almost certainly – one way or the other – do just that.”

The alternative is a political crisis which may result in something even worse – or something better. All things considered, I’ll take the crisis.

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Is Theresa May’s latest fudge a bid to pass the poisoned chalice of Brexit on to somebody else?

Misery face: Theresa May wants to wash her hands of Brexit by passing the problems created by her deal onto somebody else. But MPs have an opportunity to make her try again. And again. And again…

Let’s cut through the hot air and fantasy and admit something: the “legally binding” changes to the EU deal that Theresa May just agreed at Strasbourg do not change anything.

She desperately needs to break the impasse that means she cannot get a majority in Parliament for her duff Brexit deal – otherwise the UK crashes out without any deal at all, which may be disastrous for foreign trade.

In practise, this meant finding a way around the Northern Irish border “backstop” deal, set up to ensure that goods crossing the border between that part of the UK and the Republic of Ireland continue to do so in as frictionless a way as possible.

The Democratic Unionist Party, which is propping up Mrs May’s government, has said it will not support any deal that puts Northern Ireland in a different position from the rest of the UK.

So, to try to win back that party’s support, she has secured a “joint statement” in which both the UK and EU commit to replacing the backstop with alternative arrangements by December 2020.

This is supported by a “joint legally-binding instrument” that the UK could use to prevent the EU from keeping this country tied into the backstop indefinitely.

It isn’t what Parliament told her to get.

She was told to ensure that the backstop would be replaced with “alternative arrangements” immediately, and has failed to achieve this.

Instead, the backstop will remain a part of the deal, but operating until December 2020, rather than for an unspecified period of time.

After that, it seems the UK’s government will be expected to magic up some “alternative arrangements” that haven’t been considered by now.

Mrs May is trying to kick the Brexit can down the road – possibly far enough that she won’t have to pick it up again. It seems she wants to pass the poisoned chalice to someone else.

But she won’t get the chance if Parliament sees through her ploy.

She has deliberately failed.

She deserves absolutely no support when MPs vote on her meagre offer. They should vote to extend the Article 50 “notice of intention to leave” period and order her to stop fudging and get a proper deal.

Of course, the wits of Twitter think she already achieved this:

… Although some disagree [with apologies for the profanity]:

Source: Brexit: ‘Legally binding’ changes to EU deal agreed – BBC News

THIS is the funniest result of Theresa May’s disastrous Brexit vote

The passenger: Theresa May is unlikely ever to be caught speeding. If her Brexit progress is any yardstick, she’d be more likely to be caught driving everywhere in reverse.

A motorist told Devon and Cornwall police officers the “meaningful vote” on Brexit that led to a resounding defeat for Theresa May was the reason they caught him driving at 86mph.

According to The Independent, when officers asked him why he had been travelling so fast, he replied: “I was listening to the results of the Brexit vote.”

You’ve got to love the police comments: “Another new excuse for us!”

And: “None of the excuses tonight have actually related to their speed.”

Trouble is, all of the excuses police had from motorists are likely to be more convincing than Mrs May’s excuses for her failure.

Postscript: I take it back. This is the funniest result of the Brexit vote:

Apparently it’s Dutch for “battle”.

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Theresa May is drawing Parliament into a war of attrition

Remember when Theresa May threatened to inflict repeated votes on her dire Brexit deal on Parliament until she gets her way?

Now Labour is saying if it loses its vote of “no confidence” today (January 16), it will demand similar votes after ever government loss on that deal.

We’re into a war of attrition, it seems.

We have a government that has been found guilty of contempt of Parliament.

We have a government that has suffered the worst defeat in history in a Parliamentary vote.

This government has averaged one resignation per month.

It fails the people of the United Kingdom on a daily basis.

And the reason it won’t give up and hold a general election is that Conservative MPs are terrified a Labour government will reverse the harm they have done and will actually help the people of the UK.

The thought of doing a bit of good actually horrifies them.

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Theresa May went to the EU27 and made matters worse. Why can’t Parliament vote NOW?

Glad to see the back of her: EU security guards watch Theresa May get in her car and clear off back to the UK.

Theresa May’s latest talks with the EU have been a disaster. Instead of changing their agreement to make it easier for her to win support from Parliament, the EU27 countries have removed elements that would have helped.

A phrase that the EU “stands ready to examine whether any further assurance can be provided” on the Irish border backstop has been snipped.

And wording that the backstop would not be “a desirable outcome” was also cut from the text.

So the EU is now not happy to offer any further help on the border backstop – because it now sees it as desirable? That is the obvious inference.

And there will be no more negotiation, according to the EU27:

Apart from that, it was all about language. Paul Mason reckons Mrs May got “handbagged”:

Then there’s the apparent row between Mrs May and Jean-Claude Juncker over his description of her argument as “nebulous”…

She seems to be demanding to know why he described her in that way. Well, let’s consider what she actually said:

We can only conclude that there is no more room in which Mrs May can wriggle (what a horrible thought). But she refuses to re-schedule the “meaningful vote” on her deal, in Parliament, for next week.

Instead, it will happen some time in January. And nobody is happy about it.

In a press release, Mr Corbyn added: “People and businesses need certainty. The Prime Minister should put her deal before Parliament next week in our country’s interest.

“She has admitted her deal is likely to be defeated by a significant margin. There is no time to waste, and parliament must take back control.”

In the midst of all this, it’s perfectly reasonable for some people to ask what Labour can negotiate that the Conservatives can.

The logical argument is that a Tory Brexit is organised on Conservative priorities, whereas a Labour Brexit would be different:

The longer Mrs May delays, the less likely it is that we can get a useful deal with Europe. She is deliberately endangering the prosperity of the entire country for the sake of her own pride.

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Will Brexit ‘meaningful vote be postponed – or even called off?

It seems insane but apparently Theresa May has been asked to consider delaying, or even cancelling, the “meaningful vote” on her Brexit agreement with the European Union, which has been due to take place next Tuesday (December 11).

It is a requirement of an Act of Parliament (s.13 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018) that the government of the United Kingdom bring forth an amendable Parliamentary motion at the end of that government’s negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, which Parliament may reject if it so chooses.

Failure to bring a motion will be another contempt of Parliament. Mrs May has already headed the first UK government in history to be held in contempt by Parliament; does anybody think she’s strong enough to hold on if she is found to commit contempt a second time in two weeks?

That she would. But if she goes ahead, she risks far worse for her political party, as Lord Heseltine spelled out in a debate in the House of Lords:

He was saying that Brexit will mean the UK economy will have less money to spend, meaning there will be less available to help keep the poorest people from absolute destitution, and he was saying that he did not want to support any decision that would make that happen.

If you don’t understand why he would say such a thing, consider the following – accurate – video clip from Momentum:

That’s the Brexit proposed for the UK by Mrs May; a mess concocted after two years in which she has done nothing but squabble with her own MPs about whose selfishness should be allowed to dictate what happens.

Yesterday (December 6) it was suggested that pulling the vote was now on the Tory government’s agenda as this would win support from the Democratic Unionist Party and the European Research Group of hard Brexiters in the Conservative Party. It would mean the so-called “Grieve amendment”, which would make it possible for Parliament to dictate the future of Brexit, could not be triggered. And it would buy time for more negotiations with the EU.

Media sources seemed unsure what was going on:

So the government seems caught between a rock and a hard place. What can be done?

This left-wing commentator has suggested an answer:

And this one explains why such a move may be a good idea:

There doesn’t actually need to be a vote to split Theresa May’s support base. If it doesn’t take place, it will be because she can’t win it with the agreement she has – she she’ll have to change it…

… And then she’ll still have to bring it before Parliament or be found in contempt again.

All told – vote or no vote – it seems the only certainty is laid out in The Prole Star‘s tweet, below:

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