Tag Archives: opinium

Should Labour be worried about opinion poll slump? Apparently not.

Not bothered: This was taken on an earlier occasion but may well illustration Jeremy Corbyn and Jennie Formby’s response to the Opinium poll.

A new opinion poll has suggested the fortunes of the Labour and Conservative parties have been reversed, with Labour falling six points and the Tories up four, giving Mrs May’s party a seven-point lead.

The Opinium poll for The Observer gives the Conservatives 41 per cent and Labour 34 per cent. It suggests that Labour has lose support from both sides of the Brexit debate.

Approval for Theresa May’s handling of Brexit has risen to -30 per cent, while approval for Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of it has fallen to -40 per cent, according to the poll.

It also shows increased support for Mrs May’s deal – although most people still think it is bad.

But is it cause for Labour MPs to be concerned?

Consider:

There’s a lot here to support “Bob”‘s claim. What, suddenly support for Labour slumps and Mrs May enjoys a surge? After the month she’s just had?

It’s not realistic.

Shaun Lawson has written a Twitter thread that appeals for common sense, as you can see:

Is this why Theresa May is trying to bribe Labour MPs with financial incentives for their constituencies if they support her deal? If they refuse, she can say not only that they have betrayed their voters by turning down the investment, but also that they have betrayed Brexit – “the will of the people”.

It’s interesting that some hard-right (centrists? Don’t make me laugh) Labour MPs are planning to quit the party. I’ve seen a rumour that Jeremy Corbyn has been given an ultimatum – to show he has achieved real change over claims of anti-Semitism in the party within a week – in order to provide these MPs with an excuse to leave that would be extremely damaging to the party they’re planning to quit.

So there are many possible reasons for Labour to be slumping in the polls, including misdirection from the Tories (and their puppet media) over Brexit and also false claims about Jeremy Corbyn from MPs who no longer represent the interests of party members.

But let’s get back to the substantive issue: Does this poll mean anything?

I’d say the answer to that is no – for a very simple reason provided in this response to the first post in Shaun’s thread:

https://twitter.com/DelicateDave/status/1091860961462534144

Polls can influence politicians as well as the public.

But it seems Mrs May is not sufficiently influenced to call an election – despite having been urged to do so since before Christmas.

Perhaps she knows something we don’t.

Perhaps that’s why we shouldn’t be overly concerned about an outlier among recent opinion polls.

Labour opens lead on Conservatives for the wrong reasons, says pollster

If this had been a Survation poll, the lead might have been in double-figures.

Survation is the only trustworthy pollster around at the moment, having been closest to accurately predicting recent election results.

The poll released on the weekend, showing Labour leading the Tories by four points, is by Opinium.

It suggests that Labour has merely retained its current level of popularity, while the Tories have fallen due to their staggering ineptitude over Brexit.

Apparently the hard-right voter has returned to UKIP. Fat lot of good that will do.

Also directly attributable to her Brexit failures is Theresa May’s nosediving popularity – according to Opinium, Jeremy Corbyn is now the UK’s most popular political leader.

But she has to carry the can for it – the poll shows that the preferred choice of alternative leader – from a list including Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, David Davis, Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom – is “none of the above”.

Labour has not benefited from the Tory loss of popularity because that party’s own policy on Brexit remains unclear – and this is absolutely fine as far as the party’s leadership is concerned.

Labour’s position is that Brexit is a disaster entirely created by the Conservative Party – and is determined to ensure that the Tories take the fall for it.

The Observer article’s claim that –

While Labour’s poll lead will encourage some in the party to push for an early general election, others in the party will be worried that its support has not increased at a time when the Tories are in open revolt and lack any unity over Brexit

– is unlikely to be based on anything other than the writer’s own imagination. Labour isn’t worried about an early general election – if it happens, great! If not, the party can wait – and there are no concerns about party support while Brexit remains a disaster-in-process, rather than a historical one.

Source: Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election | Politics | The Guardian

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Labour still ahead in latest political poll

[Image: BBC.]

The latest Opinium poll for The Observer states that Labour, on 43 per cent, has a lead of three points over the Conservatives, who are on 40 per cent.

What do you think? Are these figures skewed by the summer recess?

Theresa May still has a negative approval rating, with 48 per cent disapproving of the way she is handling her job and 31 per cent approving. However this has improved from a net rating of -21 per cent in July to -17 per cent this month. By comparison, Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have dropped from +4 per cent last month to -5 per cent this month.

Generally the public think the economy will take a hit in the short term but will balance out in the long term due to Brexit. In the next two years, two-fifths (39 per cent) think they will be financially worse off due to Brexit and only 13 per cent think they’ll be better off. But in 10 years’ time more or less equal numbers think they’ll be better or worse off (31 per cent vs 30 per cent) respectively).

Trust in the Conservatives to lead the Brexit negotiations has dropped from 39 per cent in June to 33 per cent in August, although they remain ahead of Labour with 21 per cent who trust them most to lead the negotiations.

The public broadly disapprove of how Theresa May is handling Brexit: 47 per cent disapprove and only 28 per cent approve.

Source: Political Polling 15th August 2017


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Last poll results: Public are too easily influenced by rich media moguls

The poll revealed that 44 per cent of the public had faith in Hammond and May to run the economy [Image: Pool/Reuters].

The poll revealed that 44 per cent of the public had faith in Hammond and May to run the economy [Image: Pool/Reuters].

I saw a tweet today (Saturday) that said if the public take their opinions from the mainstream media, then they will vote according to the wishes of the owners of those media, and not in their own interests.

That is what this opinion poll shows.

The British public would be mad to trust Theresa May, Philip Hammond and the Conservative Party with the nation’s finances – all the Tories ever do is ruin us and enrich themselves.

Over the last 70 years, the Conservatives, in government, have borrowed more money – and repaid less – than Labour ever have.

In fact, George Osborne, in his six years as Chancellor, personally created more debt for the UK than every Labour chancellor there has ever been.

Mr Osborne missed every single fiscal target he ever set himself and Philip Hammond is set to do the same.

Oh, and the Conservative Party managed to lose the UK’s treasured AAA+ credit rating.

Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell would do what Labour has always done – regenerate the economy and put a proportion of the GDP that generates back into the Treasury.

Theresa May and Philip Hammond will do what the Tories have always done – run down the economy, privatise what they can and let the new owners of our national assets park their profits in offshore tax havens – while they work on turning the UK into a tax haven in its own right.

Of those two choices, it is clear that Messrs Corbyn and McDonnell, and Labour, are the only rational option for the good of the United Kingdom.

So the assertion in the headline must be correct, mustn’t it? People have to get their opinions from somewhere and if big business is the only beneficiary from Tory policies, then big business must be putting nonsense in everybody’s heads – right?

What are the alternatives?

More than twice as many people trust Theresa May and Philip Hammond to run the economy than Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, according to a new poll on the eve of the autumn statement.

Just 18% of voters would trust the Labour leadership to manage the public finances, the findings of the Opinium/Observer poll show, compared with 44% who have faith in the prime minister and chancellor.

The Conservatives’ lead comes despite claims that May’s government has no clear plan for Brexit and as business leaders and politicians across the political spectrum put pressure on the government to define its strategy.

May’s positive approval rating is down just one point since last month, with 43% backing her performance as prime minister and 25% disapproving. By contrast, 17% of voters believe Corbyn would make the best prime minister, compared with 45% for May.

Labour’s overall poll rating is down three points from last month at 29%, while the Conservatives are up one point at 41%. Ukip are on 12%, the Liberal Democrats on 7%, the Scottish National party on 6% and the Greens on 4%.

Source: Tories trusted on economy by twice as many voters as Labour – poll | Politics | The Guardian

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The youth vote is important – meaning the Coalition is in trouble

The results: The Observer published the results of the Opinium poll in graphic form, making it easier for all of us to digest. The rise of actress Emma Watson as an opinion-former after her speech on feminism to the United Nations shows the influence of high-profile celebrities who take an interest.

The results: The Observer published the results of the Opinium poll in graphic form, making it easier for all of us to digest. The rise of actress Emma Watson as an opinion-former after her speech on feminism to the United Nations shows the influence of high-profile celebrities who take an interest.

A BBC report today (December 27) suggests that the votes of people aged 18-25 are key to success in the general election next May.

This will be terrific news for the Labour Party, as an Opinium/Observer poll on the views of people aged 17 to 22 has given Labour a 15 per cent lead over its nearest rival – on 41 per cent, compared with the Conservatives on 26 per cent, the Greens on 19 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on just six per cent.

But these polls never compare like for like, and the poll quoted by the BBC, carried out by Populus for the thinktank Demos (who the BBC describes as left-leaning, although some may dispute that), suggests that 44 per cent of young people have not decided which way they’ll vote. The difference is that these are people aged 18 to 25.

Both polls show around three million young people will be eligible to vote in May, but present a spread of information about their preferences that suggests no British political party has entirely claimed their loyalties.

For example, the Opinium poll shows 62 per cent of young people said they believed the UK’s membership of the EU was a good thing, including 57 per cent of Conservative-inclined voters, with only 14 per cent disagreeing.

Asked how they would vote in an in/out referendum, as proposed by David Cameron, 67 per cent said they would vote to stay in, while only 19 per cent would opt to leave. Among all voters, the split is close to 50-50 (according to The Observer).

This suggests that a more strident anti-EU message from the Conservatives, to counter the threat of Ukip, would drive away more young first-time voters, the paper stated.

No party leader fared well in the Opinium poll. Only 13 per cent said they approved of Nigel Farage, against 64 per cent who said they disapproved, giving him a net approval rating of -51 per cent, worse than that of Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg, who scored -44 per cent. Ed Miliband scored -18 per cent and David Cameron -6 per cent.

The Populus poll, quoted by the BBC, asked young people to name the issues that most concerned them, and found that 69 per cent said the cost of living, 62 per cent affordable housing, 58 per cent unemployment and the same proportion said the NHS. These are all issues on which the Coalition government can be said to have made the situation worse.

Exactly 50 per cent were worried about online privacy, with 45 per cent concerned about the environment, and 43 per cent worried about immigration. Tax avoidance only bothered 37 per cent and Britain’s future in the EU concerned just 34 per cent (indicating that Opinium’s finding is more or less correct).

At first glance, it seems the BBC’s report was commissioned in response to The Observer’s, reinforcing suggestions of right-wing bias in the Corporation. The indication of the number of potential voters who are still undecided tends to support this.

But the findings about young voters’ concerns suggests that any such intention has been foiled, as both polls clearly show young voters are dissatisfied with the Coalition parties and want a change.

Perhaps the most striking information for Labour – and an indication of where it has gone wrong over the past two decades – is the suggestion in the Populus poll that more than half of young people would be more likely to vote if there were more working-class candidates.

The party’s continued insistence on marginalising such members in favour of people from the same background as every other party – university graduates who have gone on to work in politics or finance – is harming its appeal to voters, it seems.

Now, why would a party leader with such low ratings as Ed Miliband be ignoring this?

Follow me on Twitter: @MidWalesMike

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