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Labour is now running a minority government in Wales after its voter share collapsed in yesterday’s (Thursday, October 23, 2025) Caerphilly by-election, handing Plaid Cymru a historic victory.
As usual, the mainstream media are reporting the results in terms of percentage share of votes cast, rather than percentage of the whole Caerphilly electorate, so I’ll try to break down the figures in more accurate terms.
First thing to note is that turnout was actually higher than in the 2021 full Senedd election – an extremely unusual situation. Most of the time, by-elections attract fewer votes.
I don’t have a total figure for the electorate in 2021, but at yesterday’s election, there were 66,895 people eligible to vote in the constituency, so let’s compare all the results with that as a benchmark figure for both polls.
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Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle won yesterday with 15,961 votes – 23.86 per cent of the electorate. That a rise of 11.59 per cent on Delyth Jewell’s performance in 2021.
That percentage rise pales in comparison to second-place candidate Llyr Powell of Reform UK. He received 12,113 votes – 18.1 per cent of the electorate and an increase of a massive 17.36 per cent on 2021 candidate Tim Price.
What about Labour, whose candidate, the late Hefin David, won the seat in 2021 with 13,289 votes (19.9 per cent of the electorate)? Mr David’s death triggered the by-election, and Labour’s choice to replace him, Richard Tunnicliffe, could only scrape together 3,713 votes (5.6 per cent). That’s a plummet of 14.3 per cent.
The Conservatives also fared badly – much worse, in fact, in terms of the number of votes cast. After Stephen Mayfield won 5,013 votes in 2021 (7.5 per cent of the electorate), this year’s candidate, Gareth Potter, was able to put together only 690 votes (a measly one per cent). That’s a drop of 6.5 per cent of the electorate. The Tories also lost their £500 deposit, having failed to win five per cent of all votes cast (they won just two per cent under that measure).
Also losing their deposits were the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats, Gwlad and UKIP.
The next full Senedd elections will take place in May next year (2026) – and it is expected to be a disaster for Labour.
The party in Wales has plummeted in the opinion polls since Vaughan Gething stepped down as First Minister last year, after a donations scandal.
Current FM, Eluned Morgan, has tried to rebuild the party’s reputation but has struggled to do so in the face of its existence as a part of the increasingly unpopular UK Labour Party headed by current Westminster prime minister Keir Starmer.
Polling ahead of the elections puts Labour on just 14 per cent – ahead of the Conservatives (11 per cent) and more than the party won yesterday – but far behind Reform UK (29 per cent) and Plaid (30 per cent).
With the number of seats being contested rising from 60 to 96, it seems unlikely that any party will be able to gain a majority under the proportional representation system.
But if Wales ends up with a coalition government, who will form it?
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Catastrophic loss for Labour as Plaid Cymru seizes Caerphilly Senedd seat
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As usual, the mainstream media are reporting the results in terms of percentage share of votes cast, rather than percentage of the whole Caerphilly electorate, so I’ll try to break down the figures in more accurate terms.
First thing to note is that turnout was actually higher than in the 2021 full Senedd election – an extremely unusual situation. Most of the time, by-elections attract fewer votes.
I don’t have a total figure for the electorate in 2021, but at yesterday’s election, there were 66,895 people eligible to vote in the constituency, so let’s compare all the results with that as a benchmark figure for both polls.
Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle won yesterday with 15,961 votes – 23.86 per cent of the electorate. That a rise of 11.59 per cent on Delyth Jewell’s performance in 2021.
That percentage rise pales in comparison to second-place candidate Llyr Powell of Reform UK. He received 12,113 votes – 18.1 per cent of the electorate and an increase of a massive 17.36 per cent on 2021 candidate Tim Price.
What about Labour, whose candidate, the late Hefin David, won the seat in 2021 with 13,289 votes (19.9 per cent of the electorate)? Mr David’s death triggered the by-election, and Labour’s choice to replace him, Richard Tunnicliffe, could only scrape together 3,713 votes (5.6 per cent). That’s a plummet of 14.3 per cent.
The Conservatives also fared badly – much worse, in fact, in terms of the number of votes cast. After Stephen Mayfield won 5,013 votes in 2021 (7.5 per cent of the electorate), this year’s candidate, Gareth Potter, was able to put together only 690 votes (a measly one per cent). That’s a drop of 6.5 per cent of the electorate. The Tories also lost their £500 deposit, having failed to win five per cent of all votes cast (they won just two per cent under that measure).
Also losing their deposits were the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats, Gwlad and UKIP.
The next full Senedd elections will take place in May next year (2026) – and it is expected to be a disaster for Labour.
The party in Wales has plummeted in the opinion polls since Vaughan Gething stepped down as First Minister last year, after a donations scandal.
Current FM, Eluned Morgan, has tried to rebuild the party’s reputation but has struggled to do so in the face of its existence as a part of the increasingly unpopular UK Labour Party headed by current Westminster prime minister Keir Starmer.
Polling ahead of the elections puts Labour on just 14 per cent – ahead of the Conservatives (11 per cent) and more than the party won yesterday – but far behind Reform UK (29 per cent) and Plaid (30 per cent).
With the number of seats being contested rising from 60 to 96, it seems unlikely that any party will be able to gain a majority under the proportional representation system.
But if Wales ends up with a coalition government, who will form it?
Support Vox Political!
With social media algorithms acting as gatekeepers – allowing users to read only what their owners want them to, sites like Vox Political need the support of our readers like never before.
You can help by making a donation:
https://Ko-fi.com/voxpolitical
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