Do not believe for one moment that Conservative MPs are concerned about families being punished by their government’s policies.
If Osborne relents, it will be because the tax credit cut could threaten his party’s chances of re-election in 2020. Tories love power and see keeping it as a kind of game.
That course of action would lead inevitably to the question of how Osborne would find the money that the government would not have spent if the cut went ahead. Would he do something even more draconian?
Finally, there’s the “Taxpayers’ Alliance solution” to consider. Will Osborne go through with the cut in the belief that people will have forgotten it by 2020 – or at least, that they will have forgotten the Tories were responsible for it?
George Osborne has come under fresh pressure to halt controversial cuts to tax credits as new research shows that 71 Tory MPs in marginal seats could be vulnerable to a backlash from families hit by dramatic falls in their incomes.
The impact of the cuts, which will leave 3.2 million families worse off by an average of £1,300 a year from next April, is already causing concern among Conservative MPs and ministers, who believe they will punish precisely the kind of working families David Cameron claims to represent.
The electoral danger to the Conservatives is also laid bare in research released by Labour ahead of a Commons debate on the issue on Tuesday. It shows that 71 Tory MPs, including 23 new members of parliament in marginal seats, have more families who are set to lose substantial sums than was the size of their majority last May.
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