Speculation over snap election as Tories take 16-point lead in polls
![Theresa May: The new prime minister is enjoying a bounce in the polls - but for how long? [Image: AFP/Getty Images.]](https://voxpoliticalonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/160727-May-AFP-Getty-Images.jpg)
Theresa May: The new prime minister is enjoying a bounce in the polls – but for how long? [Image: AFP/Getty Images.]
Labour was level with the Conservative Party in the polls on June 26, when shadow cabinet members started their series of co-ordinated, on-the-hour, “spontaneous” resignations.
Now, after a series of contrived stunts designed to undermine party leader Jeremy Corbyn – whose support base among the Labour membership has only become stronger – Labour has dropped 16 points behind.
This is Hilary Benn’s responsibility. And Angela Eagle’s. Also Owen Smith’s.
It may be Conor McGinn’s. It is certainly Margaret Hodge’s and Anne Coffey’s.
It is Thangam Debbonaire’s responsibility, and Lilian Greenwood’s; also Seema Malhotra’s.
It is Tristram Hunt’s responsibility. And Heidi Alexander’s.
Those are just the names that occurred to This Writer as I was typing up this piece. You may wish to add more.
One person who certainly isn’t responsible for the poll dip is Jeremy Corbyn. He just wants to get on with defeating the Conservatives.
That used to be the desire of every Labour MP, not so long ago.
Theresa May’s Conservatives have extended their lead over Labour to 16-points in a new opinion poll, prompting fresh speculation the new Prime Minister may call an early general election.
On current parliamentary boundaries, the latest of four surveys reflecting the premier’s honeymoon period would increase the party’s slender majority of 12 to a massive 102.
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even if a tory voting chimp was in Downing Street now as PM tory voters would be thrilled given what went before so is ‘on a roll’ for now. The Labour plotters are more damaging to the party than Conservative government
“On current parliamentary boundaries, the latest of four surveys reflecting the premier’s honeymoon period would increase the party’s slender majority of 12 to a massive 102.” So 90 Blairites are so desperate to get rid of Mr Corbyn, they’ll lose their jobs? I wonder if either they’ve not thought through what they’re doing or whether they fear something worse than unemployment? Do they all have cushy gigs after Westminster or do they believe if Mr Corbyn has power their corruption will result in prison time?
They would be fools not to call an election – Labour rebels have handed them the win, and damaged Labour’s image amongst the eyes of the voters!
You can hear May now: “They can’t even agree on who should lead them, how will they ever run the country with so much in fighting and continual resignations”!
And this under the strongest most publicly popular leader Labour have had for decades!
Owen and Eagle and all will of course lay the blame at Corbyns feet, for just their like deity Blair, they know they can do no wrong and nothing will be their fault!
David, shall we inject some facts into this? Corbyn is the most unpopular of leaders. His currently popularity stands at minus 41. His only fans are on the left of British politics. They wider public does not endorse him at all. If you have any polling evidence to the contrary, feel free to share it with us.
And how to you think Owen Smith will improve matters? He is far less popular than Mr Corbyn!
I agree they have deeply harmed the Labour Party.
I notice Hilary Benn is first in the list. I thought he might be.
It’s my list; he triggered the resignations.
Everybody’s fault but Jeremy Corbyn’s, eh, Mike?
In this case? Certainly.
I’m sure I read that you didn’t believe in polls, or something like that, somewhere on your blog. (Nice blog by the way.) As for the Labour tie with the Conservatives, well, that was anomalous. For the longest time, certainly while Mr Corbyn has been Labour leader, Labour has been behind the Conservatives in every poll, consistently. But then: Who believes in polls anyway? You need to get real Mr Sivier.
I am real.
You’re right, I don’t believe the polls – certainly not at the moment. They were wrong in the run-up to the general election and they were wrong in the run-up to the local elections as well.
The distance between Labour and the Conservatives in the opinion polls contrasts strongly with the two parties’ performances in the elections – right-wing Labour loses; Corbyn’s Labour wins.
But that doesn’t mean polls can’t influence politicians.
It’s just the voters who do what they want.
You have to give the Blairits there due it looks like they will get what they want another tory goverment and a Labour Party in tatters, Lets get Jeremy as leader and sort this mess out ASAP all this is taking members of the real problem and thats to fight the tories
Can’t see it happening off the back of one poll…..but given the Labour leadership election is rumbling on for at least another month, with all kinds of legal actions taking place I fear there will be more damaging polls out soon
I think if Labour’s PLP suceed in ditching Corbyn against the wishes of so many members they will have killed the Labour parties chances of election for a couple of generations if ever. Their unedifying tactics have revealed what they think counts and it’s certainly not the common people’s concerns. Let alone disabled people’s.
You live in a fantasy world, Mike. As you know, the real reason for the Tory bounce is the election of Theresa May. She seems hugely competent in comparison with your mate Jez and is trusted much more on key issues such as immigration, welfare, defence and the economy. Claiming the coup plotters are responsible for the disastrous polling is a little like blaming a coach crash on the guy who tried to grab the wheel away from a crazed hijacker. If only he’d left things as they were, it would have been fine! It doesn’t wash, I’m afraid, my old son.
Sure, there’s a bounce because Mrs May is in her ‘honeymoon’ period, but the gap has widened because of the actions of the Labour mutineers. Don’t try to get them off the hook because it won’t work. That would be fantasising.
Labour won’t regain the initiative by denying the facts.
If Mrs May is trusted on immigration, welfare, defence and the economy, why is that? Is it really because her policies are so much better, or is it simply that she gets so much more – and better – press than Jeremy Corbyn? The latter, I think – and that’s not fantasising either. You can read academic studies showing the pro-Tory bias.
Your metaphor about the coup plotters being “the guy who tried to grab the wheel away from a crazed hijacker” is perverse. The coup plotters are the hijackers.
Don’t patronise us.