Bookies say Jeremy Corbyn more likely to win Labour leadership after first hustings with Owen Smith
Animated: Jeremy Corbyn speaks during the Labour leadership debate in Cardiff, August 4, 2016.
It seems bookmakers are more reliable yardsticks of public feeling than the opinion poll companies these days, considering pollsters’ recent woeful failures to predict election results.
So Jeremy Corbyn’s re-election campaign can take heart from William Hill’s decision to shorten the odds for a Corbyn victory. It means punters think he is more likely to win, following the first hustings yesterday (August 4).
Smith supporters were quick to take to the social media and claim victory, but such comments were met with derision. For an example, see here.
But there’s still a long way to go. Voting slips won’t be posted until August 22 and the result will not be revealed until more than a month after that (September 24).
Bookmaker William Hill [has] shortened its odds for a Corbyn victory from 1/8 (88% chance of victory) to 1/10 (90%), with Smith a 6/1 (14%) underdog.
“Corbyn has emerged from the opening round with a points lead over his opponent, according to political punters, and seems to be heading for another knockout victory,” said Graham Sharpe, a spokesman for William Hill.
Source: Labour leadership: Jeremy Corbyn’s odds cut after first hustings with Owen Smith
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But Mike, the bookies notoriously got the Brexit result totally wrong. I don’t bet but, having been assured that the bookies were far more reliable than the polls, reached the referendum day full of false confidence.
Really? It seems they’re still more reliable than the pollsters, though!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/21/who-can-you-trust-on-the-eu-referendum-the-pollsters-or-the-bookies
See http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-how-the-bookies-got-eu-referendum-odds-so-wrong-40-million-bet-a7100856.html
Polls seem to be popping up on twitter left, right and centre, and frankly, that fake YouGov poll last night, makes me even MORE suspicious about ANY polls I come across now!
Peterborough Labour Party had a vote today with Owen Smith getting 16% of the vote and Jeremy Corbyn 84%. I think this adequately demonstrates what we think of Smith’s challenge.
This vote was not a poll nor was it a prediction, just a result!
What do the Bookies say about Corbyn becoming Prime Minister?
11/2.
Put a tenner on Corbyn becoming PM and you get, six and a half times your bet, i.e., £65 back if he wins!
Which indicates that the Bookies calculate that this outcome is very unlikely to occur.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister
Now may be a very good time to make that bet! The odds are likely to shorten in the future!