Brexit myth-busting: a clean break? It can’t be done!
Ironic: This UK Government advert says, “Get ready for Brexit” – but it seems the organisation least ready for it is the UK Government.
As EU leaders ask Boris Johnson for another attempt at a Brexit deal, let’s debunk another myth – that “no deal” Brexit would be a ‘clean break’.
Here’s Simon Wren-Lewis on Mainly Macro again:
A clean break Brexit inevitably leads to 10 years at least of negotiation with the EU, negotiations in which the UK side will eventually be forced to accept the terms the ERG now despise.
The longer our government holds out in those negotiations the longer it takes.
In reality the so called clean break Brexit is a promise to continue Brexit negotiations but from an even weaker position.
So leaving with “no deal” will in fact weaken the UK’s negotiating position with the European Union and force us to accept future trading conditions that will harm the country.
Source: mainly macro: How the Brexiters have controlled the narrative around Brexit
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I’m sorry but to me, this is proof that, either joining was a bad idea, or that it was a poorly executed one. We should be able to leave, if we so choose, be it now, in 30 days, or 30 years. It’s beginning to look like we’ve been stitched up and this should worry people, whichever way you voted.
Unfortunately that is not realistic in the modern world. We could leave, and be subjected to the worst possible trading conditions with the EU, and with other countries. You seem to be advocating that. Why?
The alternative is to negotiate a new position. That is what most people who have any knowledge of the matter want.
You read too much into what I say. All that I said was that we should be able to leave, if we so choose. The fact that this is becoming evidently impossible suggests that, either is was a bad idea to join in the first place, or that our joining was poorly executed by those who did the negotiating.
It isn’t impossible to leave; it’s just impossible to leave under the crazy conditions imposed first by Theresa May and now by Boris Johnson.
You call them crazy but even under those circumstances, we should be able to leave. We should be able to leave under any circumstances. Either we leave, or we don’t. If we can’t leave, completely, if that is what we so choose, my point still stands. Why should our leaving be conditional? Joining should be conditional. It shouldn’t be for your employer to determine what you can do when you leave your job. If we wish to continue to cooperate, as we do with so many other nations etc. we should be able to do so but not be governed by a political entity that we have left. If we choose to be governed, that is a different matter but the point is that it should be our choice. If that is impossible, we’ve been sold.
I think joining WAS conditional, of course. And when most people leave their job, they don’t expect to do business with their former employer afterwards so your analogy is misplaced.
That, of course, depends on the nature of your business. The point that I was trying to make, now that I have 2 hands, is that, if we want to leave, we should be able to. Your words “it can’t be done” ring alarm bells to me and should to everybody. Who enters a room believing that they can only get out if somebody lets them out? On a civilian level, that would be kidnap, or unlawful imprisonment. As I said, either it was a bad idea to join, or our joining was poorly executed. in short, either we were lied to, or the people who took us in didn’t understand what the consequences would be. None of this alters the fact that we should be able to leave, should we so choose. Whether we wish to do business with the E.U. or not, is another matter. We are not prisoners… or are we?
Don’t take my words out of context. I was saying a “clean break”, as presented by Tory liars like Boris Johnson, can’t be done – not that Brexit can’t happen.
Nobody on either side is saying that the other side isn’t free to go at any time, but it is not to anybody’s advantage to do so. Who leaves a room in the determined belief that the floor outside is now missing and that they should jump into the chasm thus created? Only people who are determined to do themselves harm. And who leaves a room in such conditions, determined to drag 66 million other people over the precipice with them? Only people who are psychotic.
This analysis needs to be spread as widely as possible.The Tories are getting away with this idea of “No deal” being a “clean break” and that this will remove the whole dreary (actually I think it has been stimulating) debate off our TV screens.
In a way, I suppose, it WILL remove the debate from our TV screens because much of the negotiation that will follow Brexit will involve interminable talks by Civil Servants behind closed doors.
The result will be the same, of course. For ten years the UK will trade with the EU in very disadvantageous circumstances, then will finally gain a new trade deal that will produce yet more disadvantageous circumstances!