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When Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana launched their ‘Your Party’ on the left, many of us foresaw a potential seismic shift in UK politics.
But on the other side of the political spectrum, another insurgent force has been building noisily – in the form of Reform UK.
Reform UK is the homegrown evolution of the Brexit Party, the group that shook the political establishment during the 2019 European elections and the 2019 general election.
It has won support with a highly co-ordinated social media presence and populist campaigns that, for example, demonise asylum seekers.
But what does Reform UK actually represent? And what could its rise mean for the UK’s centre-right and conservative politics in the coming years?
From Brexit Party to Reform UK: a background check
Reform UK emerged from the ashes of the Brexit Party, founded in 2019 by Nigel Farage as a single-issue force to pressure Westminster to deliver Brexit.
After the UK officially left the EU in January 2020, the Brexit Party rebranded as Reform UK in early 2021 — shifting focus to broader “reform” of the UK’s political system, public services, and economy.
Reform UK began life as the Brexit Party in 2019, hoovering up European Parliament seats and terrifying the Conservatives into “getting Brexit done”. After Britain left the EU in 2020, it rebranded in early 2021 to push a broader agenda: tax cuts, deregulation, hardline immigration controls, and opposition to net-zero targets.
Richard Tice took over the leadership in 2021 — but in June 2024, Nigel Farage returned to the helm, just weeks before the general election on July 4.
Reform won five seats, including Farage’s own in Clacton, and took around 14.3 per cent of the national vote.
That made it Britain’s third-largest party in vote share — but with only a handful of MPs, thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral systeem.
The 2025 picture: not an outlier anymore
In 2025, Reform UK is polling in the mid- to high-teens nationally, with some modelled estimates placing it in direct contention for dozens of seats.
The party’s message is blunt:
-
“Take back control” — again – this time from political elites, environmental “zealots”, and what it calls “open-border extremists”.
-
Slash taxes and spending — funded by shrinking the state, axing net-zero subsidies, and cutting foreign aid.
-
Freeze immigration — with offshore processing and an end to small-boat crossings.
Farage’s personal brand — equal parts anti-establishment, media-savvy, and deliberately provocative — keeps Reform in the headlines, even when controversy risks alienating moderate voters.
Labour’s copycat trap
Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership has tried to neutralise Reform UK by edging right on key issues — tightening rhetoric on immigration, watering down climate targets, and talking tougher on law and order.
The strategy is textbook triangulation: adopt just enough of your opponent’s themes to undercut their appeal.
But it’s not working because voters tend to prefer the original to the imitation.
Polling and by-election results in 2024–25 show that when Labour echoes Reform’s talking points without matching the conviction, it often pushes voters towards Farage rather than back to Labour.
For disillusioned Tories flirting with Reform, Labour’s mimicry doesn’t win them over — it confirms that the political establishment is chasing Reform’s agenda, lending the insurgents legitimacy.
And for traditional Labour voters, it’s alienating, feeding the sense that the party has abandoned its core principles.
Money talks: Reform’s war chest
Reform UK isn’t running on a shoestring. Electoral Commission filings and media investigations show:
-
Major six-figure donations from wealthy individuals, including business magnates and former Conservative backers.
-
Targeted high-spend campaigns, such as a 2025 national mailshot costing around £2 million, raising questions from rivals about funding transparency.
-
Grassroots contributions from small donors, building a broader base beyond the big cheques.
Make no mistake: this is a party of the rich, and for the rich, hiding behind policies designed to lure in the gullible poor.
Still, Reform’s finances — while in the millions — trail far behind Labour’s and the Conservatives’ election-year war chests, which can exceed £30–40 million. That matters when trying to fund national advertising, candidate vetting, and local ground operations.
Geopolitics: Farage’s foreign policy gambit
Reform UK’s worldview is unapologetically nationalist:
-
Sceptical of NATO’s current strategy and critical of UK military aid to Ukraine, with Farage saying Western policy “provoked” Russia — comments that have drawn fierce backlash and suggestions that he is Putin’s puppet.
-
Favouring bilateral trade deals over multilateral arrangements, post-Brexit.
-
Prioritising domestic economic resilience over global supply chain integration.
For supporters, this is “realism” — for critics, it’s a dangerous flirtation with isolationism that risks weakening alliances.
Economic philosophy: Neoliberal roots, populist wrapping
Is Reform’s economic plan pragmatism – or turbo-charged Thatcherism?
Reform’s economics are rooted in monetarism and neoliberal orthodoxy:
-
Reduce government spending to cut taxes.
-
Trust private enterprise over public ownership.
-
Roll back climate regulations to spur investment.
The party rejects Modern Monetary Theory’s view that sovereign currency issuers can finance expansive public programmes without default risk.
And while Keynesian economics calls for government spending to stimulate growth, Reform warns that this risks inflation, debt spirals, and “crowding out” the private sector.
Critics argue this agenda will widen inequality, underfund public services, and lock Britain into low-wage, precarious work patterns.
Supporters counter that it’s the only route to long-term competitiveness and economic freedom.
Lessons from history and abroad
We’ve seen this movie before:
-
UKIP’s rise in the 2010s forced the Conservatives to hold the Brexit referendum.
-
The SDP split in the 1980s fractured Labour’s vote, helping the Tories dominate for over a decade.
-
Populist right parties in Europe — France’s National Rally, Germany’s AfD — have carved out durable vote shares, but often face “glass ceilings” in parliamentary systems. Both these parties push far-right extremism, and Reform’s perceived link to them makes it possible to suggest that it is an heir to fascism.
Reform’s challenge is to avoid UKIP’s fate — shaping policy from the sidelines but never securing lasting power.
What a breakthrough would require
To convert double-digit polling into a serious seat count, Reform UK would need:
-
Regional strongholds — focusing resources on winnable constituencies.
-
Credible local candidates with strong community ties.
-
Fundraising parity with the big two to match campaign visibility.
-
Electoral pacts — formal or informal — to prevent splitting the right-wing vote.
Reform struggles to find credible candidates, and has made itself look ridiculous on this level, with remarkable regularity. Even its Parliamentary representative roster has changed greatly over the year since the general election, with one MP resigning and one expelled – and gaining an MP in a by-election.
It also seems likely that Reform will need to form an electoral pact with the Conservatives. But with the other party ailing and haemorrhaging votes, this may not be enough. Without it, though, Reform risks becoming a high-vote, low-seat party indefinitely.
Risks and constraints
Reform’s rise is not pre-determined – it comes with political and operational hazards:
-
Vote splitting could gift Labour and the Lib Dems marginal wins.
-
There is media hostility — though Farage often uses it to his advantage and seems to have open access to BBC studios.
-
Internal divisions between libertarian free-marketeers and social conservatives are clear; and
-
Reform seems to misunderstand strict Electoral Commission rules — missteps on donations or spending could derail campaigns.
The verdict
Reform UK is not a sideshow. It’s a right-wing populist force with parliamentary representation, a substantial voter base, and a leader who thrives in political combat.
Whether it becomes a permanent fixture or burns out depends on whether it can beat Britain’s electoral maths — and whether the Conservatives decide to absorb or confront it.
For now, Nigel Farage is holding court in Westminster and beyond, positioning Reform UK as both kingmaker and insurgent.
And that makes it just as much a political wildcard as anything happening on the left.
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Reform UK: is the Right’s rising fringe a threat or temporary detour?
Share this post:
When Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana launched their ‘Your Party’ on the left, many of us foresaw a potential seismic shift in UK politics.
But on the other side of the political spectrum, another insurgent force has been building noisily – in the form of Reform UK.
Reform UK is the homegrown evolution of the Brexit Party, the group that shook the political establishment during the 2019 European elections and the 2019 general election.
It has won support with a highly co-ordinated social media presence and populist campaigns that, for example, demonise asylum seekers.
But what does Reform UK actually represent? And what could its rise mean for the UK’s centre-right and conservative politics in the coming years?
From Brexit Party to Reform UK: a background check
Reform UK emerged from the ashes of the Brexit Party, founded in 2019 by Nigel Farage as a single-issue force to pressure Westminster to deliver Brexit.
After the UK officially left the EU in January 2020, the Brexit Party rebranded as Reform UK in early 2021 — shifting focus to broader “reform” of the UK’s political system, public services, and economy.
Reform UK began life as the Brexit Party in 2019, hoovering up European Parliament seats and terrifying the Conservatives into “getting Brexit done”. After Britain left the EU in 2020, it rebranded in early 2021 to push a broader agenda: tax cuts, deregulation, hardline immigration controls, and opposition to net-zero targets.
Richard Tice took over the leadership in 2021 — but in June 2024, Nigel Farage returned to the helm, just weeks before the general election on July 4.
Reform won five seats, including Farage’s own in Clacton, and took around 14.3 per cent of the national vote.
That made it Britain’s third-largest party in vote share — but with only a handful of MPs, thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral systeem.
The 2025 picture: not an outlier anymore
In 2025, Reform UK is polling in the mid- to high-teens nationally, with some modelled estimates placing it in direct contention for dozens of seats.
The party’s message is blunt:
“Take back control” — again – this time from political elites, environmental “zealots”, and what it calls “open-border extremists”.
Slash taxes and spending — funded by shrinking the state, axing net-zero subsidies, and cutting foreign aid.
Freeze immigration — with offshore processing and an end to small-boat crossings.
Farage’s personal brand — equal parts anti-establishment, media-savvy, and deliberately provocative — keeps Reform in the headlines, even when controversy risks alienating moderate voters.
Labour’s copycat trap
Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership has tried to neutralise Reform UK by edging right on key issues — tightening rhetoric on immigration, watering down climate targets, and talking tougher on law and order.
The strategy is textbook triangulation: adopt just enough of your opponent’s themes to undercut their appeal.
But it’s not working because voters tend to prefer the original to the imitation.
Polling and by-election results in 2024–25 show that when Labour echoes Reform’s talking points without matching the conviction, it often pushes voters towards Farage rather than back to Labour.
For disillusioned Tories flirting with Reform, Labour’s mimicry doesn’t win them over — it confirms that the political establishment is chasing Reform’s agenda, lending the insurgents legitimacy.
And for traditional Labour voters, it’s alienating, feeding the sense that the party has abandoned its core principles.
Money talks: Reform’s war chest
Reform UK isn’t running on a shoestring. Electoral Commission filings and media investigations show:
Major six-figure donations from wealthy individuals, including business magnates and former Conservative backers.
Targeted high-spend campaigns, such as a 2025 national mailshot costing around £2 million, raising questions from rivals about funding transparency.
Grassroots contributions from small donors, building a broader base beyond the big cheques.
Make no mistake: this is a party of the rich, and for the rich, hiding behind policies designed to lure in the gullible poor.
Still, Reform’s finances — while in the millions — trail far behind Labour’s and the Conservatives’ election-year war chests, which can exceed £30–40 million. That matters when trying to fund national advertising, candidate vetting, and local ground operations.
Geopolitics: Farage’s foreign policy gambit
Reform UK’s worldview is unapologetically nationalist:
Sceptical of NATO’s current strategy and critical of UK military aid to Ukraine, with Farage saying Western policy “provoked” Russia — comments that have drawn fierce backlash and suggestions that he is Putin’s puppet.
Favouring bilateral trade deals over multilateral arrangements, post-Brexit.
Prioritising domestic economic resilience over global supply chain integration.
For supporters, this is “realism” — for critics, it’s a dangerous flirtation with isolationism that risks weakening alliances.
Economic philosophy: Neoliberal roots, populist wrapping
Is Reform’s economic plan pragmatism – or turbo-charged Thatcherism?
Reform’s economics are rooted in monetarism and neoliberal orthodoxy:
Reduce government spending to cut taxes.
Trust private enterprise over public ownership.
Roll back climate regulations to spur investment.
The party rejects Modern Monetary Theory’s view that sovereign currency issuers can finance expansive public programmes without default risk.
And while Keynesian economics calls for government spending to stimulate growth, Reform warns that this risks inflation, debt spirals, and “crowding out” the private sector.
Critics argue this agenda will widen inequality, underfund public services, and lock Britain into low-wage, precarious work patterns.
Supporters counter that it’s the only route to long-term competitiveness and economic freedom.
Lessons from history and abroad
We’ve seen this movie before:
UKIP’s rise in the 2010s forced the Conservatives to hold the Brexit referendum.
The SDP split in the 1980s fractured Labour’s vote, helping the Tories dominate for over a decade.
Populist right parties in Europe — France’s National Rally, Germany’s AfD — have carved out durable vote shares, but often face “glass ceilings” in parliamentary systems. Both these parties push far-right extremism, and Reform’s perceived link to them makes it possible to suggest that it is an heir to fascism.
Reform’s challenge is to avoid UKIP’s fate — shaping policy from the sidelines but never securing lasting power.
What a breakthrough would require
To convert double-digit polling into a serious seat count, Reform UK would need:
Regional strongholds — focusing resources on winnable constituencies.
Credible local candidates with strong community ties.
Fundraising parity with the big two to match campaign visibility.
Electoral pacts — formal or informal — to prevent splitting the right-wing vote.
Reform struggles to find credible candidates, and has made itself look ridiculous on this level, with remarkable regularity. Even its Parliamentary representative roster has changed greatly over the year since the general election, with one MP resigning and one expelled – and gaining an MP in a by-election.
It also seems likely that Reform will need to form an electoral pact with the Conservatives. But with the other party ailing and haemorrhaging votes, this may not be enough. Without it, though, Reform risks becoming a high-vote, low-seat party indefinitely.
Risks and constraints
Reform’s rise is not pre-determined – it comes with political and operational hazards:
Vote splitting could gift Labour and the Lib Dems marginal wins.
There is media hostility — though Farage often uses it to his advantage and seems to have open access to BBC studios.
Internal divisions between libertarian free-marketeers and social conservatives are clear; and
Reform seems to misunderstand strict Electoral Commission rules — missteps on donations or spending could derail campaigns.
The verdict
Reform UK is not a sideshow. It’s a right-wing populist force with parliamentary representation, a substantial voter base, and a leader who thrives in political combat.
Whether it becomes a permanent fixture or burns out depends on whether it can beat Britain’s electoral maths — and whether the Conservatives decide to absorb or confront it.
For now, Nigel Farage is holding court in Westminster and beyond, positioning Reform UK as both kingmaker and insurgent.
And that makes it just as much a political wildcard as anything happening on the left.
Share this post:
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