A supermarket scene with a family staring at the cost of orange juice in disbelief (it can be signified by a price tag bearing an image of an explosion), while through the window an obviously well-to-do family, brandishing tickets, head for the airport in the distance.

Good weather is blamed for high inflation

Last Updated: August 20, 2025By

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Bad news from the Office for National Statistics:

Prices in the UK rose by 3.8% in the year to July, driven mainly by a jump in the price of air fares and food.

That means inflation is at its highest level since January 2024 and still far above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

The cost of eating out, as well as food and non-alcoholic beverages more generally, helped to push up prices, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Beef, chocolate and confectionery, instant coffee, and fresh orange juice saw some of the biggest price rises.

Climate-driven food costs

The biggest contributor to household misery is food.

The ONS reports that the cost of eating out and supermarket staples like beef, chocolate, coffee and orange juice all climbed sharply.

This is climate change hitting us at the checkout. As global harvests are disrupted by droughts, heatwaves and shifting weather patterns, the price of foodstuffs rises – creating even more pain for our suffering hospitality sector as it is forced to pass on higher costs to customers.

UK farmers are already warning that this summer’s dry weather is damaging crops, meaning more price rises are on the way.

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That means eating out is becoming even less affordable for families, just as the cafés and restaurants themselves are struggling to keep their doors open.

An inflation spike built on air fares

Meanwhile, the largest single jump in this month’s data was air fares – up a record 30.2% between June and July.

But here, the rise is partly artificial. The ONS admits its July data collection coincided with the start of the school holidays this year in a way it didn’t last year. In other words, the timing of the survey has exaggerated the impact.

And who’s driving this surge? People who can still afford to jet off to the sun? It’s their spending that is baked into the headline inflation rate – and that, in turn, is what the Bank of England uses to decide on interest rates.

Ordinary households who never saw a boarding pass this summer are effectively penalised by the spending patterns of those who did.

The politics of pain

Chancellor Rachel Reeves insists the government has “stabilised the public finances”, while the Conservatives blame Labour for “pushing up costs”, and the Liberal Democrats demand radical moves on energy bills.

But the truth is simple: families already struggling with weekly shopping bills are caught in a pincer movement – rising prices driven by climate impacts on the food supply, and a distorted inflation figure inflated by the holiday habits of the wealthy.

The Bank of England has just cut interest rates slightly, but with inflation expected to peak at four per cent in September, further relief looks uncertain. What is certain is this:

Inflation is still being felt most sharply by those who can least afford it – and the political class has yet to come up with a serious plan to deal with that reality.

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