If the bookies are right, how many seats would each party win in Scotland in May? – alittleecon

Last Updated: January 1, 2015By


There have been a lot of stories recently about opinion polls north of the border showing a huge surge in SNP support at the expense of Labour. This article in the Guardian last week is a good example, which predicted that the SNP could win up to 45 of the 59 Scottish seats next May, writes Alex Little.

With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to see whether the bookies (and their punters) agreed with these dire (for Labour) predictions.

The current odds don’t reflect the polls… The headline numbers don’t look too bad for Labour. They have 40 seats at the moment and remain favourites to win in 33 of those in May. They current odds suggest they will lose just 7 seats to the SNP, who in turn will all but wipe out the Lib Dems, leaving them with just 3 seats, while the Tories retain their only Scottish seat. In a further 3 seats, Ladbrokes have the SNP tied with Labour.

A closer look at the odds though should give Labour less cause for complacency however.

Give alittleecon a visit to see the full article, but Alex’s parting words are well-chosen: These are only the current odds of course, and they will undoubtedly change before election day. So will the polls though. The SNP are doing fantastically well in the polls are the moment, but surely they will narrow somewhat between now and May? It seems fairly set in stone now that the Lib Dems will be almost wiped out in Scotland in May, while for Labour, it could still go either way.

Follow me on Twitter: @MidWalesMike

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  1. Neil Mac January 1, 2015 at 5:35 pm - Reply

    Great shame to see that the Tories are predicted to retain their one remaining Scottish seat. It would be nice to see them wiped out altogether.

    • Mike Sivier January 1, 2015 at 6:29 pm - Reply

      Perhaps Scottish Tories all live in the same constituency?

  2. Thomas M January 1, 2015 at 6:24 pm - Reply

    The Lib Dems will soon be toasty toast in Scotland, and it’s Clegg’s fault. Happy New Year 2015 to you, let’s hope it sees the end of this government.

    • Mike Sivier January 1, 2015 at 6:27 pm - Reply

      Absolutely; thank you; Happy New Year to you too.

  3. casalealex January 2, 2015 at 1:40 am - Reply

    Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right? Robert Orben

    Happy New Year to you all! This year is gonna be our year! Things can only get better! As a political beast my message to all is: We are the people, we will make change for the better, our children and grandchidren deserve it, and so do we! The way forward is to vote
    Labour! Love to you all! xx

  4. chris k. January 4, 2015 at 11:16 am - Reply

    Uh? Having lived in Scotland for the past six years I know one fact for sure and that is the Scots vote with their hearts and not with their pockets and finances in mind. If they see unfairness and a lack of empathy as shown by the Tories then they, the Tories , are unlikely to win any seats in Scotland. I think it will be a close race between the SNP and Labour , but if those people who voted NO during the referendum feel they have been betrayed by Labour then they too will switch to the SNP . But either way I think it’s a close one to call as there is also the EU referendum hanging over the proceedings . In other words WHO KNOWS and don’t trust ANY polls taken in Scotland.

    • Mike Sivier January 4, 2015 at 11:44 am - Reply

      What about those people who voted YES and are realising that the SNP relies on smear strategies and emotive appeals?

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