These are very interesting arguments, from the Pertinent Problems blog. Comments are, as always, welcomed. As this is about Scotland/the SNP, This Writer is duty-bound to request that any contributions be rational and polite.
Although the SNP now have 56 of the 59 seats, their push for independence is weaker than you might think.
The North Sea rigs mean that oil would make up the vast majority of an independent Scotland’s exports and account for thousands of jobs. With the recent plummet in the price per barrel it is no surprise that Mrs Sturgeon is biding her time for a referendum.
This should be good for Scotland; I personally believe that it is much stronger in the union (though that is a discussion for another time) and hopefully nationalism and the sizeable support for independence (it was 45% in the referendum in September last year) will die down significantly before a viable opportunity for a referendum presents itself.
But Mrs Sturgeon has another, more cunning, reason for waiting.
With the debate on Britain’s membership of the EU beginning to heat up and opinion polls shifting from just 27% favouring an exit in June 2015 to 38% earlier this month, the possibility of a Brexit is becoming increasingly likely.
If Britain does vote to leave, Mrs Sturgeon’s party has said they she would push for a referendum and it seems likely that she’d win it.
Hopefully for the sake of the Union and the people of Britain neither of those things will happen.
Source: There will be no referendum for the time being | Pertinent Problems
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No fan of Sturgeon or Scottish Nationalism, but I don’t think you can call her “devious” for not holding a referendum within 3 years of the last one.
But as you say, it’s the Scottish economy and its deficit that makes it a really hard sell. It isn’t just about the oil crash though. It’s usually in deficit with the rest of the UK. See Kevin Hague’s blog passim.
Polite as ever Mike. I sincerely hope that the UK doesn’t vote to leave the EU. Although it is a fairly corrupt organisation and I don’t agree with much of their policies, there are more pros than cons to membership, as long as Cameron doesn’t antagonise them any more than he already has. The immigration situation is being milked dry by those who want to leave, whipped up by the media. Tories never mention the grants available (Cameron refused to claim emergency grants for Somerset), Laws that curb excesses of individual governments (no surprise there with his human rights fiasco), grants for local projects, the ease of trade or travel. Some of us will remember Osborne’s pitiful attempt to convince us that he had got one over on the EU regarding money we owed them, but much of the electorate will have believed him. I believe we get more out of the EU than we put in, although I would like to see it run in a more democratic manner.
I don’t believe that the SNP will automatically use a Brexit as an excuse for another referendum. Obviously they want our independence. That is their goal in life and it will not change. However, Sturgeon is far too savvy to try for another referendum too soon, despite being harangued by her new membership. It will not be held until a positive outcome is virtually guaranteed.