These are very interesting arguments, from the Pertinent Problems blog. Comments are, as always, welcomed. As this is about Scotland/the SNP, This Writer is duty-bound to request that any contributions be rational and polite.

 Although the SNP now have 56 of the 59 seats, their push for independence is weaker than you might think.

The North Sea rigs mean that oil would make up the vast majority of an independent Scotland’s exports and account for thousands of jobs. With the recent plummet in the price per barrel it is no surprise that Mrs Sturgeon is biding her time for a referendum.

This should be good for Scotland; I personally believe that it is much stronger in the union (though that is a discussion for another time) and hopefully nationalism and the sizeable support for independence (it was 45% in the referendum in September last year) will die down significantly before a viable opportunity for a referendum presents itself.

But Mrs Sturgeon has another, more cunning, reason for waiting.

With the debate on Britain’s membership of the EU beginning to heat up and opinion polls shifting from just 27% favouring an exit in June 2015 to 38% earlier this month, the possibility of a Brexit is becoming increasingly likely.

If Britain does vote to leave, Mrs Sturgeon’s party has said they she would push for a referendum and it seems likely that she’d win it.

Hopefully for the sake of the Union and the people of Britain neither of those things will happen.

Source: There will be no referendum for the time being | Pertinent Problems

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