As Corbyn’s Labour closes to five points, has the Establishment shot itself in the foot? | The SKWAWKBOX Blog

160818 opinion poll

Mr Walker’s article also points out the embarrassing fact (to the anti-Corbyns) that at the end of the BBC debate, when host Victoria Derbyshire invited the ‘undecided’ section of the audience to move to the side of whichever speaker had convinced them, all moved to Corbyn’s side, except for three or four non-movers and, after a long pause, one man who moved to Smith’s.

He wrote that every leadership debate contrasts Corbyn’s statesmanlike integrity, gravitas and genuinely different policies with Smith’s style “which primarily consists of adding ‘but in GOVERNMENT!’ to the end of every sentence”.

The message is getting through. For the last couple of weeks, the Anyone But Corbyn brigade has been pointing to that disastrous ‘minus 14 per cent’ opinion poll to prop up their argument.

Now they don’t even have that.

This Writer predicts some really dirty tactics in the immediate future.

From a low of 14% behind just a few weeks ago, Labour had closed to 7% last week. 5% is not where Corbyn or any of his supporters would want to be, but considering the constant ‘briefing against’ by the PLP (parliamentary Labour Party) against Corbyn’s leadership abilities and (ludicrously) about his effort in the EU referendum, spurious and completely unevidenced allegations by Labour MPs of ‘abuse’ by Corbyn supporters, a concocted anti-semitism row and relentlessly negative coverage even by the so-called ‘liberal media’, to be closing the gap is remarkable.

Has the Establishment shot itself in the foot by organising the ‘Chicken Coup’ to try to force Corbyn to resign and then manufacturing a leadership challenge?

Until the referendum result, coverage of Corbyn in the media was slim and invariably negative. As a recent study by the London School of Economics showed, most articles about Corbyn gave him no ‘voice’ – that is, his actual words never featured.

But the series of leadership debates and, to a lesser extent, the grudging media coverage of his addresses to huge pro-Corbyn rallies, is giving Labour supporters and the wider public to hear from, and assess for themselves, Corbyn’s words, policies, character.

Source: As Corbyn’s Labour closes to 5 points, has Establishment shot itself in foot? | The SKWAWKBOX Blog


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11 thoughts on “As Corbyn’s Labour closes to five points, has the Establishment shot itself in the foot? | The SKWAWKBOX Blog

  1. Jeffrey Davies

    to believe or not that initself is the story corbyn is a man thrust into the leadership rally to find that the peasants belive in him yet they say labours behind hmmm i wonder if a snap election was called corbyn once more will be made pm you only have to look 24percent voted tory

  2. Rusty

    Corbyn is a gentleman in a world of slogan politics! The general public are now starting to see this for themselves! Very good work Mike, I’ve learned so much from your blog.

  3. Jsteel

    The comparable Ipsos Mori poll (as the post uses the figures of pre-adjustment to likelihood of voting) was a month ago, and in that Labour was 4% ahead (almost certainly an outlier) so it is a 9% drop. If you want to compare the current one to other polling companies, you have to use the adjusted figures, and in that the Tories are ahead by 11%.

    Considering the mayhem with the coup, and the May-honeymoon, the large Tory lead is not surprising and unlikely to move until early winter.

    1. Mike Sivier Post author

      Interesting. So you think there’ll be a change once the leader election is over and Labour has bedded itself back into some sort of operating order?
      It shows the amount of damage that can be done by a group of vandals on the inside. Thanks to the Anyone But Corbyn mob, Labour has lost six months – possibly a crucial six months, what with the EU referendum and the ascension of Theresa May to Number 10.

      1. Jsteel

        Yes, I think it is a correct assessment. Six months lost – after the leadership vote at the end of September there will have to be some serious organisational measures implemented and it will take a couple of months (or more). I hope that there would NOT be a peace offer for all the conspirators, so a much tighter project could be run. There are plenty of votes among former UKIP voters, probably green as well. Then achieving voter registration, and persuading the younger people to vote, and also the people who had not voted in general (or local) elections for ages, but turned up at the referendum (and voted for leave). To do this, the LP needs a Corbyn-friendly bureaucracy, and little obstacle from the PLP, as the same message would have to be relied in different forms, so more freedom of action is needed. There are more to it – not last the poisonous solutions to Brexit.

      2. hayfords

        My guess is that if Smith were to win, there would be a leadership challenge next year from the Blairites

      3. Rusty

        Owen smith is a blairite! Don’t get fooled by his BS, he’s in the pocket of big business so most of his pledges are lies, did you notice how much water he drinks? Dry mouth when you lie and struggle to hide it!

  4. Brian

    Through their own arrogance, they have severely underestimated the respect Corbyn receives, yes they have shot themselves in the foot, the only question now is will sepsis take hold.

  5. Steven Wheeler

    According to Mori: CON 45%(+9), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 6%(-2), GRN 4%(nc). I’m a Corbyn supporter but lying about polls is both wrong and stupid. We simultaneously give our own supporters false comfort while opening ourselves up to attack from anybody who can be bothered to Google the correct figures. Stupid and disgusting!

    1. Mike Sivier Post author

      Interesting. You’re the first of several people to contact me about this.
      The article is – as is clearly labelled – a reblog of one from Steve Walker’s Skwawkbox Blog. I’ll ask him what’s going on.

  6. John

    Mike: Check this out:-

    Voting Intention in Great Britain: Recent Trends
    Figures based on all those absolutely certain to vote.
    (T) = Telephone polls

    2016 Con Lab LibDem SNP/Plaid Cymru Green UKIP Other Lab lead
    % % % % % % % %
    23-25 January 2016 (T) 40 31 7 5 4 11 1 -9
    13-16 February 2016 (T) 39 33 6 7 3 12 1 -6
    19-22 March 2016 (T) 36 34 10 6 3 11 1 -2
    16-18 April 2016 (T) 38 35 6 7 3 11 * -3
    14th – 16th May 2016 (T) 36 34 8 6 5 10 1 -2
    11th – 14th June 2016 (T) 35 34 9 7 4 10 1 -1
    9th – 11th July 2016 (T) 36 35 11 6 4 8 * -1


    Where this is a trend, it is in the switch between UKIP and Lib Dem support over time, as well as steadily improving support for Labour.

    Hope this proves useful.

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