Elections in Europe mean UK should delay invoking Article 50 or have only 18 months for negotiations

Theresa May [Image: Niall Carson/PA Images/Getty Images].

On one level, this is actually reassuring.

If negotiations are held up until after some of the major EU nations finish their election cycle, it gives Theresa May and her rabble a chance to pull themselves together and work out exactly what they want and how to get it.

But there is also the fact that the timescale they will have in which to get it will be significantly shorter than they claimed, and that they have misled the people of the UK about the practicalities of the situation.

It seems to This Writer that a negotiation as complicated as this should be given as much time as possible.

So why the haste to get Article 50 triggered before the end of March?

Well, there’s rumour going around that, after April 1, any invocation of any part of the Lisbon Treaty requires a qualified majority of at least 55 per cent of all Member States’ Heads of Government/State present to actually allow it. This would mean the Council of Europe could block invocation of Article 50 and there would be nothing the UK Government could do about it.

What do you think of that?

I should stress that it is just a rumour and may be a misinterpretation of the Lisbon Treaty (and those that went before it). However, if a treaty is open to such misinterpretation, it occurs to me that it isn’t very well-drafted in the first place.

And does it really matter? If a country wishes to leave the EU, it seems unlikely that any of the other member states would want to do anything as undemocratic as blocking it.

But it also seems that Mrs May and her cronies may be rushing to beat a March 31 deadline, even though rational thought suggests that they don’t have to.

This Writer would say the UK should wait; draw up plans in readiness for the new European governments that will be installed by the end of 2017 and invoke Article 50 then.

There is absolutely no need to rush out of the European Union at all.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s resolution to complete Brexit negotiations within a two year timeframe could come back to haunt her as unpredictable European elections look set to push back talks by more than six months, according to one senior economist.

Despite May’s plans to trigger Article 50 in March and begin talks in March for a new U.K.-EU relationship, discussions could be on hold until as late as September, when Germany goes to the polls to choose its new Chancellor, Markus Kuger, senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet, told CNBC.

Germany’s is the last of three major European elections to take place this year. In March, the Netherlands will select its new leader, followed by France in April.

“There’s no point making agreements when the government is changing. If you start negotiations and make tentative agreements with existing governments the incoming parties may not feel bound to it,” Kuger said.

Source: UK could have little more than one year for Brexit negotiations, economist says

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2 thoughts on “Elections in Europe mean UK should delay invoking Article 50 or have only 18 months for negotiations

  1. NMac

    There is also a rush and an attempt to stifle debate because they know that if the public get to know too much about the possible catastrophic consequences of Brexit then public money would seriously harden against it. Which is probably why the freakish individual Redwood is doing his best to prevent debate.

  2. Barry Davies

    Elections in foreign nations should have no influence on when we invoke article 50, something that should have been months ago, if America can have a Presidential election during the second world war I’m sure that we cope with minor details, after all it is the unelected eu commission that is negotiating the deal.

Comments are closed.