Look at this clip and tell us who seems most popular – Corbyn or May?

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17 thoughts on “Look at this clip and tell us who seems most popular – Corbyn or May?

  1. joanna

    if corbyn is popular why do I feel so doomed about June 8th? aren’t local elections an indication of the general election? though where i live Hull we didn’t have local elections.

    1. Mike Sivier Post author

      Analysis of local elections puts Labour around 10 points behind the Tories – meaning the Tory lead is still being diminished, every day.

      1. Ultraviolet

        The day before the local elections, YouGov had the Tories on 48%. Later that day, I saw a whole host of articles across numerous media outlets urging us to remember that the local elections were not necessarily a reflection of how the general election would go. When I saw those, I immediately thought that someone knew the Tories had done worse than the polls indicated, and was trying to ensure that that fact did not disrupt the “Tory landslide” narrative.

        I had these wild, optimistic hopes that the Tories’ projected national vote share might be down as low as 40%. When it came in at only 38%, I was gobsmacked. That is only 1% above the 2015 tally. You might have thought that the Tories underpeforming the previous day’s poll by 10%, and being barely up on the vote share that got them their current marginal majority, might have been worthy of some comment and analysis, but with our current media, you would have been wrong, with the sole exception of an article by John Curtice in the Independent.

        The subsequent Sky projection suggested the Tories would have a majority of 48, with Labour losing just 14 seats – not great, but hardly the apocalypse the Tories and New Labour types have been gloating about. But it also assumed that the Lib Dems would not win back a single seat from the Tories, which strikes me as a courageous prediction. (Not to mention the Tories still being vulnerable to the wipeout of their entire majority if election expenses charges are brought.)

        When all the commentators talk about how historically bad the polls are for Labour, and good for the Tories, they overlook one major fact. We are no longer in a two-party system. There are Lib Dem and SNP seats/targets where the Labour vote is negligible. This means that looking solely at how the Tories are doing against Labour does NOT reflect how they are doing against the opposition as a whole. Indeed, it is one of the ironies of the last election that Labour doing BETTER in Lib Dem seats is what handed the Tories their majority in 2015.

        It would not take much more movement in the polls away from the Tories for the result to be a disaster for May.

      2. Mike Sivier Post author

        That is encouraging to read, although we should remember that the Liberal Democrats will happily betray all the principles they claim to have, and go into another coalition with the Tories if they get the chance.

    2. NMac

      Joanna, although I feel some concern, I don’t think a Tory landslide is by any means inevitable. Personally I am trying to stay optimistic after all, as Harold Wilson said, “A week is a long time in politics”.

  2. John thurman

    Sorry Mike but it seems the vast majority of votes are from sheepile. They will follow what ever the papers tell them. And the conservertives are in control. It’s so sad this country is so deluded about how being in Europe has helped our right’s especially the disabled. It’s very sad that the majority of UK voters want to s**t on the rights of the disabled and crap on their own rights under surveillance laws they now want to do is repeal the human rights act. I have lost faith in the world that I will have to live in and feel so sorry for the woman. My friend who I care for. Both agree We would be better dead than this **** that’s coming. It’s obvious people love money too much to care. Welcome to a Christian government. Wish you all the best john

  3. Rusty

    It was the same with bernie Sanders in the states! The rich and powerful control the media and the minds of weak fools! It’s an uphill struggle you have mike! Stay strong fella!

  4. Mark Waters

    With all the media against the SNP it still retained 43% of the vote in the local elections..In England and Wales.Corbyn has a good chance if all of the Labour party back him up and go around the country.. meeting and arguing with ordinary people.about a better society..I always remember the Major soap box moment when he won that election .

    1. Mike Sivier Post author

      I don’t know, but we seem to be doing well with students at the moment.

  5. John

    anti-Corbyners might put up the argument that Corbyn seems more popular, because the only ppl attending HIS events are ppl who ALREADY support him?
    We can’t really tell with May, bcos she never seems to allow anyone near?!

    1. Mike Sivier Post author

      Isn’t that the point, though? Corbyn actually has supporters, while May’s events are ticket-only, with people appointed to attend.

      1. John

        Given the various theories floating around about why she is behaving in the way that she is, and given that she’s said she’s taking nothing for granted, I’m puzzled as to why the ‘hidden’ meetings? Unless it’s just all bull, because she hasn’t got anything else worth saying?
        Of course, there was the point made above, about the sheep who just follow! Perhaps that’s what she’s counting on?

  6. Lesle Digby

    I wish that Jeremy would attend show up May’s non attendance at forthcoming TV debates or does anyone think this is the right way forward (i.e non attendance by both) and if so why? To stupid people of whom there are many it seems, it will look as if he is scared although they won’t think that of May.

    1. Mike Sivier Post author

      They will attend a debate of one form – answering questions from an audience, individually. I expect the audience will be hand-picked by BBC producers.

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