Second Brexit referendum more likely as support increases to 16-point lead

The poll for the Guardian found a growing number of people are worried about Brexit’s impact on the UK economy [Image: Peter Nicholls/Reuters].

This poll result will be one in the eye for Brextremists, whose mantra is “You lost – get over it”.

Even Leave voters have supported a second referendum, with a quarter of them voting for it in the ICM poll.

It’s no surprise that Labour voters are shifting to a firmer support for remaining in the EU. We’ve heard the arguments, seen the evidence, and we know what we believe.

The real question is what motivates pensioners to want to leave.  How is that going to improve our fortunes? Do they think it will be a return to the old days of the post-war economic consensus?

If so, I’ve got bad news for them: Times have changed. Decades of neoliberal dogma mean there’s no return to those times. The Tories have eroded the UK’s industrial base to a point where we cannot survive on our own, and globalism means nation states are increasingly at the mercy of international corporations.

Mrs May’s Brexit policies are designed to worsen both situations.

Perhaps these voters haven’t noticed yet?

If Brexit happens, they will.

Voters support the idea of holding a second EU referendum by a 16-point margin, according to one of the largest nationwide opinion polls since the Brexit vote.

The ICM survey, conducted as part of a Guardian reporting project, found 47% of people would favour having a final say on Brexit once the terms of the UK’s departure are known, while 34% oppose reopening the question.

Excluding the roughly one-fifth who do not have a view gives a lead of 58% to 42% for a second referendum, showing rising interest in the idea as concern grows over the direction of recent negotiations.

The increased backing has come from both sides of the debate, with one-quarter of leave voters in favour of having another referendum on the final deal.

Other key findings include:

Mounting concern about the impact of leaving, with 43% of voters worried Brexit will have a negative effect on the UK economy and a narrow majority believing it will have a negative impact on the “British way of life”.

Signs that Labour voters may be becoming more open to a rethink, with 9% of the party’s leave backers switching to remain, and stronger support for a second referendum in marginal Labour seats than elsewhere.

A hardening of the Brexit demographic divide, with young voters 17% more likely than before to support remain and over-65s more determined than ever to leave.

Source: Brexit: Britons favour second referendum by 16-point margin – poll | Politics | The Guardian


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10 thoughts on “Second Brexit referendum more likely as support increases to 16-point lead

  1. corneleus51

    I don’t know whose figures you go by, but I and nearly all my family and freinds are “Remoaners!” interstingly, we were around the first time that it was to be voted on to hoin the market. We old ‘uns remember the real democracy when the raving right took away the vote because “The people could not be trusted to vote the way the Tories wanted us to (Vote yes was what they wanted) so there is democracy Tory style! But, the protection from those slavers meant being in the market. Nothing has changed. We pensioners want to remain!

    1. NMac

      Actually “corneleus51” the referendum of 1975 was not a vote to join the EEC (as the EU was then), it was a vote on whether Britain should leave or remain. Britain actually joined the EEC two years previously in 1973. Fortunately, in 1975, common sense prevailed.

      Incidentally, when we joined the EEC Farage was nine years old, and at the time of the 1975 referendum he was 11 years old – over the decades since then his mental age appears to have remained static.

  2. Barry Davies

    The right, Tory party took us into the common market on a lie, it is for the benefit of the rich after all. The right wing nu labour denied us a vote after promising us one before the right wing Tory party finally gave us a say but only after the eu sent Cameron home with his tail between his legs, and without the cap he had in his hand when he begged for very little. Fortunately the left wing voters this time voted leave, after all most leave votes came in traditional labour supporting areas, Tony Benn was right, it’s a shame there are still so many nu labour supporters.

    1. Mike Sivier Post author

      Left wing voters mostly voted Remain, Barry. You always lie about this and it makes a nonsense of anything else you have to say.

      1. Zippi

        Unless a poll of every voter was taken, it is impossible to know. There are many swing voters and in that referendum, many first-time voters.

      2. PresidentDonaldTrump (@myplaceatonce)

        the country has voted out! there will be ne second referendum, shall we have another general election cos we dont like the tories? no, thats daft i hear u say, well, so is having a second ref, 17 million ppl have spoken. even if they won by 1 vote, thats the deciding vote!!!

      3. Mike Sivier Post author

        We have general elections at regular intervals and, in extraordinary times, more often than that. There were only two years between the last two elections. So, by your own example, having another referendum isn’t “daft” at all.

  3. Zippi

    I say, again; based on what? Unless the electorate knows what the E.U. is, how it works, what it does, what it is supposed to do etc. There is absolutely no point in holding another referendum. You ask why pensioners voted to leave; perhaps it is because they do know what the E.U. is etc. and they don’t like it. I don’t know. Remember, people voted to remain, or leave for many different reasons but I contend that we were asked about whether, or not we wished to remain members of the institution that is the E.U., nothing else. Unless the E.U., or our attitude towards it have changed, I see no just cause for another referendum, because we have not yet ceased our membership.
    I say, again, if our M.P.s were clued up, they would have put in the checks and balances when the Referendum Bill was put before Parliament but it would appear that both the Commons and the £ords held the electorate in such contempt that they didn’t see fit to do so, because they assumed that the electorate would do as they would, or wanted. We did not and as a consequence of their inaction, are ill prepared.
    With almost incessant talk of a further referendum on the question, how many people have armed themselves with that knowledge? How many of those who access this site know any more about the E.U. than they did at the time of the referendum? Do you know any more? This is what bothers me; people are being encouraged to call for another referendum but again without sufficient knowledge of what they are being asked, which, one could say, is a kind of manipulation. Where are the debates? Where are the facts for which the people cried in 2016? Knowledge is power and without it, we become tools in the hands of those who have it. If you want another referendum, know what you will be voting for and why!

  4. Brian

    Voting for Brexit is much like voting Tory. The only question over 65’s have to ask is ‘to what end’. Speaking to this group, I have failed to identify one single good argument for benefit of outcome. What is apparent however is a quiet disdain, if not hate for the younger predominantly mixed ethnicity population and resentment of a system that supports them. It seems to me that there is evidence of a ‘spite’ vote, that has a price for their grandchildren they are willing to pay. The only logic I can draw is many will not be around to endure the future. My money would be on a deep seated prejudice of the post war generation, reinforced by the media and Tories.

  5. Pat Sheehan

    I consider myself a ‘left-wing socialist’ but due to the political nature of the areas in which I have lived in the past I have often voted tactically – as they say – to keep the Conservatives OUT: it used to work but not anymore.
    I have always supported the idea of a ‘United Europe’ as the EEC or the EU from the very start and wrote an essay in support of this as an eleven year old at primary school: that’s what we did at ordinary Church of England School in those days.
    I still support the ideal and consider the only way to change things for the better is to work from the inside: not the outside. I day-dream of ‘one world’ as a reality.
    I would change my view and change my vote to ‘Leave’ only if the UK enjoyed the actuality of a true left-wing socialist government and could demonstrate that only by leaving the EU could the UK develop policy that would benefit the economy and ordinary working people as well as the economy: for the many not the few.

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