Should Labour be worried about opinion poll slump? Apparently not.
Not bothered: This was taken on an earlier occasion but may well illustration Jeremy Corbyn and Jennie Formby’s response to the Opinium poll.
A new opinion poll has suggested the fortunes of the Labour and Conservative parties have been reversed, with Labour falling six points and the Tories up four, giving Mrs May’s party a seven-point lead.
The Opinium poll for The Observer gives the Conservatives 41 per cent and Labour 34 per cent. It suggests that Labour has lose support from both sides of the Brexit debate.
Approval for Theresa May’s handling of Brexit has risen to -30 per cent, while approval for Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of it has fallen to -40 per cent, according to the poll.
It also shows increased support for Mrs May’s deal – although most people still think it is bad.
But is it cause for Labour MPs to be concerned?
Consider:
Polls are there to influence public opinion, not measure it
— Bob (@LucienSanchezz) February 3, 2019
There’s a lot here to support “Bob”‘s claim. What, suddenly support for Labour slumps and Mrs May enjoys a surge? After the month she’s just had?
It’s not realistic.
Shaun Lawson has written a Twitter thread that appeals for common sense, as you can see:
First of all, it's one poll. If I see 5 or 6 polls all telling the same story, fair enough. But other companies still have Labour ahead – and as the only pollster to get both 2015 and 2017 right, Survation are the one to look for above all.
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
Here's @MonaChalabi on why polls are so corrosive for democracy: https://t.co/18o7ruZKzD
And here's me repeatedly calling out the polls here: https://t.co/MKCQDIkOd2
Here: https://t.co/F8b2zTvOpN
And here (credit @AaronBastani's thoughts here too): https://t.co/V3sxQ98dld
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
It would be if the Lib Dems were up significantly – but they're not. They're up one measly point: of no consequence in any opinion poll. In fact, UKIP aren't up either, which makes me instinctively question the poll. But the danger here is of Labour voters moving back to UKIP.
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
And of course, it's amplified by a media which blames Corbyn for anything under the sun, excuses May completely, and makes Labour seem like they're blocking the "will of the people", when they're doing no such thing. This is a huge danger for Labour.
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
Is this why Theresa May is trying to bribe Labour MPs with financial incentives for their constituencies if they support her deal? If they refuse, she can say not only that they have betrayed their voters by turning down the investment, but also that they have betrayed Brexit – “the will of the people”.
Politics are very fluid right now: almost unprecedently so. No-one knows what's going to happen between now and the end of March; Article 50 might well be extended. Again, that's why you should take all polls between now and then with a modicum of sodium chloride.
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
And I'm also expecting any MP who leaves the Labour Party, as is being reported tonight, to be electorally crushed by furious local constituents. Which they abundantly deserve to be. It really couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people.
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
It’s interesting that some hard-right (centrists? Don’t make me laugh) Labour MPs are planning to quit the party. I’ve seen a rumour that Jeremy Corbyn has been given an ultimatum – to show he has achieved real change over claims of anti-Semitism in the party within a week – in order to provide these MPs with an excuse to leave that would be extremely damaging to the party they’re planning to quit.
They don't seek to defeat the evil of antisemitism. They try and amplify it at every turn. They abstained on welfare reform and thought Labour should support austerity. They are absolutely oblivious to the needs of their constituents. They treat activists like dirt on their shoe.
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
These people aren't Labour. They're wreckers. The job of any Labour MP is very simple: stand with those with nothing, who are voiceless, give them power and a voice. These individuals seem to think their job involves increasing their own power & disregarding those voting for them
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
I don't personally want anyone to leave. But I am sick to death of a bunch of self-obsessed narcissists doing everything they can to stop a Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn; everything they can to repeat 1981. If they do leave, I have one simple message. Good riddance.
— Shaun Lawson (@shaunjlawson) February 3, 2019
So there are many possible reasons for Labour to be slumping in the polls, including misdirection from the Tories (and their puppet media) over Brexit and also false claims about Jeremy Corbyn from MPs who no longer represent the interests of party members.
But let’s get back to the substantive issue: Does this poll mean anything?
I’d say the answer to that is no – for a very simple reason provided in this response to the first post in Shaun’s thread:
https://twitter.com/DelicateDave/status/1091860961462534144
Polls can influence politicians as well as the public.
But it seems Mrs May is not sufficiently influenced to call an election – despite having been urged to do so since before Christmas.
Perhaps she knows something we don’t.
Perhaps that’s why we shouldn’t be overly concerned about an outlier among recent opinion polls.
I don’t agree with trying to get the NuLabour ‘centrists’ to stay. If they fail to derail Labour’s GE chances, they will attempt to wreck any attempt by a Corbyn-led administration to introduce elements of social justice, too. Better out, than in ~ as the old saying goes.
I think they should leave as soon as possible , they are more interested in themselves than the people and membership of Labour which has a membership of 5000.330 people a lot more than Tories have or will have. They have a leadership who is loyal to its people and will treat them equally as the ordinary voters rather than the few who will do their best to wreck the Party and claim as much for themselves in paying less tax and more in expenses, whilst having the people pay more tax than they can afford. I’m definitely voting Labour, with Jeremy Corbyn as leader.
Hmmm you got to laugh were was it taken amongst Tory supporters
We need to get the hard right ‘centrists’ out. It’s blatantly obvious to anyone who has concern over these matters that they are self-serving and out to get Corbyn, no matter what. Now, I don’t know if it’s because they have Israel as their puppet/pay master and Israel wants Corbyn gone – how could I possibly know that? But whatever their reasons, it’s clear they are insidious, and they will stop at nothing. Whether we win an election or not, they want Corbyn out. And for sure they would not fight to win any election for Labour.
What I can’t understand is why some of them – not all – have not yet had votes of no confidence brought against them by their CLPs. Although, in the case of one MP I can see why they would be intimidated (frightened) to do so – because the CLP know they will be abused, bullied and labelled ‘trots’, stalinists’ and ‘antisemites’.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – disagree about anything with these MPs and you are automatically labelled an antisemite, or accused of abuse. You cannot have a rational argument with them. This is where the bullying and intimidation comes in – if you cannot feel at ease and confident enough to argue with someone in your party, for fear of being abused, bullied and called racist names, then something is amiss. And this is precisely what these MPs do best – abuse, bully and intimidate.
THAT is why such MPs will not be a loss to the party. I am sure their respective CLPs will sigh in relief if they do go of their own accord. They do NOT represent the Labour Party or its values, and they should be booted out of the party as soon as possible. Just as so many were unjustly booted out, for no sane reason, when the Chicken Coup tried to oust Corbyn in 2016.
These MPs should rightly face disciplinary action. The charge? Blatantly seeking to deny to the rest of us the opportunity of a Labour government. I never see any of them actually SUPPORT our party in public – all they do is slag it off. They name call, slur and intimidate both the Leader of the Party and its members.
And now, surprise surprise, because there are local (and possibly a national) elections coming up, and Labour have been leading in the polls, the spectre of AS once again rears it’s ugly head. Bang on cue. Happens every time. They time it to perfection – to cause maximum damage to the party’s chances of success. Every single time Labour shows a chance of getting into No 10, you can 100% guarantee an AS claim will arise from somewhere within the bowels of the party.
I absolutely agree with you. I’m very surprised there hasn’t been a clean out. If they are all equally kicked out, no one can make allegations of anti-semitism only that they work against the Party to wreck Labours chances of becoming a Government. They have to go. ASAP.
To paraphrase there are lies, damn lies, then there are opinion polls. They are lies in graphs, blocks and pies. They are pictures of lies.
If I remember correctly at the last election the nasty Tory Party was all set to wipe out the Labour Party completely. Instead the Tory parliamentary majority was wiped out – so who actually compiles these so-called polls?