Project Yellowhammer – and the consequences of ‘no deal’ Brexit – explained!
“Stop Brexit!”: Even British comic legend Andy Capp has a reason to fear it.
This was on a friend’s Facebook page so I make no guarantees as to authenticity.
That said, it makes about as much sense as anything we’ve had from the Conservative government.
See what you think:
Yellowhammer summary for those who haven’t read it but want to know what it says explained by someone with a vague idea.
(Note: This is currently being called the ‘Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions’ It only has that title because of Gove being caught lying about it to the select committee, and had to retract that it is, in fact, the base scenario. In many areas I’ve got business experience of, this is optimistic).
1) Most businesses aren’t ready. Big companies are likely to be more ready than smaller companies because they’ve been paying idiots like me to do so for the past months/years.
So some companies will struggle.
2) Leaving in October means also having our national inability to deal with any weather that isn’t moderate.
3) We leave around the time of half-term school holidays, which isn’t great.
4) We hope Ireland won’t cut supply of power to NI. but we can’t make them keep it going
5) Goods through Dover will drop by half. It will be slightly better in a few months. If you have family in Kent, you’ll need a helicopter to visit them at Christmas
6) If you’re going abroad (in the EU), it will take longer to get through customs. Hopefully not US Border durations.
7) Energy costs will go up, some energy companies might (will) go bankrupt.
8) We’ll have a shortage of some medicines. This also includes Vet medicines needed for animals that farmers might want to export.
9) Do you like fresh food? Shame about that. Come back in six months. Also less choice of food in general, and Christmas might be chicken in a tin.. Also we (govt) are saying we can’t assess how bad it is, despite all the unions and businesses telling us, so it’s not our fault when it’s worse than we’re saying here.
10) We think we’ll all have clean water. .Maybe a few hundred thousand people won’t. They might need bottles, or street bowsers, or rain water, rain water is good.
11) Financial Services companies might be fucked. Good job they’re not one of our biggest contributors to GDP and tax or anything.
12) International criminals and terrorists are in for a bonanza.
13) If you’re a Brit living in Europe, err, we don’t have a clue, hope the country you live in is better than us.
14) If you’re an IT company, travel company or anyone who has to send data back and forth with Europe then, err, bollocks. Not looking good. We’re not really sure.
15) Gibraltar’s fucked
16) Riots, public disorder, more homeless, people stealing bread, good job we haven’t slashed police numbers or anything, isnt it?
17) The Dartford crossing could be blocked by the traffic from Dover, which means fuel supplies in Kent, London and the SE in general might all run out. Also about 2000 job losses from refineries closing, and weeks of fuel shortages.
18) Insurance companies (that haven’t mitigated it, ahem) are going to have some problems.
19) If you’re poor, you’re going to be worse off. Actually if you’re poor, struggling, middle class or anything but rich, then you’re going to be worse off.
20) Northern Ireland is more fucked than Gibraltar. Job losses, food shortages, protests, dissident groups etc.
21) Cod Wars mark 2
22) Care homes could collapse en masse. Like, lots of them.
As you can see, nothing to worry about, certainly not all the things they also haven’t included.
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Gawd almighty, what a shambles. I’m guessing that private pension pots might plummet in value too.
Much of this is unsurprising. I’m confused by the “base” scenario thing. How can anybody assume to know that? One would think, no, expect, anybody to assume the worst case, because anything in between that and “everything will be fine” is unknowable and purely guesswork, with no reliable parameters and why would you waste your time on that, anyway?
We were supposed to be leaving in March, when the circumstances would have been quite different. What this shows is that we have dropped the ball. There appears to be an over-reliance on certain things with no contingency planning. The old ladies told us not to put all of our eggs into one basket; clearly, we have not listened. We are totally unprepared for any kind of disruption and this, in itself, is frightening. Our governments have shown a lack of foresight, it seems, in many areas and just assumed, on the face of it, that everything will always be fine. This level of complacency is showing itself plain. Methinks that, this government, despite being forced to, is actually doing us a huge favour by exposing these weaknesses and I hope that people will see them for what they are, rather than assuming that by simply staying in the E.U. they will go away.
Definitely a shambles. Jobs are already being axed and sent abroad. Because of the lack of any kind of information about import/export arrangements the company I worked for made the entire export department redundant and opened an export office in Rotterdam instead. I worked for a small/medium sized company and that was 8 jobs so imagine what the bigger companies are doing? It’s a nightmare.