It seems The Spectator has been speculating on what Hamas hoped to achieve by breaking into Israel, attacking Israeli Defence Force positions and kidnapping civilians, who were taken as hostages into Gaza.

Israel was bound to strike back, and under current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that response was always going to be extremely forceful; genocidal.

So, why do it?

Here are my thoughts; let’s see if they coincide with those of that other magazine.

Well, sadly it seems this organisation has been playing with the lives of Gazan citizens in the same way one might play chess; sometimes, sacrifices have to be made in order to win.

Most of the analyses This Writer has seen suggest that Hamas in Gaza works in isolation, but this could not be further from the truth. Hamas is an international organisation – meaning Israel’s stated intention to destroy that organisation altogether is nonsense; part of its leadership is always based in other countries.

Hamas has allies in the governments of Qatar and Turkey. It used to be allied with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with Syria and with Iran but those relationships have been strained recently.

How, then, could Hamas bring all of these countries together to oppose Israel and its persecution of Palestinian people?

Isn’t it possible that the answer, for the organisation’s leaders, was to sacrifice thousands of Gazan citizens – in order to turn international public opinion against Israel?

So on October 7, Hamas breaks out of Gaza and acts according to stated intentions: eliminating the Israeli Defence Force’s Gaza Battalion and taking hostages to be traded with Palestinians the organisation claims have been jailed by Israel for no reason at all.

The operatives taking part in the operation stick rigidly to that plan; there are no atrocities – no beheaded babies, no rapes of girls or young women, and the hostages are all treated humanely. Israeli propaganda claiming otherwise then backfires, making that country’s government and military look like liars.

Israel then retaliates – not with a surgical strike intended to recover the hostages and remove the Hamas threat in Gaza, as should have been possible after years of espionage, but with a genocidal show of strength intended to act as a warning of what will happen to anyone challenging Israeli power.

This is in accordance with the so-called “Hannibal Directive” demanding that IDF troops kill Israelis rather than allow them to stay in the hands of an enemy.

This provokes Hezbollah to strike Israel from Lebanon in an act of solidarity. Yemen, said to be part of a so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ against Israel alongside Hezbollah and Hamas, has also struck at Israel from the south.

What happens next?

That is a matter for Israel.

Will it turn its formidable arsenal – most of which is still idle, despite the constant and extreme bombardment of Gaza – onto Lebanon and Yemen?

If so, will that prompt Iran to turn its own considerable firepower on Israel, to defend its allies?

You see, the countries/organisations that have stepped in already have been able to claim a legitimate interest in defending the defenceless; and if they are attacked, any countries that step in to defend them will be able to claim a legitimate interest in defending their allies.

The logical choice is for Netanyahu to respond to Hezbollah and Houthi (Yemeni) attacks only in defence – for the time being.

But he is still losing the propaganda war, because his forces are murdering hundreds of Gazans every day.

And the fact of those deaths is likely to stir many more members of the Muslim world – Palestinians, Lebanese, Yemeni, Iranians, Qataris, Turks or whoever – into taking up arms against Israel.

So, whatever Israel does, it loses. And this is partly because of the unacceptably violent decisions of that country’s leaders.

All it will have cost Hamas is a few thousand Gazan lives.

Let’s remember: there are no “good” sides in this conflict. As This Writer wrote in another article, weeks ago, “there are only murderers in this room”.

That’s why I’m willing to believe that this is exactly the way the leaders of Hamas have planned it.

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