Did Sunak ‘undermine trust’ with false claim he cut public debt? Judge for yourself
Rishi Sunak: he said his government had reduced the national debt but this is not true. It hasn’t happened yet – and may not happen at all, even in the way that was actually predicted.
Rishi Sunak is in trouble again – with the UK Statistics Authority, this time – for being unable to talk straight.
(In all honesty, if the UK had wanted “straight-talking, honest politics”, voters would have elected Jeremy Corbyn prime minister in 2019 – right?)
Here’s the story. Keep it handy for when you’re preparing to vote in the next general election:
The head of the UK’s official statistics watchdog has challenged Rishi Sunak over his claim to have reduced public debt, saying the prime minister’s definition of this was so specific and limited that it risked being misleading for voters.
Sir Robert Chote, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), said Sunak’s claims last month “may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis in this area”.
Writing to Sarah Olney, the Liberal Democrats’ Treasury spokesperson, Chote said the Office for Statistics Regulation, the UKSA’s regulatory arm, would “work with the prime minister’s office to ensure further statements on debt levels adhere to our guidance on intelligent transparency”.
Olney raised the issue with Chote’s office after Sunak said “debt is falling” in a No 10 social media video posted on 7 November, the day of the king’s speech, and then said “we have indeed reduced debt” during prime minister’s questions on 22 November, the day of the autumn statement.
Downing Street told the UKSA that both claims referenced forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility that net debt would be falling as a proportion of GDP during the final year of the five-year forecast, in the context of the autumn statement meaning 2027-28.
In both cases this was mainly happening due to changes to the OBR’s fiscal projections, with government decisions on tax and spending actually making debt higher.
Chote’s letter noted that while it was fair to use debt as a proportion of GDP rather than absolute numbers, the “average person in the street” would most likely have taken Sunak’s statement to mean that debt was already dropping and that government decisions had helped do this – “neither of which is the case”.
“This has clearly been a source of confusion and may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis in this area,” he wrote.
“Members of the public cannot be expected to understand the minutiae of public finance statistics and the precise combination of definitional choices that might need to be made for a particular claim to be true.”
The gist is that if Gross Domestic Product – the amount of money created by the whole of the UK – increases by 2027-28, then the national debt will be reduced as a proportion of that money.
It will not be reduced – in real terms – in any way.
And in any case, Sunak was claiming to have achieved a reduction in public debt – now. That hasn’t happened at all:
UK public debt:
Nov 2023, £2.671trn, 97.5% of GDP
Feb 2020: £1.791tn, 79.1% of GDP
May 2010: £1.03tn, 65% of GDPTories borrowed more than all Labour Govts combined.
Squandered on tax cuts for corporations/rich, contracts for cronies.
No new industries.
Public services destroyed— Prem Sikka (@premnsikka) December 21, 2023
So Sunak was lying – wasn’t he?
Source: Sunak challenged by watchdog over claim to have cut public debt | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian
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