This is about the vital background information that gets missed out of politics: Is Keir Starmer’s indifference to Trump actually about Brexit?

The BBC reported a few days ago that Starmer has refused to accept that the UK must choose between closer ties with the US or the European Union, when Donald Trump returns to the White House.

You have to dig a few paragraphs further into the article to find out what it’s actually about, though:

There’s long been speculation the US president-elect may launch a trade war against Europe and reduce support for Ukraine, even Nato.

In such circumstances, analysts suggest Britain would come under pressure to take sides.

Starmer outwardly says he rejects such a suggestion.

But it seems he might be working on an angle to attack Brexit.

Here’s Simon Wren-Lewis of Mainly Macro:

Trump likes tariffs because they are a real threat that can be used to obtain deals that he can argue are favourable to the US. Other countries can either play along with that strategy, or call his bluff by threatening retaliatory tariff increases. The first option, particularly in countries that will give a lot of airtime to Trump’s boasting, carries high political risks.

Both the Conservatives and Farage will plausibly argue that in dealing with Trump Labour are at a natural disadvantage, and they would be much better placed. If Labour allows the political narrative to become one where making deals with Trump is the general presumption, they will suffer politically. By contrast, if they make it clear that protecting free trade is both in the UK’s interests and requires standing up to Trump’s threats alongside others like the EU, then trying to appease Trump can even be made to sound unpatriotic.

Interesting – because the BBC was pushing the view of Trump ally Stephen Moore, who ‘told the BBC that if the UK moved “towards more of the American model of economic freedom… it would spur the Trump administration’s willingness to the free trade agreement with the UK”.’

So Trump’s people are saying the UK would be supporting free trade in supporting him, while this UK economist says this would be better-achieved by supporting the EU – and could lead to a better trade deal with Europe.

Who do you believe?

Professor Wren-Lewis continues:

To join with the EU in calling Trump’s bluff on tariffs, Starmer does not need to be part of the EU’s customs union, but this is not the point. What Trump’s actions will do is give Starmer a perfect opportunity to argue the situation has changed, Labour’s previous policy on the EU is not enough and we now need to substantially strengthen our trading links to the EU to weather the Trump storm. Of course this will have some short term political costs, but with longer term political and economic benefits for both Labour and the UK economy. Avoiding any short term political pain and passing this opportunity by means Labour will once more make things difficult for themselves in the longer term.

And there’s the rub. Given a choice between easy and hard, Starmer tends to turn the wrong way. On this, he’s fence-sitting.

What will he ultimately decide? And how badly will the rest of us suffer if he acts according to type?

Source: mainly macro: Investment in politics, like economics, involves risk and present sacrifice

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