The political centre-right in the UK and across the West is collapsing, according to the latest thoughtful and sobering analysis from Professor Simon Wren-Lewis on his Mainly Macro blog.

Drawing on the work of Sam Freedman and others, Wren-Lewis traces how traditional conservative parties have either been overtaken by, or mutated into, populist right-wing movements.

In doing so, he provides a valuable account of how the once-stable centre right has been destabilised by economic dislocation, cultural backlash, and plutocratic manipulation.

But his analysis also contains a striking omission: the current character and trajectory of the Labour Party.

Wren-Lewis is right to observe that the Conservative Party has ceased to function as a traditional centre-right force, choosing instead to emulate Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

He is also right to note that this is not a uniquely British phenomenon.

But he writes as if Labour remains a centre-left party capable of countering this trend, offering a stable, moderate alternative to right-wing populism – and that assumption no longer holds.

Under Keir Starmer, Labour has undergone a profound ideological transformation.

It is no longer meaningfully a centre-left party.

It has become a party of the centre right: economically orthodox, culturally conservative, and politically cautious.

In multiple policy domains—from immigration to fiscal policy, from public services to foreign policy—Labour is not opposing Reform UK.

It is emulating it.

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The hollowing of the Left

Labour’s rightward drift is not new.

Its roots lie in the triangulating strategies of New Labour under Tony Blair, which accepted many of the premises of Thatcherism in order to make peace with the dominant political consensus of the 1990s and 2000s.

But under Starmer, the abandonment of social democratic principles has accelerated.

Labour has pledged to maintain Conservative spending plans, to not raise income tax or National Insurance, and to preserve the basic fiscal framework of austerity.

It has distanced itself from public ownership, weakened its commitments to trade unions, and treated climate policy as a discretionary extra rather than a core economic imperative.

On cultural issues, Labour is even more explicit in its efforts to chase right-wing voters.

It has hardened its language on immigration, adopted a punitive tone on crime and policing, emphasised national flags and military symbolism, and attacked protesters and progressive movements.

Starmer’s Labour does not simply reject Corbynism; it rejects the idea that there should be a political space to its left at all.

This is not the positioning of a centre-left party.

It is the rebranding of Cameron-Osborne style centrism with a harder edge.

And it is taking place at precisely the moment when the political system is crying out for a serious opposition to the populist right.

The triumph of Reform UK’s agenda

If Wren-Lewis argues that the Conservatives have been captured by Farageist thinking, Labour’s response has not been to push back against that agenda, but to borrow from it.

Labour’s stance on immigration, for instance, is not merely cautious; it has begun to echo the framing and moral assumptions of the populist right.

Rather than defending the principle of asylum or articulating a humane migration system, Labour competes with the Tories over who can be tougher.

On Brexit, Labour has abandoned any hope of alignment with the EU, parroting empty slogans about “making Brexit work.”

In so doing, Labour validates the populist right’s worldview.

Reform UK does not need to win a majority to shape the national debate; it merely needs to drag the opposition parties into its rhetorical orbit.

And it has already succeeded.

This leaves Britain in a dangerous political position: with no major party willing to defend social liberalism, economic justice, or democratic reform.

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The collapse of Opposition

Wren-Lewis is concerned that the Tories have become intellectually hollow, strategically incoherent, and ideologically captured.

He quotes Robert Saunders approvingly: “As John Stuart Mill well knew, the Conservative Party was never truly ‘the stupid party.’ Yet what was once an insult has become an aspiration. It may yet prove the party’s epitaph.”

But the real crisis may not be the death of the Conservative Party. It may be the disappearance of meaningful opposition.

In a functioning democracy, opposition parties offer alternative visions.

They contest dominant narratives. They speak for different social groups and propose different futures.

In Britain today, that function has broken down.

Labour does not propose a different future.

It offers competence without vision, moderation without courage.

It acts as if its job is to inherit the state rather than transform it.

And in doing so, it confirms the populist narrative that all mainstream politicians are the same.

Enter: Jeremy Corbyn (again)

Into this vacuum, a familiar figure is stepping forward.

Jeremy Corbyn, expelled from the Labour Party and now sitting as an independent MP, has indicated that a new left-wing or centre-left party may be up and running in time to contest the local elections in 2026.

For many on the left, this cannot come soon enough.

The precise shape, leadership, and policies of such a party will matter enormously.

It cannot simply replay the Corbyn project of 2015–2019.

It must learn from that period’s mistakes—strategic, organisational, and communicative—and present a serious, grounded, pluralistic alternative.

But the opportunity is real.

A new party could speak for the millions of people left behind by the neoliberal consensus.

It could champion public investment, green transformation, democratic reform, and social solidarity.

It could reclaim patriotism from nationalism and security from xenophobia.

It could offer a genuine alternative to both Starmer and Farage.

Whether it can succeed is an open question.

Whether it is needed is not.

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A political system in freefall

Wren-Lewis identifies the crisis of the centre right, but he misses the wider systemic collapse.

If the Tories are no longer centre right, and Labour is no longer centre left, then Britain is not facing a realignment. It is facing a void.

The question is no longer which party will replace the Conservatives.

It is which force—if any—can offer meaningful opposition to the populist right.

Reform UK is not just a threat to the Tories.

It is a threat to the very idea of political pluralism.

Labour has decided to fight Reform on its own ground.

That is a battle it will lose.

If no credible force emerges to fight Reform from the left—with bold policies, moral clarity, and democratic ambition—then Reform will have already won.

Not by taking power, but by destroying the possibility of real opposition.

That is the true danger.

And that is why a new left party—led by Corbyn or not—may be the only hope left.

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