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The shape of government in the UK is likely to undergo a seismic change next week – in practise, if not in form.
The Labour government will announce the results of a major spending review that is likely to lead to budget cuts in all but a few major departments.
Needless to say, this has led to claims of political vandalism by the Conservative Opposition – but also to more nuanced criticism from (for example) the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
The Conservative Party’s attacks can be dismissed almost immediately.
After 14 years of underinvestment, public service decay, and economic stagnation overseen by their own chancellors, their critique of Labour’s fiscal strategy rings hollow.
If anything, Labour’s early-term spending was a desperate attempt to patch up what the Tories left behind.
But while we can ignore the political noise, we should take the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) seriously – with a caveat.
The IFS warns that “tough choices are unavoidable” – but that is true only if we accept the current fiscal constraints as fixed. And we shouldn’t.
Here are the facts: Labour’s problems heading into this review are self-imposed.
The government has deliberately boxed itself in — choosing not to raise taxes further, choosing not to borrow more, and choosing to protect certain departments (like defence and the NHS) while squeezing others.
This isn’t necessity.
It’s ideology.
And it’s creating a trap.
Just click on the image, make your donation,
and provide your details!
Labour’s self-made dilemma
When Labour came into office in 2024, it front-loaded spending into its first two years — a sensible move, given NHS waiting times, prison overcrowding, and decaying schools.
But that strategy only works if you’re willing to keep raising revenue or borrowing to sustain it.
Reeves has ruled both out.
-
The NHS alone now accounts for nearly 40 per cent of day-to-day spending.
-
Defence spending is rising toward 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027.
-
Meanwhile, departments like justice, local government, policing, and housing face real-terms cuts unless something changes.
Labour’s internal logic now amounts to: We’ve made ambitious commitments, and we’ve decided not to fund them.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
What the spending review risks
If Labour sticks to its current framework, it may have to:
-
Scale back police recruitment and violence-against-women targets.
-
Abandon or shrink the popular £2 bus fare cap.
-
Undermine ambitions to fix courts, youth services, and prisons.
-
Freeze or limit public sector pay, risking more strikes.
Even if the government avoids outright cuts, flatlining departmental budgets in real terms during a period of inflation and population growth is effectively a cut.
This is what the IFS means when it says “ruthless prioritisation” will be needed.
But ruthlessness isn’t the same as justice, or vision.
Get my free guide: “10 Political Lies You Were Sold This Decade” — just subscribe to our email list here:
👉 https://voxpoliticalonline.com</h4
What could Labour do instead?
If Labour wants to actually deliver its public service agenda — and not just manage decline — it needs to break out of its own constraints. Here’s how:
1. Tax fairness
-
A serious wealth tax (as discussed previously on Vox Political) or higher capital gains tax could raise tens of billions of pounds.
-
Closing non-dom loopholes and taxing share buybacks could unlock more revenue without touching working people.
2. Borrow to invest
-
Borrowing for capital projects (infrastructure, renewables, housing) is not only defensible — it’s essential.
-
Growth-generating investment would pay back over time through higher productivity and tax receipts.
3. Public sector productivity
-
Boosting productivity in health, justice, and local government requires investment — in systems, training, and technology.
-
That investment won’t come from squeezing budgets. It requires upfront commitment.
4. Reprioritise honestly
-
Does defence spending need to grow now, or could it ramp up more gradually?
-
Could NHS reform (staffing models, prevention, digital access) reduce pressure over time?
Just click on the image, make your donation,
and provide your details!
What to watch on June 11
If the Spending Review sticks to the current line — tight cash, no tax, no new borrowing — then it’s not a review of spending priorities. It’s an exercise in denial.
If that happens, we’ll need to ask hard questions about what could have been done instead.
More importantly, we’ll need to forecast what happens if the government stays on this path: stagnating services, squeezed pay, and a public increasingly alienated from a Labour government they expected more from.
So here’s a little exercise for our intelligence: let’s wait for the decisions on June 11, forecast what they’ll mean and watch the results play out…
But let’s also keep an eye on what would have happened if This Site’s recommendations (above) had been chosen instead.
Share this post:
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If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (bottom right of the home page). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
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7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
Rachel Reeves’s spending review crisis is real – and entirely of her own making
Share this post:
The shape of government in the UK is likely to undergo a seismic change next week – in practise, if not in form.
The Labour government will announce the results of a major spending review that is likely to lead to budget cuts in all but a few major departments.
Needless to say, this has led to claims of political vandalism by the Conservative Opposition – but also to more nuanced criticism from (for example) the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
The Conservative Party’s attacks can be dismissed almost immediately.
After 14 years of underinvestment, public service decay, and economic stagnation overseen by their own chancellors, their critique of Labour’s fiscal strategy rings hollow.
If anything, Labour’s early-term spending was a desperate attempt to patch up what the Tories left behind.
But while we can ignore the political noise, we should take the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) seriously – with a caveat.
The IFS warns that “tough choices are unavoidable” – but that is true only if we accept the current fiscal constraints as fixed. And we shouldn’t.
Here are the facts: Labour’s problems heading into this review are self-imposed.
The government has deliberately boxed itself in — choosing not to raise taxes further, choosing not to borrow more, and choosing to protect certain departments (like defence and the NHS) while squeezing others.
This isn’t necessity.
It’s ideology.
And it’s creating a trap.
Just click on the image, make your donation,
and provide your details!
Labour’s self-made dilemma
When Labour came into office in 2024, it front-loaded spending into its first two years — a sensible move, given NHS waiting times, prison overcrowding, and decaying schools.
But that strategy only works if you’re willing to keep raising revenue or borrowing to sustain it.
Reeves has ruled both out.
The NHS alone now accounts for nearly 40 per cent of day-to-day spending.
Defence spending is rising toward 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027.
Meanwhile, departments like justice, local government, policing, and housing face real-terms cuts unless something changes.
Labour’s internal logic now amounts to: We’ve made ambitious commitments, and we’ve decided not to fund them.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
What the spending review risks
If Labour sticks to its current framework, it may have to:
Scale back police recruitment and violence-against-women targets.
Abandon or shrink the popular £2 bus fare cap.
Undermine ambitions to fix courts, youth services, and prisons.
Freeze or limit public sector pay, risking more strikes.
Even if the government avoids outright cuts, flatlining departmental budgets in real terms during a period of inflation and population growth is effectively a cut.
This is what the IFS means when it says “ruthless prioritisation” will be needed.
But ruthlessness isn’t the same as justice, or vision.
Get my free guide: “10 Political Lies You Were Sold This Decade” — just subscribe to our email list here:
👉 https://voxpoliticalonline.com</h4
What could Labour do instead?
If Labour wants to actually deliver its public service agenda — and not just manage decline — it needs to break out of its own constraints. Here’s how:
1. Tax fairness
A serious wealth tax (as discussed previously on Vox Political) or higher capital gains tax could raise tens of billions of pounds.
Closing non-dom loopholes and taxing share buybacks could unlock more revenue without touching working people.
2. Borrow to invest
Borrowing for capital projects (infrastructure, renewables, housing) is not only defensible — it’s essential.
Growth-generating investment would pay back over time through higher productivity and tax receipts.
3. Public sector productivity
Boosting productivity in health, justice, and local government requires investment — in systems, training, and technology.
That investment won’t come from squeezing budgets. It requires upfront commitment.
4. Reprioritise honestly
Does defence spending need to grow now, or could it ramp up more gradually?
Could NHS reform (staffing models, prevention, digital access) reduce pressure over time?
Just click on the image, make your donation,
and provide your details!
What to watch on June 11
If the Spending Review sticks to the current line — tight cash, no tax, no new borrowing — then it’s not a review of spending priorities. It’s an exercise in denial.
If that happens, we’ll need to ask hard questions about what could have been done instead.
More importantly, we’ll need to forecast what happens if the government stays on this path: stagnating services, squeezed pay, and a public increasingly alienated from a Labour government they expected more from.
So here’s a little exercise for our intelligence: let’s wait for the decisions on June 11, forecast what they’ll mean and watch the results play out…
But let’s also keep an eye on what would have happened if This Site’s recommendations (above) had been chosen instead.
Share this post:
Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (bottom right of the home page). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com
5) Follow Vox Political writer Mike Sivier on BlueSky
6) Join the MeWe page at https://mewe.com/p-front/voxpolitical
7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
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