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Rachel Reeves is finally using her training as an economist in her professional life: she’s being economical with the facts.
Here‘s The Guardian:
Rachel Reeves has blamed a heavier than anticipated blow from Brexit and austerity for forcing her to take action to balance the books at next month’s budget.
In her clearest attempt to draw Brexit into the framing of her imminent tax and spending decisions, the chancellor said leaving the EU was turning out to have caused more damage than official forecasters had previously outlined.
The chancellor hinted she was braced for a sharp downgrade in growth forecasts from the Treasury’s independent watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), alongside what is shaping up to be a crucial budget.
Why not draw the OBR into the circle of those who misled us? Back in 2016 it told us Brexit would cut productivity by four per cent over the long term – and that was considered to be horrifying enough as it was.
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Perhaps it is because Reeves is speculating. What Reeves is doing is pre-empting an expected OBR downgrade — she’s suggesting that when the watchdog updates its forecasts for the November Budget, it will admit that the hit has been worse than expected.
But she has offered no new data to justify that.
Why mention Brexit (and also austerity) at all, then?
It’s because she is weaponising the facts for her own political ends.
This timing and framing are highly convenient for Reeves: she’s about to announce a tight budget with tax rises and spending cuts, and she needs a scapegoat that isn’t “Labour mismanagement”.
Saying that the hole in the finances is largely inherited — from austerity and Brexit — helps her make the case that the pain isn’t her fault.
There’s also the Farage factor. Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is polling strongly, drawing on anti-establishment anger. Reeves and her prime minister, Keir Starmer, are clearly trying to reclaim the economic narrative — to paint Brexit as the right-wing con that caused today’s cost-of-living mess.
So invoking Brexit’s harm does double duty: it justifies fiscal tightening and weakens the populist right.
She isn’t lying about the economic damage (although she may be exaggerating it – we’ll know in November) – the evidence of damage has been there for all of us to see for years.
But there’s a certain irony in her saying “worse than expected” when many economists (and Remainers generally) predicted exactly this outcome at the time of the EU referendum.
She’s rewriting history to make her comment seem like a sober reassessment rather than the political attack it really is.
Was her claim about fiscal realism? Well, some could argue that way.
But it’s also – and far more visibly – about blame management and voter manipulation.
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Rachel Reeves is weaponising Brexit to justify a tight Budget
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Here‘s The Guardian:
Why not draw the OBR into the circle of those who misled us? Back in 2016 it told us Brexit would cut productivity by four per cent over the long term – and that was considered to be horrifying enough as it was.
Perhaps it is because Reeves is speculating. What Reeves is doing is pre-empting an expected OBR downgrade — she’s suggesting that when the watchdog updates its forecasts for the November Budget, it will admit that the hit has been worse than expected.
But she has offered no new data to justify that.
Why mention Brexit (and also austerity) at all, then?
It’s because she is weaponising the facts for her own political ends.
This timing and framing are highly convenient for Reeves: she’s about to announce a tight budget with tax rises and spending cuts, and she needs a scapegoat that isn’t “Labour mismanagement”.
Saying that the hole in the finances is largely inherited — from austerity and Brexit — helps her make the case that the pain isn’t her fault.
There’s also the Farage factor. Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is polling strongly, drawing on anti-establishment anger. Reeves and her prime minister, Keir Starmer, are clearly trying to reclaim the economic narrative — to paint Brexit as the right-wing con that caused today’s cost-of-living mess.
So invoking Brexit’s harm does double duty: it justifies fiscal tightening and weakens the populist right.
She isn’t lying about the economic damage (although she may be exaggerating it – we’ll know in November) – the evidence of damage has been there for all of us to see for years.
But there’s a certain irony in her saying “worse than expected” when many economists (and Remainers generally) predicted exactly this outcome at the time of the EU referendum.
She’s rewriting history to make her comment seem like a sober reassessment rather than the political attack it really is.
Was her claim about fiscal realism? Well, some could argue that way.
But it’s also – and far more visibly – about blame management and voter manipulation.
Support Vox Political!
With social media algorithms acting as gatekeepers – allowing users to read only what their owners want them to, sites like Vox Political need the support of our readers like never before.
You can help by making a donation:
https://Ko-fi.com/voxpolitical
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