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There’s a new flu epidemic in the UK.
I know, because I’m writing this while struggling to cope with it.
Here are some details, from the BBC:
“An average of 2,660 patients per day were in hospital with flu in England last week – the highest ever for this time of year and up 55% on the week before.
““This unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year,” NHS national medical director Prof Meghana says.
“With no peak in sight, NHS England says there are now enough flu patients to fill more than three whole hospital trusts.
“Meanwhile, flu cases are also rising in Scotland – but at a slower rate
“Experts have been predicting this season could be a particularly nasty one for flu because of a new mutated version of the virus.”
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The question isn’t why we’re dealing with an epidemic, of course – we have one every year and there are regular vaccinations of vulnerable people to try to control it. Vaccines should still work well in this case, by the way.
No, the question is whether the NHS is able to cope with it. My impression is that, despite anything Labour might have done since taking office in 2024, it isn’t.
Me writing this while I’m bunged up with a cold is essentially the experience of Britain in microcosm: we just keep going because there’s no alternative, even when the system should be supporting us and isn’t.
This absolutely fits the pattern we’ve seen developing for years: a system permanently operating beyond capacity, so that even a predictable seasonal surge – even a moderate one – forces everyone to pretend it’s some kind of unforeseeable meteor strike.
The BBC piece is doing that familiar thing of labelling it “unprecedented”, when the reality is simply that the data series being used is too short, and the NHS has already lived through far worse flu seasons within very recent memory.
The winters of 2014–15 and 2017–18 were brutally heavy for influenza, with more than 20,000 deaths in each.
The difference is that, back then, the system was strained but still had some slack left to absorb pressure. That slack has been stripped out year after year since.
So the real story isn’t that this is a “super flu” – the experts are making it clear that the virus isn’t more severe, just more widespread because immunity is lower.
The real story is that:
- Hospitals are already full before winter properly bites.
- A&E is at record attendance.
- Ambulance call-outs are up nearly 50,000 in a year.
- And workforce relations are so degraded that strikes can be triggered at a moment’s notice.
Into that environment, even an ordinary flu wave becomes a system shock.
The evidence says the NHS is barely coping already and winter has only just started.
If this new wave – a mutated version of a flu we’ve already seen – H3N2 (subclade K) – follows the pattern of the mid-2010s, it could easily run for several weeks yet.
Of course there is a political angle: Labour came in promising stabilisation, but stabilisation requires two things the government hasn’t delivered – money and manpower.
Rachel Reeves’s “iron discipline” and Wes Streeting’s “reform” lines don’t add ICU beds, don’t train doctors, and don’t shorten waiting lists. They just rebadge the crisis.
So the question isn’t whether the NHS can cope with the flu. It’s whether the NHS can cope with winter at all anymore.
The answer, judging by the numbers, is: only just, and only because staff keep performing miracles in a system that no longer gives them the tools to succeed.
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lu cases jump sharply – but will ‘super flu’ be deadly simply because the NHS can’t handle it?
Share this post:
There’s a new flu epidemic in the UK.
I know, because I’m writing this while struggling to cope with it.
Here are some details, from the BBC:
“An average of 2,660 patients per day were in hospital with flu in England last week – the highest ever for this time of year and up 55% on the week before.
““This unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year,” NHS national medical director Prof Meghana says.
“With no peak in sight, NHS England says there are now enough flu patients to fill more than three whole hospital trusts.
“Meanwhile, flu cases are also rising in Scotland – but at a slower rate
“Experts have been predicting this season could be a particularly nasty one for flu because of a new mutated version of the virus.”
The question isn’t why we’re dealing with an epidemic, of course – we have one every year and there are regular vaccinations of vulnerable people to try to control it. Vaccines should still work well in this case, by the way.
No, the question is whether the NHS is able to cope with it. My impression is that, despite anything Labour might have done since taking office in 2024, it isn’t.
Me writing this while I’m bunged up with a cold is essentially the experience of Britain in microcosm: we just keep going because there’s no alternative, even when the system should be supporting us and isn’t.
This absolutely fits the pattern we’ve seen developing for years: a system permanently operating beyond capacity, so that even a predictable seasonal surge – even a moderate one – forces everyone to pretend it’s some kind of unforeseeable meteor strike.
The BBC piece is doing that familiar thing of labelling it “unprecedented”, when the reality is simply that the data series being used is too short, and the NHS has already lived through far worse flu seasons within very recent memory.
The winters of 2014–15 and 2017–18 were brutally heavy for influenza, with more than 20,000 deaths in each.
The difference is that, back then, the system was strained but still had some slack left to absorb pressure. That slack has been stripped out year after year since.
So the real story isn’t that this is a “super flu” – the experts are making it clear that the virus isn’t more severe, just more widespread because immunity is lower.
The real story is that:
Into that environment, even an ordinary flu wave becomes a system shock.
The evidence says the NHS is barely coping already and winter has only just started.
If this new wave – a mutated version of a flu we’ve already seen – H3N2 (subclade K) – follows the pattern of the mid-2010s, it could easily run for several weeks yet.
Of course there is a political angle: Labour came in promising stabilisation, but stabilisation requires two things the government hasn’t delivered – money and manpower.
Rachel Reeves’s “iron discipline” and Wes Streeting’s “reform” lines don’t add ICU beds, don’t train doctors, and don’t shorten waiting lists. They just rebadge the crisis.
So the question isn’t whether the NHS can cope with the flu. It’s whether the NHS can cope with winter at all anymore.
The answer, judging by the numbers, is: only just, and only because staff keep performing miracles in a system that no longer gives them the tools to succeed.
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