Labour’s candidate to replace Mike Amesbury has been chosen – and is already behind Reform UK in the polls.

The party has decided that Karen Shore, deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, will fight the by-election – the date of which has not yet been decided.

This Writer predicted earlier that Labour would choose a staunch supporter of Keir Starmer, in line with its recent behaviour, but I have been unable to find any indication of personal allegiances; maybe I was mistaken!

Starmer has endorsed the new candidate – but this is only to be expected. He said she “will be a champion for the people of Runcorn and Helsby.

“She’s local and her experience as a teacher and serving the community as a councillor will give people a strong voice in the House of Commons.”

But she has to get into the House of Commons first – and polling by former Tory deputy chair Lord Ashcroft suggests Labour is already behind Reform UK.

Amesbury won the newly-created Runcorn and Helsby seat comfortably in July last year, with 53 per cent of the vote and a majority of 14,696 – but Ashcroft’s polling suggests Reform is now ahead of Labour by 40 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Tories on course to be completely overshadowed, on just 10 per cent.

But only a little more than half (55 per cent) of Labour’s general election supporters say they will vote, compared with 78 per cent of Reform’s and 70 per cent of the Conservatives’. When that information is included, Reform’s lead increases to nine points (42 per cent to 33 per cent) and represents a 22 per cent swing to Reform since July last year.

The seat is vacant because Amesbury announced he would be standing down as an MP after he was convicted for assaulting a constituent in the street, in an incident last October.

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