Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has taken the Runcorn and Helsby Parliamentary seat away from Keir Starmer’s Labour in a stunning reversal – by just six votes.
The negligible majority doesn’t stop this being a stunning victory, as the figures show:
Labour held Runcorn and Helsby in 2024 with 22,358 votes – just 31 per cent of the 71,955-strong electorate, but nearly 53 per cent of those who actually turned out and 34 per cent more than anybody else.
Yesterday, the turnout was much lower – but this is typical for a by-election. Only 32,655 people voted out of a reduced electorate of 70,801 – 46.1 per cent of the total; fewer than half.
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Labour’s Karen Shore had 12,639 votes – 17.9 per cent of the electorate. That’s a fall of 13 per cent against her party’s share of the electorate last time and a fall of 14.23 per cent against its share of turnout.
These figures are more revealing than the “percentage of turnout” figures because turnout varies; if turnout is lower than a previous election, then a party may appear to get support from a higher percentage of voters, when in fact the number of votes it received was lower. Labour had 38.7 per cent of votes from people who turned out yesterday, which may induce people to think that more people voted for that party instead of almost 10,000 fewer.
Reform’s Sarah Pochin had 12,645 votes, which is also 17.9 per cent of the electorate – but for Reform UK that is a rise of 7.1 per cent and 38 per cent of turnout compared with just 18.1 per cent in 2024 (although, as previously stated, turnout is an unreliable indicator).
This turnaround hasn’t happened because people were desperate for Reform to win; it was because they really wanted Labour to lose.
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Keir Starmer’s party has plagued the people of the UK with sub-Tory policies and sub-Reform rhetoric in an increasingly desperate attempt to triangulate around those opposition parties, in an attempt to prevent them from gaining exactly the kind of support Reform achieved yesterday.
The result has been disastrous – and rightly so. Not only did Labour lose its left-wing supporters – who saw no reason to continue supporting a party that isn’t supporting them – but the right-wingers judged Starmer’s party in its failure to show any meaningful changes for the better and fled to those who talked a better fight.
Now, party backbenchers are starting to demand a change of direction. This Site said Starmer would have to change, in yesterday’s (May 1) article – and as I said then, he’ll have another four years in which to get it right.
But – as I also said then – he doesn’t know how. A Tory cuckoo who has hollowed-out Labour according to his own flawed ideals, Starmer has no policies of his own.
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The consequences are already spreading. Labour held on to mayoralties in places like Doncaster and the West of England — but by thin margins. Reform came a close second in all three early mayoral results. In Lincolnshire, they won their first ever mayoralty. And in local councils across England, Reform is making serious inroads — not just from the Conservatives, but from Labour too.
The excuses from Labour are rolling in. Party chair Ellie Reeves blames the difficult circumstances, says change takes time, and points to a few policy rollouts — like breakfast clubs and NHS waiting lists — as proof they’re delivering. But that message is being drowned out on the doorstep by one issue after another: winter fuel cuts, disability payments, immigration.
Even Labour’s own backbenchers are sounding the alarm. Richard Burgon has urged an immediate change of course. Momentum says continuing austerity could hand the country to Farage. And privately, Labour MPs from across the spectrum are admitting the same thing: this isn’t just a protest vote. It’s a warning.
Meanwhile, Farage is declaring victory. On the airwaves this morning, he claimed Reform has now replaced the Tories as the real opposition. And while the Conservative Party still holds more seats, Reform is beginning to look like the only force capable of drawing blood from both the blue and red tribes.
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And here’s the bit Labour really needs to hear: this wasn’t just a single freak result. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the UK’s most respected election expert, has called Reform’s win “remarkable.” The party’s vote share in Runcorn matches the best ever result its predecessor party, UKIP, achieved at a by-election — and that was usually when a Tory MP had defected and stood again.
This time, Reform didn’t inherit the seat. It took Runcorn and Helsby — from Labour — on an enormous swing: one of the safest Labour constituencies in the country.
A party that couldn’t win a single MP in 2019 now has five. A party that wasn’t supposed to survive Brexit is now winning by-elections and taking council seats across England.
And Labour? Labour is at risk of becoming the new establishment — already loathed, already distrusted, and already losing.
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Reform UK’s shock Runcorn by-election win – six votes that could change politics
Watch me explain on video:
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has taken the Runcorn and Helsby Parliamentary seat away from Keir Starmer’s Labour in a stunning reversal – by just six votes.
The negligible majority doesn’t stop this being a stunning victory, as the figures show:
Labour held Runcorn and Helsby in 2024 with 22,358 votes – just 31 per cent of the 71,955-strong electorate, but nearly 53 per cent of those who actually turned out and 34 per cent more than anybody else.
Yesterday, the turnout was much lower – but this is typical for a by-election. Only 32,655 people voted out of a reduced electorate of 70,801 – 46.1 per cent of the total; fewer than half.
Help fund great articles! We’re aiming for £50 to cover research and reporting time this week.
Can you chip in £3 today?
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Labour’s Karen Shore had 12,639 votes – 17.9 per cent of the electorate. That’s a fall of 13 per cent against her party’s share of the electorate last time and a fall of 14.23 per cent against its share of turnout.
These figures are more revealing than the “percentage of turnout” figures because turnout varies; if turnout is lower than a previous election, then a party may appear to get support from a higher percentage of voters, when in fact the number of votes it received was lower. Labour had 38.7 per cent of votes from people who turned out yesterday, which may induce people to think that more people voted for that party instead of almost 10,000 fewer.
Reform’s Sarah Pochin had 12,645 votes, which is also 17.9 per cent of the electorate – but for Reform UK that is a rise of 7.1 per cent and 38 per cent of turnout compared with just 18.1 per cent in 2024 (although, as previously stated, turnout is an unreliable indicator).
This turnaround hasn’t happened because people were desperate for Reform to win; it was because they really wanted Labour to lose.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
Keir Starmer’s party has plagued the people of the UK with sub-Tory policies and sub-Reform rhetoric in an increasingly desperate attempt to triangulate around those opposition parties, in an attempt to prevent them from gaining exactly the kind of support Reform achieved yesterday.
The result has been disastrous – and rightly so. Not only did Labour lose its left-wing supporters – who saw no reason to continue supporting a party that isn’t supporting them – but the right-wingers judged Starmer’s party in its failure to show any meaningful changes for the better and fled to those who talked a better fight.
Now, party backbenchers are starting to demand a change of direction. This Site said Starmer would have to change, in yesterday’s (May 1) article – and as I said then, he’ll have another four years in which to get it right.
But – as I also said then – he doesn’t know how. A Tory cuckoo who has hollowed-out Labour according to his own flawed ideals, Starmer has no policies of his own.
Get my free guide: “10 Political Lies You Were Sold This Decade” — just subscribe to our email list here:
👉 https://voxpoliticalonline.com
The consequences are already spreading. Labour held on to mayoralties in places like Doncaster and the West of England — but by thin margins. Reform came a close second in all three early mayoral results. In Lincolnshire, they won their first ever mayoralty. And in local councils across England, Reform is making serious inroads — not just from the Conservatives, but from Labour too.
The excuses from Labour are rolling in. Party chair Ellie Reeves blames the difficult circumstances, says change takes time, and points to a few policy rollouts — like breakfast clubs and NHS waiting lists — as proof they’re delivering. But that message is being drowned out on the doorstep by one issue after another: winter fuel cuts, disability payments, immigration.
Even Labour’s own backbenchers are sounding the alarm. Richard Burgon has urged an immediate change of course. Momentum says continuing austerity could hand the country to Farage. And privately, Labour MPs from across the spectrum are admitting the same thing: this isn’t just a protest vote. It’s a warning.
Meanwhile, Farage is declaring victory. On the airwaves this morning, he claimed Reform has now replaced the Tories as the real opposition. And while the Conservative Party still holds more seats, Reform is beginning to look like the only force capable of drawing blood from both the blue and red tribes.
Help fund great articles! We’re aiming for £50 to cover research and reporting time this week.
Can you chip in £3 today?
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And here’s the bit Labour really needs to hear: this wasn’t just a single freak result. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the UK’s most respected election expert, has called Reform’s win “remarkable.” The party’s vote share in Runcorn matches the best ever result its predecessor party, UKIP, achieved at a by-election — and that was usually when a Tory MP had defected and stood again.
This time, Reform didn’t inherit the seat. It took Runcorn and Helsby — from Labour — on an enormous swing: one of the safest Labour constituencies in the country.
A party that couldn’t win a single MP in 2019 now has five. A party that wasn’t supposed to survive Brexit is now winning by-elections and taking council seats across England.
And Labour? Labour is at risk of becoming the new establishment — already loathed, already distrusted, and already losing.
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