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A deep dive into the UK’s long-time ruling force

The Conservative Party has dominated British politics for decades.

But today, one question dominates: Is the Tory ship sinking — or merely weathering turbulent waters?

After the seismic shifts of Brexit, austerity, and leadership chaos, can the Conservatives hold their ground?

Or is Britain witnessing the twilight of its once-formidable right-wing colossus?

Let’s break it down — from the strategic stakes to financial realities, from policy roots to global context — and what a genuine Tory turnaround would demand.

The strategic stakes: why does it matter?

The Conservative Party is more than a political faction — it’s the anchor of the UK’s neoliberal economic model and the guardian of its traditional unionist (that’s union with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – not trade unionist) order.

A Tory collapse would not only reshape the electoral map; it would signal a crisis in the neoliberal consensus that has governed Britain since the 1980s.

Could Labour or insurgent parties truly fill that void?

The implications stretch beyond Downing Street — influencing the UK’s economic direction, social policies, and global standing.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Are the Conservatives really in serious decline?

Or just in the eye of a storm?

Election results and polling: the numbers are brutal

In 2019, under Boris Johnson, the Conservatives won votes from around 29.3 per cent of the entire UK electorate. That was enough, under first-past-the-post, to deliver an 80-seat Commons majority.

In 2025, they are polling at just 17 per cent of the electorate — meaning fewer than one in six eligible voters would currently choose them.

That’s a drop of more than 40 per cent of their real-world base in just six years.

Reform UK is now averaging about 29 per cent of the electorate — roughly matching the Tories’ 2019 support — and in June 2025 reached 31 per cent, making them the largest right-wing party by active voter share.

By contrast, after Labour’s 1997 landslide, John Major’s Conservatives still retained support from around 21 per cent of the electorate.

Even in the wake of Black Wednesday* in the 1990s, the party never fell this far before.

Financial position: deep pockets, weak returns

The Conservatives have long had the advantage of a deep donor network — wealthy individuals, corporate supporters, and an established fundraising machine.

In election years, their war chest has typically reached £30–40 million.

But since 2022, major donors have distanced themselves, citing scandals like “Partygate” and policy drift.

While the party still outspends most rivals, it now faces competition for right-wing donor cash from Reform UK and issue-specific campaigns.

Money can buy ads, staff, and data — but it can’t buy trust.

How we got here: policy decisions and legacy

The Conservative decline isn’t sudden; it is the cumulative effect of decades of decisions.

• Austerity (2010 onwards) gutted public services, suppressed wages, and deepened inequality, alienating younger and working-class voters.

• Brexit was sold as a path to sovereignty but delivered trade friction, inflationary pressures, and strained relations with the EU.

• Leadership churn and scandals — Johnson’s rule-breaking, Liz Truss’s economic crash, and Rishi Sunak’s flat image shattered perceptions of competence.

• Climate backpedalling has lost support among both environmentally-conscious voters and green-tech industries.

The Tories have become trapped between their historic promises and the public’s lived experience.

The geopolitical dimension

Brexit turned the UK into a “Global Britain” experiment — but without a coherent strategy.

Relations with the EU remain unsettled, trade deals have been modest, and the UK’s global influence is hugely diminished.

On defence and security, the party maintains strong NATO commitments but faces pressure from Reform UK’s more isolationist rhetoric.

Immigration policy, always a Conservative talking point, has drifted toward harsher measures — without delivering on high-profile pledges like stopping small boat crossings.

Economic philosophy and critiques

Perhaps part of the decline lies in Conservative economic thinking, which remains rooted in neoliberalism and monetarism:

• Keeping taxes low,

• Deregulating markets, and

• Maintaining fiscal discipline.

But the crises of Brexit, COVID-19, and energy shocks forced Keynesian-style interventions — furlough schemes, business bailouts, and infrastructure spending – meaning the Tories have proved that neoliberalism and monetarism are not practical when faced with real-world pressures.

From the perspective of Modern Monetary Theory, their fiscal conservatism has stifled investment in green energy, housing, and public services.

From a market fundamentalist standpoint, they’ve drifted into dangerous deficit spending.

The party now pleases neither side of the economic debate.

Lessons from history

The Tories have been here before — or close:

• After the 1906 Liberal landslide, they rebuilt by embracing social reform.

• In 1945, they adapted to the post-war welfare state consensus.

• In the 2000s, they reinvented themselves under Cameron in an attempt to detoxify the Thatcher brand.

But never in modern history have they faced being overtaken in electorate share by another right-wing party — a humiliation now delivered by Reform UK.

What a turnaround would require

A credible recovery would need:

• Policy resets – in fact, reversals – to tackle inequality, rebuild the NHS, and deliver real wage growth.

• Stable, scandal-free leadership that can unify moderates and hardliners.

• An electoral strategy to reclaim Reform UK defectors without alienating centrists.

• Donor confidence restored by a clear, achievable governing plan.

• Economic adaptability — blending fiscal responsibility with targeted investment.

Without these, the party risks permanent marginalisation – and the policy requirement alone makes that almost a certainty.

Nationalisation: a Tory taboo under pressure

Historically hostile to public ownership, Conservatives have nonetheless embraced it in crises — such as rail nationalisations in the 1940s.

Public demand for energy, water, and rail renationalisation is rising.

Ignoring it may be ideological purity; answering it may be political necessity.

Risks and constraints

For the Conservatives, the road ahead is littered with hazards:

• Vote-splitting on the right could hand Labour a massive majority – if Labour itself doesn’t suffer a split vote due to (for example) the new left-wing party under Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana.

• Media hostility over ethics and competence will intensify in a campaign.

• Internal divisions between traditionalists and populists could paralyse strategy.

• Electoral Commission scrutiny of donations and spending is stricter than ever.

Leadership: can the Tories rally under Badenoch – or do they face further implosion?

Since taking the helm, Kemi Badenoch has struggled to unite a fractious Conservative Party battered by internal scandals, electoral setbacks, and waning public trust.

Though praised in some circles for her rhetorical skills and media savvy, Badenoch’s leadership has failed to arrest the party’s polling freefall or to present a coherent, compelling vision for the future.

Her tough stance on culture war issues may energise some hard-line supporters but risks alienating moderate voters and deepening factional divides.

With the party still grappling with questions of direction and identity, leadership challenges loom large.

Names such as Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, or even younger rising stars like Tom Tugendhat or Suella Braverman have been floated as possible successors — though none have yet emerged as a clear unifying figure.

And repeated leadership coups could further erode Tory stability and public confidence, leaving the party vulnerable to rivals on the right and left alike.

Badenoch’s tenure may be a holding pattern at best — or the calm before the storm of another leadership battle that may cause further failure.

The verdict: decline, or the end of the road?

Support from just 17 per cent of the electorate puts the Conservatives at a crossroads unlike any in living memory.

They can still rebuild — but not by pretending the old formulas work.

Without reinvention, they will not only lose the next election but risk losing their status as the main party of the British right.

History suggests they are survivors. 2025 may test whether they can survive this.

*Black Wednesday (16 September 1992) was the day Britain crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after failing to keep the pound above its agreed value against the German mark. Despite frantic interest rate hikes and spending billions of pounds in reserves, the currency collapsed, costing the Treasury an estimated £3–4 billion. The debacle destroyed the Conservatives’ reputation for economic competence, and the party’s support among the entire electorate never fully recovered.

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