
Fading to black: Theresa May could be returning to the UK to face a vote of ‘no confidence’ triggered, not by Labour, but by her own MPs.
Less than 24 hours ago, Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists, so-called ‘rebel’ Conservatives and even some members of the Labour Party were belittling Jeremy Corbyn for refusing to call a vote of ‘no confidence’ in Theresa May’s government over her postponement of Parliament’s Brexit vote.
Mr Corbyn said he would not call such a vote until Mrs May had returned from her latest desperate begging mission to Europe. She claimed she would renegotiate parts of her dire Brexit deal, but we all knew the best she could hope for would be reassurances on the more vague passages.
As it happens, she didn’t even manage that – and now she has returned home to a nasty surprise:
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1072615722403147777
That’s right – Sir Graham Brady, chair of the Conservative Party’s backbench 1922 Committee, has arranged a meeting with Mrs May, to take place after Prime Minister’s Questions today (December 12). It seems unlikely this can mean anything other than that he has received the 48 letters required to trigger a vote of “no confidence” in Mrs May by members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party – her own people.
If true, this has to represent the funniest turning of the political tables in a long, long time.
All through Tuesday we heard a succession of Tories, Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists and even Labour MPs demanding a “no confidence” vote from Corbyn – even though they themselves could have triggered one if they were that desperate – and ridiculing him for holding back.
Now, despite the fact that his conditions have been met…
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1072512218800025602
Angela Merkel has confirmed there is ‘no way to change’ Theresa May’s doomed withdrawal agreement.
The Prime Minister needs to get herself back here, now, and put it to the House of Commons, so we can move on. Playing for time is in the interests of her career, not the country.
— Rachael Swindon (@Rachael_Swindon) December 11, 2018
EU leaders will not renegotiate Withdrawal Agreement to modify backstop. The best they will do is “interpret” it for @theresa_may in a friendly way. That will never secure Commons majority for her Brexit plan. So why is she bothering with any of this? https://t.co/1m2wolXsF9
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 11, 2018
The PM is scurrying around Europe seeking *clarification* !
She KNEW – we ALL did – that the NI Border & the subsequent "Backstop" would be an issue with the DUP and the Brexiteers.
Has it only JUST dawned n her ?
Is she so BLINKERED – that she thought her deal would prevail ?— Clare Hepworth OBE (@Hepworthclare) December 11, 2018
… Mr Corbyn appears to have been pre-empted – by Mrs May’s own MPs.
I don’t know about you but I laughed like a lunatic when I heard.
I mean, this is pretty funny now:
Kirsty Wark says SNP have given Corbyn an “ultimatum” of midnight to call a vote of no-confidence.
What happens at midnight? What’s their leverage? It’s completely bizarre #newsnight
— Michael Walker (@michaeljswalker) December 11, 2018
John McDonnell had the answer:
McDonnell to @NicolaSturgeon – we call the shots "We’ll put one down when we can win it. My view (on SNP) is they want is to lose a vote of no confidence, avoid a general election, they know we’re breathing down their necks in Scotland and will take seats off them."
— Torcuil Crichton (@Torcuil) December 11, 2018
Busted!
And the online jokers have been having fun:
#PeoplesVote and @NicolaSturgeon when they find out the Tories have started the process to pass a motion of no confidence in Theresa May rather than them pushing Corbyn into a vote which they'd losepic.twitter.com/NtzjpF0U7g
— Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) December 11, 2018
This clip makes monkeys of Tories like Anna Soubry and the BBC:
https://twitter.com/johnshafthauer/status/1072449030351974400
Ms Soubry called the Labour opposition a “joke” but, considering the behaviour of her fellow Tories, the joke’s on her.
As for Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis, who suggested “She’s the real opposition”, referring to Ms Soubry… well, if that’s the BBC view, it is behind the times.
Of course, we should not give too much credibility to rumours:
The media is buzzing with rumours of Theresa May's imminent demise#MagicNo48
But we've been here before #DejaVu
Nothing has been confirmed.— Clare Hepworth OBE (@Hepworthclare) December 11, 2018
That’s quite correct, although we can track the progress of the rumour:
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1072528272850862088
Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country – and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) December 11, 2018
Breaking: apparently the 48 letters have been reached but Sir Graham Brady will not announce until Mrs May is back in the country.
Also breaking: Downing Street announces PM's world tour, to commence today and conclude on the 30th March 2019.
— Tim Dawson (@Tim_R_Dawson) December 11, 2018
Apparently the ERG claim the 48 letters are in. So what is Brady waiting for?
— Rachael Swindon (@Rachael_Swindon) December 11, 2018
I said on @itvnews that predicting when @theresa_may goes is mug’s game. But someone I actually trust in all this tells me the 48 letters threshold for no-confidence vote In her by Tory MPs has been passed. Might be wrong. And I might be a prize mug. But thought I should mention
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 11, 2018
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached – v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018
https://twitter.com/BrexitBattalion/status/1072593241864835072
Brady has asked to see May after #PMQs by all accounts
— Rachael Swindon (@Rachael_Swindon) December 11, 2018
48 letters.
What will tomorrow bring? #Brexit #PMQs
— Dr Lauren Gavaghan (@DancingTheMind) December 11, 2018
In response, Corbyn supporter Aaron Bastani tweeted: “I’m pleased to announce yet another Labour masterclass and another melt disasterclass.”
Some are already speculating about Mrs May’s replacement:
Next Tory leader, latest odds:
The one who lied on a bus 6-1
The one who lied about impact assessments 8-1
The one who lied to Parliament and resigned 10-1
The one who lied and didn’t resign 15-1
The one who destroyed the NHS 20-1
The one who didn’t know we were an island 8-1— David Schneider (@davidschneider) December 11, 2018
But – again – we are living in interesting times that throw up complicated questions, like this:
Genuine question: if Theresa May wins an internal vote of confidence tomorrow, but then loses a vote of confidence in Parliament soon after, can she technically refuse to resign as Tory leader because she’s safe from another internal confidence vote for a year due to winning it?
— Evolve Politics (@evolvepolitics) December 12, 2018
Under Tory Party rules but not under Parliamentary standing orders as I understand from @RhonddaBryant https://t.co/f58PmV6VTc
— Debbie Abrahams MP (@Debbie_abrahams) December 11, 2018
https://twitter.com/_hanimustafa/status/1072606207616212992
And this:
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1072611764506910721
While we wait for the facts to sort themselves out, here’s an ironic factette, considering all this has beeen happening while Mrs May was in Europe:
If the rumours are true… Mrs Thatcher was effectively done in whilst over on the continent.
Déjà vu anyone? pic.twitter.com/kB6ayfr8Ns
— Andrew Gwynne MP (@GwynneMP) December 11, 2018
Harold Wilson once said a week in politics was a long time. Now the situation is changing several times during a single day.
Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring?
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Just to clarify: There’s a difference between a vote of No Confidence re Theresa May, and one against the Government. The former requires 48 letters from Tory MPs whereas opposition parties can call a No Confidence motion against the government. However to win one needs a majority of MPs, but Labour plus the other opposition parties do not have this majority unless the DUP also votes with them. The DUP have said that they would vote against May’s deal but not against the government. Calling one and losing it could strengthen the Tories. Some parties would like Labour to call this, in the knowledge that they’d lose but apparently they hope that it would pave the way for a 2nd vote. Politics is complicated!
Very wise of Jeremy to allow these nasties room to annihilate themselves.
Bring it on! Mr Corbyn was too astute to initiate a vote of no confidence. He’s just letting the Conservatives do it themselves.