The Tories are spinning so hard on their spending plans, it must be making them dizzy.
They are lying to you again. Labour’s proposals are sustainable but theirs are not.
That’s the verdict from Oxford University economist Simon Wren-Lewis, quoting the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the Resolution Foundation (amongst others) in support.
Both parties are proposing extra spending, and the Tories are trying to scare you with the scale of Labour’s plan:
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell would leave our country staring down the barrel of bankruptcy – and we know from last time what that means:
👩💻👨🔧❌ job losses
💷⬆️ tax hikes
📈 our deficit spiralling out of control
— CCHQ Press Office (@CCHQPress) November 10, 2019
But they have miscalculated, basing their figures on false assumptions.
Let’s do the facts first:
The Tories’ spending increases are unsustainable because they are saying they will not increase tax.
Labour’s increases – large though they may be – are more sustainable than those of the Tories because Labour has said it will increase taxes – we know from the 2017 manifesto that Corporation Tax will go up, and taxes on high earners. This means Labour will stay within the rules it has set for itself; the Tories will not.
More damningly, though, the Tories cannot sustain their spending plans within the Brexit framework that they have negotiated.
The hard Tory Brexit that takes us out of the Single Market and the Customs Union means greater damage to the economy, along with lower earnings and therefore a lower tax take.
Labour will either negotiate a softer Brexit or cancel it altogether – depending on what the people decide. That means less economic damage, higher incomes, higher taxation… and therefore higher spending.
That is the conclusion of Professor Wren-Lewis, using evidence from those other organisations in support.
He also suggests that the economy – and public spending – is one area in which the Tories will most definitely not want to say this is a “Brexit” election.
They won’t want to mention Brexit at all. Because “once you factor in Brexit, the Tories extra spending is unlikely to be sustainable. They willl be forced to raise taxes or cut spending to keep to their current balance target. It will be even worse if Johnson throws in some last minute tax cuts in a desparate attempt to ensure he gets a majority. The OBR might have shown all this in its budget forecast, but the budget was conveniently postponed.”
(Isn’t it interesting how anything that might reflect badly on the Tories gets postponed? The budget, the report on Russian interference in UK democracy, the inquiry into Tory Islamophobia, the investigation into whether Boris Johnson gave undue support to Jennifer Arcuri – all are on hold, so the Tories don’t look completely corrupt and incompetent, it seems to This Writer.)
And this is what we have seen on the Sunday politics TV shows.
Sajid Javid appeared on the Marr show, spouting a load of unsupported nonsense – and when Andrew Marr called him out on it, he threw his toys out of his pram:
Ouch!! BBC give the Tories both barrels. Your smears against Labour are "bogus numbers & dodgy accounting". That has to hurt. pic.twitter.com/v44jxP24EA
— Tory Fibs (@ToryFibs) November 10, 2019
“These are eye-watering levels of spending,” says the Chancellor representing the party that has saddled the UK with a much larger amount of debt.
Then he whines, “It will leave this country with an economic crises within months. Not years – within months.” What a big baby. Professor Wren-Lewis’s figures show it is his spending that will cause any crisis.
And I hope the fact check websites are already investigating this “costofcorbyn.com” website. It’s clearly a Tory site and it seems clear that it is fake news.
Meanwhile, Kwasi Kwarteng appeared on Sky’s Sophie Ridge on Sunday where he admitted that his own party couldn’t provide any numbers to justify its own spending plans.
It takes a special kind of arrogance to agree to appear on a TV show so knowingly underprepared https://t.co/zN5tyis2Ee
— John Crace (@JohnJCrace) November 10, 2019
“I’m not going to bandy around figures,” said clueless Mr Kwarteng. But that was exactly what he was doing. He doesn’t have Labour’s figures because his party’s claims are based on unfounded assumptions – and he didn’t have his own party’s figures because… well, why didn’t he have them?
Because they show that the Tories are the party of financial irresponsibility? And they are afraid to admit it?
Let’s face it – that’s the only conclusion to draw.
Tory lies on Labour’s plans show they are quaking in their £500 pair of Crockett & Jones brogues. The overreach is quite something. Even the Times newspaper has suggested as much!
— Liam Young (@liamyoung) November 10, 2019
One last thought:
If the Conservative Party was truly putting peoples interests first, they would be telling us how they plan to make lives better. Instead, all they do is attack Labour & incompetently at that. They act like petulant children, it's time for some grown ups. #GE2019 #VoteLabour2019
— Damo🌹REGISTER TO VOTE! (@Cornish_Damo) November 10, 2019
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