Can Keir Starmer really win an election after giving Labour activists a hard kicking?
Orwellian: after doing this to his left-wing activist base, how can Keir Starmer expect any grassroots help to get elected?
The Labour Party and its supporters are still reeling from the blows dealt to them by party leader Keir Starmer last week, it’s fair to say.
Unilaterally declaring that the Islington North Constituency Labour Party would not be allowed to choose Jeremy Corbyn as its candidate in the next general election, Starmer said anybody who doesn’t like the direction in which he has led the party is free to leave (the exact opposite of his promise, when he was seeking to be party leader, to unite Labour’s factions).
But the people he was showing the door are the people who have previously campaigned for the party on the nation’s doorsteps.
How does Starmer expect to win without activists to push his party and its policies?
Here’s one viewpoint:
[thread🧵] I’ve heard people on the left say that @Keir_Starmer will regret targeting @jeremycorbyn & his supporters, citing the fact that they & many of the people they know will refuse to vote Labour because of the abuse they’ve suffered since the change in leadership. (1/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
This is the thing about the rightwing of @UKLabour. Any notions of truth, justice or integrity are entirely secondary to electoral calculation. That’s why moral arguments are a waste of time with them. They attack @jeremycorbyn because they think it wins them votes. (3/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
It will seem so, to Starmer & his team: the liberal press, celebrities, the business community, ‘important’ political figures, commentators are all praising the ‘new broom’ sweeping away the “loony left” cranks & they are flying in the polls. But what are the numbers? (5/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
In 2015, 250k members voted for Corbyn; in 2016, the figure stood at 313k. Both were overwhelming majorities, we know that, but those bare numbers don’t tell the full story. The loyalty built up around Jeremy – as an individual – made that 250/300k very solid & enduring. (7/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
Of course, there’s an argument to say that the impact of people’s activism & political views reach into their communities & of course, families. So, while 250-300k may seem small beer in electoral terms, the ripples of Starmer’s attack on the left may go further than that. (9/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
Of course, there is another story: millions of people also voted for a @jeremycorbyn-led Labour Party. 12.9 million in 2017 & 10.3 million in 2019. If just half of what @Keir_Starmer is now claiming were true, they wouldn’t have, at least not in those numbers. (11/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
It’s a risk though in terms of credibility: Starmer is staking a lot on a residual hatred for someone who led the party he now leads just 3 years ago. But they are convinced that the rest of the country sees it the same as they do, which is why they keep stirring the pot. (13/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
Which brings me to the last issue: where is the enthusiasm for campaigning going to come from in 2024? Thousands of active members have gone & many who have stayed are refusing to actively campaign. This is potentially a bigger risk for @UKLabour than left voter kickback. (15/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
I’ve always been sceptical about door knocking in the way it has traditionally been done. A large activist presence can undoubtedly have an effect though, whether that’s visible campaigning locally, or community meetings. Starmer’s Labour will forgo all of that obviously. (17/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
But here’s the killer – and I don’t think they know it. The reason why all of that works politically is because it has an army of activists behind it, with the enthusiasm to push beyond the bubble of politically engaged communities around Westminster & local CLPs. (19/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
There have been some signs already: e.g council seats lost in places where there has been an evacuation of active members. Polling doesn’t necessarily equate to real life. And in an election campaign where the party has less to say, we may see the exact reverse of GE2017. (21/21)
— Ben Sellers (@MrBenSellers) February 18, 2023
So, with the activists staying at home, refusing to vote Labour or encourage anybody else to do so, will slick branding, impact social media, good PR, placed media ads/stories from friends in the press and storyline video make any impact on floating/casual voters?
What do you think?
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I have met so many traditional Labour voters who absolutely loathe Starmer, they think he is out of touch WTF ring a bell? and a despotic vacuous incompetent. We have all decided to either spoil our votes to send a message or vote for a hung parliament by voting Lib Dems or Greens. They intend to send both the Tories nd Starmer a message.
We’ll know better nearer the date.
My MP has the whip taken away but myself and family will vote for her has a independent if she stands
Thank you both for this interesting thread I feel the likely outcome will indeed be apathy and that people will stay at home. I am hearing ‘They are all the same’ from people who I know would have voted Labour in the past. And let’s not forget the ‘Voter ID’ issue.
I was prepared to give Starmer a chance, although I thought the writing was on the wall on the very day of his election, but left the Party (or rather it left me) in 2020. Nothing that has happened since has changed my mind, indeed has reinforced my decision, and I cannot support Starmer’s ‘Labour’ in any way. I know there are decent honest socialists still in the party, but I think they are misguided if they think change can be effected with Starmer at the helm.
From a very angry and sad old woman who first joined the Labour Party in the 60’s and will likely never see a true Labour Party again.
Yeah – I joined Labour in 2010 and got kicked out in 2018. When I started, I thought the party was stupid but saveable, but now it’s in an even worse position than it was then.