It seems the Conservative Party is heading for electoral oblivion after the next general election, with current projections leaving them with around 149 seats.

It’s still too many. They could come back again at the following general election, after Keir Starmer and his Starmtroopers make the diabolical mess of government that the smart people all expect.

And if analysis like the following is to be believed, that would be a disaster for the following reason:

A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.

A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.

If an election were held with polling as it is now, the projection suggests the Tories would plummet to just 125 MPs, down from 365 in 2019. A 2% swing in their favour would bring the number to 175 – but a 2% shift away would leave the party with just 72 MPs.

It is in this last scenario that the dominance of the populist right would be strongest, both in terms of numbers but also by the metric of which leading MPs from each wing remain.

Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman, seen as the frontrunners to succeed Rishi Sunak from the party’s populist right, have such safe seats that they would keep them under any scenario.

Think about that. The most right-wing Tories would keep their seats under any scenario. That’s an advert for proportional representation to be brought in during the next Parliamentary term, right there!

Otherwise, these (call them what they are) fascists are going to populate their party with like-minded candidates and then fill the media – both mainstream and social – with populist tripe that will fire up the easily-led to support them.

Then, when the next election happens (2029 at the latest), after five years of Starmerrhoid stasis with no economic improvement and an NHS now entirely turned over to private-sector asset-strippers, and with no electoral reform to prevent them from getting back in, the Tories will be able to storm back into power.

The Green Benches will be full of blackshirts. What a let-down for everyone who remembers World War II – or at least remembers people who took part in it.

By all means, let’s get rid of the Tories.

But for all our sakes, let’s do it responsibly. Don’t just vote Labour, even if you hate Starmer and all his sub-Tory policies, just because you think Labour’s the only other party that can win. Vote for whoever offers policies that will genuinely help you. That’s what you’re supposed to do!

Source: Heavy election defeat could lead to Tory lurch to right, analysis shows | Conservatives | The Guardian

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