The following X post just about sums up This Writer’s thoughts on the conflict between Iran and Israel:

Iran has responded to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus (that killed 13 people) with a large-scale air attack on Israeli military sites, scoring multiple hits on the airbase that was said to have launched the April 1 offensive:

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi released this official statement about the action:

Around 300 drones and missiles were deployed – most of which were shot down by forces belonging to Israel, the US, the UK and Jordan, among others. That might seem like a victory for Israel – but was it?

Israel has not officially admitted the attack on the Iranian consulate – but take a look at the messages immediately below. Was former (now sacked) Israeli spokesman Eylon Levy admitting something?

Owen Jones has come right out and said it:

Of course, by committing RAF planes to Israel’s defence, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak has committed this country to supporting the genocidal regime that has murdered so many thousands of people in the Gaza Strip:

He thinks that’s fine – and has released statements confirming his support of Israel – along with several other UK ministers and Opposition members. These are published alongside responses to them, to indicate the depth of disapproval by the UK’s public:

The defence of genocidal Israel has also been supported by German’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz:

And the actual analysis of what has happened is heavily critical of Israel and its allies, rather than Iran:

In fact, it seems Iran’s attack on Israel did not fail at all; it did exactly what it was intended to, which was to harm the airbase that launched the consulate attack, and to gather intelligence about Israel’s air defences:

Mr Valtersson continued: “During the night reports said that thousands of missiles and drones attacked all over Israel. You might get a thousand if MLRS-missiles fired by Hizbollah are included. According to Israeli sources 36 Cruise Missiles (CM:s), 110 Surface to Surface Missiles (SSM:s) and 185 drones attacked Israel. The main targets seems to have been several Israeli military installations, maybe those that were involved in the Israeli attack on Damascus. One confirmed target was the Ramon airbase in southern Israel, which was hit by at least 4 missiles.

“Iran claimed that the attack was according to the UN Charter, and that it was an answer to the Israeli attack on Iranian (diplomatic) territory in Damascus. Now Iran says that they and Israel are even. Israel on the other side says that they will answer in kind, which Iran will see as an escalation.

“During the attack Israel got some direct military support from US, UK and Jordanian military assets. Together with the Israeli Iron Dome AD (Air Defence) shield most of the missiles and maybe all of the drones were hot down. The actual number of missiles that got through is unclear but numbers wary from 7 to a couple of dozens. The drones were probably mainly intended to act as diversions, forcing the IDF to use up valuable AD assets.

“The United States probably wants to avoid getting drawn into a larger regional conflict. Especially with high tension both on the Korean peninsula and around Taiwan. US military assets near Israel will probably continue in helping defend Israeli territory, saying that they defend US military personnel on the ground in Israel. But the US will probably avoid taking part in any offensive operations towards Iran, at least for the time being.

“A potential problem for Israel in a prolonged conflict are the numbers of AD missiles they have. The Iron Dome is only effective as long as Israel has a lot of AD missiles. During the Gaza war, Israel has gotten a lot of deliveries of weaponry from the US, since Israel has a limited capability in a war of attrition.

“But the question arises, how much advanced AD can the US send to Israel? Much of these resources might be needed in potential conflicts with China/PRC and North Korea/DPRK. But some AD resources will probably be sent from the US, but not near the numbers needed to replace the Israeli usage of AD missiles, even during last night.

“The main loser on the escalating conflict is probably Ukraine. Ukraine seems to have used up most of its AD resources and are in dire need of replacements. With an increased need for AD missiles in many places around the World, Ukraine will probably be last in the queue to get replacements. Which will only increase the Russian superiority in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

“What will happen now? Much depends on actual Israeli losses tonight. For the time being only one casualty is reported from Israel. If that’s true it might limit an Israeli retaliatory response. But Israel will respond, and Iran will respond to that Israeli response. So there will be an escalation, but the question arises, can the US, Russia and China convince both parties to de-escalate? Maybe, by reducing the scope of the retaliatory strikes step by step until they fade out. Neither side wants to lose face and appear weak.”

So Israel may run short on air defence capability. Now read this:

Fadi Quran continues:

““Say the US decided to attack Iraq with a new stealth jet it hadn’t used before that evaded all radars? The attack was a success. Was it strategic?”

“Many in the class raised their hands to say “yes, it achieved its goal”. But the professor said: “It may not have been”.

“Why?

““Because now your adversaries know your capabilities and it’s a matter of time before they find ways around them. If this attack could be done with conventional weapons, it’s better to keep your top weapons until you need them. Using them creates a disadvantage.”

“My analysis is that the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region.

“The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them. But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds…etc

“This is a huge strategic cost to Israel, while Arab regimes now are being blasted by their peoples, particularly the Jordanian monarchy, for not doing anything to protect Gazans but then going all out to protect Israel.

“Crucially, Iran can now reverse engineer all the intel gathered from this attack to make a much more deadly one credible. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its success in stopping this choreographed attack is thus still very costly.

“Moreover, with the threat of a regional war that neither the US nor the Arab regimes want feeling nearer, it’s likely their pressure on Israel to back down will increase, making a ceasefire more feasible.

“Anyone assuming this is just theatrics is missing the context of how militaries assess strategy versus tactics. Theatre is an important factor, but gathering intelligence of the “enemy’s” posture is more valuable, especially if one believes they’re in a long war of attrition.

“Netanyahu and the Israel government prefer a quick hot and urgent war where they can pull in America. The Iranians prefer a longer war of attrition that bleeds Israel of its deterrence capabilities and makes it an ally for Arabs and the US that’s too costly to have.”

So the situation appears to be that Israel’s allies (including the UK) want everybody to believe a false narrative that Iran’s air attack was almost completely foiled and was a hopeless failure – when in fact it not only succeeded in striking the Israeli base that launched the consulate attack but delivered valuable information on Israel’s air defence, while depleting that same defence system.

Be careful who you believe.

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