Research by Sky News suggests gloom for Labour as predictions give it too few seats to form a government after the general election.
Keir Starmer and his cronies come out as the largest party – but with 294 seats, 32 short of a Parliamentary majority.
The increase of 93 seats is based on a rise in vote share of just two per cent, showing how narrow the party’s loss in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn really was, and how misguided his detractors were to claim it was the worst loss since 1935.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
The failure to win enough to form a majority, on this projection, may be blamed on the Gaza effect – voters being turned away from Labour because of its support for Israel in that country’s genocide of Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
The projection is based on results from two million council wards, projected into a nationwide estimate. Sky itself admits that there are anomalies, with the count of local votes showing a party “winning” a constituency when the uniform swing suggests otherwise – or vice versa.
The Tories would lose 130 seats, dropping from 372 to 242 with a vote share plummet of 19 per cent to 26 per cent. The Liberal Democrats would gain 30 seats (to 38) with a vote share increase of just five per cent. Remember that this is based on results in local elections, where the Lib Dems traditionally fare better than in Parliament.
Conversely, “other” parties – like the Greens, Reform UK and individual Independent MPs, are likely to gain just seven seats despite increasing their vote share by 12 per cent to 22 per cent.
The projection also assumes that votes for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, places where no local elections took place, are unchanged from the previous election. The same condition applies to the 18 seats in Northern Ireland.
So it’s not likely to be right – and should be best taken as a warning to Keir Starmer that his current attitude of invincibility is wrong and he could end up trying to form a hung Parliament with unwilling partners if he doesn’t change his ways.
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Gloom for Labour as predictions give it too few seats to form a government
Research by Sky News suggests gloom for Labour as predictions give it too few seats to form a government after the general election.
Keir Starmer and his cronies come out as the largest party – but with 294 seats, 32 short of a Parliamentary majority.
The increase of 93 seats is based on a rise in vote share of just two per cent, showing how narrow the party’s loss in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn really was, and how misguided his detractors were to claim it was the worst loss since 1935.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
The failure to win enough to form a majority, on this projection, may be blamed on the Gaza effect – voters being turned away from Labour because of its support for Israel in that country’s genocide of Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
The projection is based on results from two million council wards, projected into a nationwide estimate. Sky itself admits that there are anomalies, with the count of local votes showing a party “winning” a constituency when the uniform swing suggests otherwise – or vice versa.
The Tories would lose 130 seats, dropping from 372 to 242 with a vote share plummet of 19 per cent to 26 per cent. The Liberal Democrats would gain 30 seats (to 38) with a vote share increase of just five per cent. Remember that this is based on results in local elections, where the Lib Dems traditionally fare better than in Parliament.
Conversely, “other” parties – like the Greens, Reform UK and individual Independent MPs, are likely to gain just seven seats despite increasing their vote share by 12 per cent to 22 per cent.
The projection also assumes that votes for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, places where no local elections took place, are unchanged from the previous election. The same condition applies to the 18 seats in Northern Ireland.
So it’s not likely to be right – and should be best taken as a warning to Keir Starmer that his current attitude of invincibility is wrong and he could end up trying to form a hung Parliament with unwilling partners if he doesn’t change his ways.
Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (in the right margin). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com
5) Join the uPopulus group at https://upopulus.com/groups/vox-political/
6) Join the MeWe page at https://mewe.com/p-front/voxpolitical
7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
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