Is the honeymoon over with amendments a-go-go to the King's Speech

Keir Starmer is scaremongering about a £46bn pensions ‘black hole’

Keir Starmer is scaremongering about a £46bn pensions ‘black hole’ – and it should harm his general election chances.

He has claimed that the government will remove £46 billion from the public purse, annually, if it abolishes National Insurance – and that this will halve the budget for the state pension.

Is the government going to abolish NI in the near future? The short answer is no, meaning the pensions budget won’t be halved either.

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The government’s position is that NI won’t be abolished until at least 2030 – and even then, only if the economy grows so public money will be able to pay the bill another way.

This means the claim that the pensions budget will be halved is also untrue, as that cash would come from another source.

But it isn’t true in any case, as £46 billion is only a third – not half – of the pensions budget.

Finally, the government hasn’t said it will abolish NI altogether. Both employees and employers pay into the fund, and employer contributions would continue if those by employees were ended.

Furthermore, while part of NI funds pensions, other taxes may also be used – so there’s no reason to believe any cut in the value of the pensions budget, or of pensions in general, is planned.

That has not stopped Starmer from claiming that the government was going to raise the retirement age to 75 in order to cut the cost of payments (fewer people would receive pensions, and for less time). It’s a reference to a comment made by Lord Frost in a Tory conference speech – and the government has categorically ruled it out.

But the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that there is a strong case for merging Income Tax and NI, replacing them with a reformed – and higher – Income Tax. And pensioners do pay income tax (but not NI).

So Starmer’s claims are false – lies. Or at least, the disasters for pensioners’ incomes are not likely to happen before the general election. If they happen afterwards, then Starmer has given us all a series of yardsticks by which to judge those who make them happen.


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