Is this the reason Rachel Reeves is happy with high interest rates – not economic growth, as she has claimed, but that it will reduce the national debt?
Last weekend, This Site quoted economist Richard Murphy when he said this year’s rise in interest rates has removed £1.5 trillion from the UK’s debt liability.
Logically, it follows that continued high interest rates will continue to reduce the debt burden on the public purse.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
And today (Wednesday, December 4, 2024), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is telling us October’s Budget means interest rates will fall more slowly than had previously been expected.
The OECD predicted a fall from the current 4.75 per cent to 3.5 per cent by the beginning of 2026. That’s plenty of time for the Treasury to make another big dent in its debts (if Mr Murphy got his sums right).
The OECD also suggested that the Budget will achieve what Reeves wanted – a 0.2 per cent dip in economic growth in this financial year (to 0.9 per cent from 1.1 per cent before the Budget) would be negated by 1.7 per cent growth in 2025 (up from 1.2 per cent) and 1.3 per cent growth in 2026. That’s barring economic shocks, of course.
The downside for our spending power is that inflation is likely to be pushed up, so the pound in our pocket won’t go as far as we’d like, and mortgage costs are rising.
But inflation is also likely to help diminish Treasury debt, if I recall correctly. I’ll look forward to hearing from the economists who read This Site, on whether they agree or disagree with this prediction.
The bottom line? Her Budget might be good for Rachel Reeves – but that doesn’t mean it’ll be great for the rest of us.
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Is this the reason Rachel Reeves is happy with high interest rates?
Is this the reason Rachel Reeves is happy with high interest rates – not economic growth, as she has claimed, but that it will reduce the national debt?
Last weekend, This Site quoted economist Richard Murphy when he said this year’s rise in interest rates has removed £1.5 trillion from the UK’s debt liability.
Logically, it follows that continued high interest rates will continue to reduce the debt burden on the public purse.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
And today (Wednesday, December 4, 2024), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is telling us October’s Budget means interest rates will fall more slowly than had previously been expected.
The OECD predicted a fall from the current 4.75 per cent to 3.5 per cent by the beginning of 2026. That’s plenty of time for the Treasury to make another big dent in its debts (if Mr Murphy got his sums right).
The OECD also suggested that the Budget will achieve what Reeves wanted – a 0.2 per cent dip in economic growth in this financial year (to 0.9 per cent from 1.1 per cent before the Budget) would be negated by 1.7 per cent growth in 2025 (up from 1.2 per cent) and 1.3 per cent growth in 2026. That’s barring economic shocks, of course.
The downside for our spending power is that inflation is likely to be pushed up, so the pound in our pocket won’t go as far as we’d like, and mortgage costs are rising.
But inflation is also likely to help diminish Treasury debt, if I recall correctly. I’ll look forward to hearing from the economists who read This Site, on whether they agree or disagree with this prediction.
The bottom line? Her Budget might be good for Rachel Reeves – but that doesn’t mean it’ll be great for the rest of us.
Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (bottom right of the home page). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com
5) Follow Vox Political writer Mike Sivier on BlueSky
6) Join the MeWe page at https://mewe.com/p-front/voxpolitical
7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
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