Reform UK’s stunning by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby has brought immigration policy into sharp focus.

Despite a slew of toughened measures, the UK’s approach to immigration remains deeply flawed.

The growing success of Reform UK underscores the frustrations many voters feel — but is tougher rhetoric the answer, or is it time for real change?

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The numbers keep rising, despite the noise

This week, the total number of people arriving in small boats topped 10,000 — weeks ahead of last year’s pace.

The government has responded with a suite of policies: new legislation targeting people smugglers, plans to bar certain asylum seekers, tighter enforcement against criminal migrants, and the use of AI to accelerate claim processing.

None of it is likely to stem the tide.

In fact, many of these measures treat symptoms, not causes.

They focus on visible border enforcement rather than the complex international, political and economic realities that push people to seek refuge here in the first place.

The root causes remain unaddressed

From wars in Sudan and Syria, to persecution in Afghanistan and poverty in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the forces driving migration are powerful — and the UK, whether by military involvement, arms sales, or foreign policy choices, has often played a part in fuelling instability.

At the same time, the UK’s cuts to its International Development budget have stripped away one of the best tools for reducing future migration: helping countries to thrive so their citizens don’t have to flee.

Until government policy begins addressing the causes of displacement — not just the fact of arrival — we can expect these patterns to continue.

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The Rwanda scheme: a failed deterrent

One of the previous government’s flagship deterrents, the Rwanda deportation scheme, aimed to send some asylum seekers to East Africa to process claims — or simply to discourage others from coming.

It failed.

Blocked repeatedly by courts, riddled with ethical and logistical concerns, and dismissed by critics as performative cruelty, the policy never flew a single migrant out.

Yet Labour has kept its rhetorical toughness, labelling people-smugglers as terrorists and seeking to close loopholes for criminal migrants — despite a lack of evidence that such moves make any real difference.

Reform UK: turning the volume up, not the policy around

With its by-election win in Runcorn and Helsby, Reform UK’s influence is growing — and its stance on immigration is blunt:

• Freeze all non-essential immigration.
• Limit entry only to “essential skills.”
• Frame migration as out of control and harmful.

This kind of simplistic framing ignores the complexities of the global movement of people, and risks encouraging hostile narratives that demonise migrants, rather than addressing the policies and global systems that create the need for migration in the first place.

But its political potency can’t be denied.

Labour, under pressure from both the right and its own internal divisions, now walks a tightrope: trying to appear firm without echoing cruelty, effective without alienating allies.

The Brexit effect and lack of co-operation

The UK’s exit from the EU severed key cooperation channels on asylum processing, data sharing, and returns agreements.

Post-Brexit immigration control is now more difficult, not less.

The refusal to work meaningfully with European partners to create legal pathways, shared resettlement mechanisms, or coordinated enforcement has created a policy vacuum.

Into that space has rushed performative nationalism and over-simplified slogans – exemplified by Reform UK.

What we’re left with: political theatre, no strategy

Today’s immigration policy is built for media cycles, not long-term management. Governments respond to spikes in crossings with headline-friendly laws or moral posturing. But without:

• Adequate funding and reform of the asylum system

• Realistic cooperation with international partners

• Investment in development and diplomatic stability abroad

• And safe, legal routes for those in genuine need

…we are likely to see the problem persist — or even worsen.

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Migration will not be solved with slogans

What’s needed is an adult conversation.

Not about “cracking down,” “smashing gangs,” or “freezing entry” — but about designing humane, effective, and realistic systems that recognise migration as a global challenge that cannot be wished away.

Reform’s rise may shift the rhetoric.

But if that rhetoric continues to dominate at the expense of substance, it’s the British public — and the people risking their lives to reach this country — who will pay the price.

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