Just six months into her leadership, Kemi Badenoch finds herself in a position every Conservative leader dreads: defending not just her party’s future, but her own political survival.
After one of the worst local election nights in Tory history — 674 councillors lost, 16 councils gone, and a catastrophic 15 per cent projected vote share — Badenoch is staring into a deep political winter.
And the ice beneath her is beginning to crack.
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Once seen as the insurgent breath of fresh air in a fatigued party, Badenoch took over the Conservative leadership in the aftermath of a generational wipeout at the general election of 2024.
She was supposed to be the reset. The restart. The leader who could connect with a post-Brexit, post-Boris Britain.
But now? She’s explaining heavy losses, not avoiding them.
“We had a bad night,” she told the BBC with characteristic frankness, “and changing the leader again won’t fix it.”
That may be true.
But try telling it to restive councillors, spooked MPs, and donors whispering about a comeback for someone—anyone—who can stop Reform UK and the bleeding at the polls.
The very fact that Tory stalwarts are publicly calling for her to quit shows the ground is already shifting under her feet.
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Reform UK: the shadow threat
It’s not just Labour or the Liberal Democrats that worry the Tories. It’s Nigel Farage, now presenting himself as the future with Reform UK, which racked up 677 councillors and seized control of 10 councils.
That’s a big power grab.
“My job is to make sure Farage does not become prime minister,” Badenoch said. But the very fact that she had to entertain the question reveals how fractured the right-wing vote has become.
Some in the party fear she’s too cautious, too slow with policy.
Others think she hasn’t done enough to reconnect with disillusioned working-class voters or take the fight to Farage head-on.
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A party with PTSD
After Johnson, Truss, Sunak, and now Badenoch, the Tory party has developed a kind of leadership PTSD.
They know instability looks weak.
But they also know a sinking ship when they see one.
Badenoch argues she’s playing the “long game”, laying the groundwork for a return to power by the end of the decade.
That might be true — but British politics doesn’t do long games anymore, especially when Reform and the Lib Dems are stealing your councillors and Labour still can’t quite land a knockout punch.
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What next?
Her leadership isn’t over — not yet. But she’s now in the most dangerous position in politics: a leader with no recent wins, an emerging internal rebellion, and an external challenger surging on her flank.
She’s skating across a frozen lake, hoping the cracks don’t catch up to her before she can reach the other side.
The question is: how much longer will the party hold its nerve?
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Kemi Badenoch is on thin political ice
Just six months into her leadership, Kemi Badenoch finds herself in a position every Conservative leader dreads: defending not just her party’s future, but her own political survival.
After one of the worst local election nights in Tory history — 674 councillors lost, 16 councils gone, and a catastrophic 15 per cent projected vote share — Badenoch is staring into a deep political winter.
And the ice beneath her is beginning to crack.
Help fund great articles! We’re aiming for £50 to cover research and reporting time this week.
Can you chip in £3 today?
👉 https://ko-fi.com/voxpolitical
Once seen as the insurgent breath of fresh air in a fatigued party, Badenoch took over the Conservative leadership in the aftermath of a generational wipeout at the general election of 2024.
She was supposed to be the reset. The restart. The leader who could connect with a post-Brexit, post-Boris Britain.
But now? She’s explaining heavy losses, not avoiding them.
That may be true.
But try telling it to restive councillors, spooked MPs, and donors whispering about a comeback for someone—anyone—who can stop Reform UK and the bleeding at the polls.
The very fact that Tory stalwarts are publicly calling for her to quit shows the ground is already shifting under her feet.
Buy Cruel Britannia in print here. Buy the Cruel Britannia ebook here. Or just click on the image!
Reform UK: the shadow threat
It’s not just Labour or the Liberal Democrats that worry the Tories. It’s Nigel Farage, now presenting himself as the future with Reform UK, which racked up 677 councillors and seized control of 10 councils.
That’s a big power grab.
Some in the party fear she’s too cautious, too slow with policy.
Others think she hasn’t done enough to reconnect with disillusioned working-class voters or take the fight to Farage head-on.
Get my free guide: “10 Political Lies You Were Sold This Decade” — just subscribe to our email list here:
👉 https://voxpoliticalonline.com
A party with PTSD
After Johnson, Truss, Sunak, and now Badenoch, the Tory party has developed a kind of leadership PTSD.
They know instability looks weak.
But they also know a sinking ship when they see one.
Badenoch argues she’s playing the “long game”, laying the groundwork for a return to power by the end of the decade.
That might be true — but British politics doesn’t do long games anymore, especially when Reform and the Lib Dems are stealing your councillors and Labour still can’t quite land a knockout punch.
Help fund great articles! We’re aiming for £50 to cover research and reporting time this week.
Can you chip in £3 today?
👉 https://ko-fi.com/voxpolitical
What next?
Her leadership isn’t over — not yet. But she’s now in the most dangerous position in politics: a leader with no recent wins, an emerging internal rebellion, and an external challenger surging on her flank.
She’s skating across a frozen lake, hoping the cracks don’t catch up to her before she can reach the other side.
The question is: how much longer will the party hold its nerve?
Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (bottom right of the home page). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com
5) Follow Vox Political writer Mike Sivier on BlueSky
6) Join the MeWe page at https://mewe.com/p-front/voxpolitical
7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
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