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I read this week’s Mainly Macro column with an attitude of stark incredulity.
Professor Simon Wren-Lewis seems to believe that the only UK political parties capable of stopping the goose-step into power of Reform UK is that party itself – via an implosion similar to those that have happened to other Faragist parties – and Labour.
And Labour?
I would say that suggestion is optimistic to the point of naïvete, for several reasons.
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Labour is structurally incapable of confronting populism
Starmer’s Labour has spent the last three years trying to placate populist narratives — particularly on immigration, policing and “British values” — rather than challenge them.
This doesn’t neutralise Reform; it validates its framing.
Every time Labour agrees that immigration is a “problem”, or that “legitimate concerns” need to be addressed, it entrenches the idea that Farage’s agenda sets the terms of the debate.
Once you accept your opponent’s premises, you’ve already lost the argument — and eventually, you start losing votes too.
That’s exactly how the Tories destroyed themselves – chasing Reform’s base, hoping to co-opt its energy, and instead making Reform look like the authentic version of the same politics.
The liberal vote is Labour’s real foundation – and it is being eroded
Wren-Lewis identifies this late in his piece, but it deserves to be central.
The Labour vote now relies heavily on the urban, university-educated, socially liberal electorate.
That bloc is deeply uneasy with Labour’s triangulation on migration, its authoritarian noises on protest and policing, and its refusal to confront media bias.
Many of these voters will stay home, or shift tactically to the Greens or LibDems, especially if they think Labour has already secured power or become indistinguishable from the Tories.
That would hollow Labour out from the centre-left – the space it needs to hold if it is to resist Reform effectively.
The media terrain is hostile – and Labour’s strategy is non-existent
Prof Wren-Lewis is absolutely right that the mainstream broadcast and print media have been captured by right-wing narratives.
But Labour seems to have accepted this rather than try to contest it.
The party’s comms team rarely challenges distortions, relies on X (which amplifies the far right), and avoids aggressive framing.
Compare that to Farage, who has decades of experience playing the press like a fiddle.
Populists win not because they have better ideas, but because they have better stories. Reform’s is simple: “They’ve all betrayed you; we’re the only honest ones left.”
Labour’s counter-story is muddled, managerial, and apologetic.
You can’t beat a myth with a spreadsheet.
Reform’s ‘implosion factor’ cuts both ways
Yes, Farage-led projects have always blown up before — UKIP, the Brexit Party – but the political environment is more fertile for authoritarian populism than ever.
The Tories are dying.
The press is on board.
The BBC is cowed.
The public is economically miserable and institutionally distrustful.
Reform doesn’t need to win in the sense of forming a majority government.
It just needs to discredit the centre further and normalise its agenda until Labour either caves or fractures — which is exactly what happened to the US Democrats under Trumpism.
The ‘French scenario’ is implausible – for now
Wren-Lewis invokes France as a comparison: a squeezed centre and a polarised electorate between far right and left.
But the British left is too fragmented, under-resourced, and electorally hamstrung by first-past-the-post to reproduce that pattern soon.
A strong left challenge would require the Greens, SNP, Plaid, and some kind of new left formation to co-ordinate tactically.
That’s not impossible, but it’s well beyond Starmer’s imagination and would take a crisis — perhaps after Reform enters power — to catalyse.
The real danger is Labour paving the way for Reform
Rather than “stopping” Reform, Starmerism risks preparing the ground for it. By:
-
legitimising right-wing rhetoric on immigration and law and order,
-
refusing to defend human rights and protest freedoms robustly,
-
failing to rebuild trust in politics from below,
-
and ignoring structural media reform,
Labour normalises the very authoritarianism Reform will then radicalise.
If Labour governs like a slightly more polite version of the Tories, voters will inevitably turn to the louder, more charismatic one promising to “blow it all up”.
So, can Labour defeat Reform?
Not under its current strategy.
At best, it can temporarily delay Reform by hoping for economic calm.
But its ideological drift and communicative cowardice mean it’s building the next populist wave, not stopping it.
The irony is that the only force that might destroy Reform is Reform itself — via corruption, infighting, or Farage’s hubris.
If that doesn’t happen, the United Kingdom’s political future will look more like Trump’s America than Macron’s France.
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How can anybody seriously believe LABOUR can stop Reform UK?
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Professor Simon Wren-Lewis seems to believe that the only UK political parties capable of stopping the goose-step into power of Reform UK is that party itself – via an implosion similar to those that have happened to other Faragist parties – and Labour.
And Labour?
I would say that suggestion is optimistic to the point of naïvete, for several reasons.
Labour is structurally incapable of confronting populism
Starmer’s Labour has spent the last three years trying to placate populist narratives — particularly on immigration, policing and “British values” — rather than challenge them.
This doesn’t neutralise Reform; it validates its framing.
Every time Labour agrees that immigration is a “problem”, or that “legitimate concerns” need to be addressed, it entrenches the idea that Farage’s agenda sets the terms of the debate.
Once you accept your opponent’s premises, you’ve already lost the argument — and eventually, you start losing votes too.
That’s exactly how the Tories destroyed themselves – chasing Reform’s base, hoping to co-opt its energy, and instead making Reform look like the authentic version of the same politics.
The liberal vote is Labour’s real foundation – and it is being eroded
Wren-Lewis identifies this late in his piece, but it deserves to be central.
The Labour vote now relies heavily on the urban, university-educated, socially liberal electorate.
That bloc is deeply uneasy with Labour’s triangulation on migration, its authoritarian noises on protest and policing, and its refusal to confront media bias.
Many of these voters will stay home, or shift tactically to the Greens or LibDems, especially if they think Labour has already secured power or become indistinguishable from the Tories.
That would hollow Labour out from the centre-left – the space it needs to hold if it is to resist Reform effectively.
The media terrain is hostile – and Labour’s strategy is non-existent
Prof Wren-Lewis is absolutely right that the mainstream broadcast and print media have been captured by right-wing narratives.
But Labour seems to have accepted this rather than try to contest it.
The party’s comms team rarely challenges distortions, relies on X (which amplifies the far right), and avoids aggressive framing.
Compare that to Farage, who has decades of experience playing the press like a fiddle.
Populists win not because they have better ideas, but because they have better stories. Reform’s is simple: “They’ve all betrayed you; we’re the only honest ones left.”
Labour’s counter-story is muddled, managerial, and apologetic.
You can’t beat a myth with a spreadsheet.
Reform’s ‘implosion factor’ cuts both ways
Yes, Farage-led projects have always blown up before — UKIP, the Brexit Party – but the political environment is more fertile for authoritarian populism than ever.
The Tories are dying.
The press is on board.
The BBC is cowed.
The public is economically miserable and institutionally distrustful.
Reform doesn’t need to win in the sense of forming a majority government.
It just needs to discredit the centre further and normalise its agenda until Labour either caves or fractures — which is exactly what happened to the US Democrats under Trumpism.
The ‘French scenario’ is implausible – for now
Wren-Lewis invokes France as a comparison: a squeezed centre and a polarised electorate between far right and left.
But the British left is too fragmented, under-resourced, and electorally hamstrung by first-past-the-post to reproduce that pattern soon.
A strong left challenge would require the Greens, SNP, Plaid, and some kind of new left formation to co-ordinate tactically.
That’s not impossible, but it’s well beyond Starmer’s imagination and would take a crisis — perhaps after Reform enters power — to catalyse.
The real danger is Labour paving the way for Reform
Rather than “stopping” Reform, Starmerism risks preparing the ground for it. By:
legitimising right-wing rhetoric on immigration and law and order,
refusing to defend human rights and protest freedoms robustly,
failing to rebuild trust in politics from below,
and ignoring structural media reform,
Labour normalises the very authoritarianism Reform will then radicalise.
If Labour governs like a slightly more polite version of the Tories, voters will inevitably turn to the louder, more charismatic one promising to “blow it all up”.
So, can Labour defeat Reform?
Not under its current strategy.
At best, it can temporarily delay Reform by hoping for economic calm.
But its ideological drift and communicative cowardice mean it’s building the next populist wave, not stopping it.
The irony is that the only force that might destroy Reform is Reform itself — via corruption, infighting, or Farage’s hubris.
If that doesn’t happen, the United Kingdom’s political future will look more like Trump’s America than Macron’s France.
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