Sunak is clutching at straws with his ‘hung Parliament’ prediction
Rishi Sunak is clutching at straws with his ‘hung Parliament’ prediction, according to pollsters.
It seems the prime minister, desperate for a glimmer of hope after the absolute drubbing the Tories received in the elections last week, has latched onto the same article This Writer found, suggesting a hung Parliament after the next general election, based on recent voting.
But the authors of the Sky News piece referenced in my article made it clear that it was not based on all the facts that would be needed to make an accurate prediction.
In my opinion, it was simply a warning to Keir Starmer that he and Labour should not get too cocky too quickly.
You can read my article to get the gist of Sunak’s beliefs. Meanwhile, Michela Morizzo, chief executive of polling firm Techne UK whose weekly tracker has Labour 22 points ahead of the Tories, has provided an alternative view:
She said: “The local elections, on the one hand, are a test for the general elections and on the other they do not represent a clear picture of the real national situation.
“In local elections the turnout is lower and voting tends to be widespread, which means there is a tendency to vote more for smaller parties or independent candidates. Last but not least, the local vote is a much more personal vote, that is, often based on the candidate of reference.
“Conversely, in a general election, there is a tendency not to disperse the vote and to concentrate on the political parties that have a concrete possibility of governing the country.”
She went on: “At present, it is very difficult to envisage a hung parliament for the Conservatives as there are no conditions for this to happen. The local elections were a strong defeat for the Tories and – today – the only scenario facing us is that of a probable defeat in favor of Labour.
“Conservatives have to battle against Labour but also against Reform UK that is picking up a good part of 2019 Tories voters, and this will lead to a difficult campaign because in this case they speak to the same voter base.”
There are a lot of contradictions here.
The local elections can’t be a test for the general election if they don’t represent the real national situation.
Local elections do have lower turnout, meaning we cannot easily judge who would win any particular seat in a general election because we don’t know how everyone else would vote.
Also, there is a tendency to vote for smaller parties or independent candidates, based on the personal preference of the voter.
This is only relevant if we believe the claim that in a general election, voters concentrate on the parties they believe have a good chance of being able to run the country.
But even Ms Morizzo doesn’t seem to think that will happen; she says the Tories have to contend with competition from Reform UK, which doesn’t have a hope of winning enough votes to form a government.
The only conclusion to draw is that pollsters will tell us whatever suits them.
If voters elect local representatives based on personal preference, this must mean they choose the people they think have the closest policies to their own wishes. Why would they not want that in Westminster, where people have far more power to affect our lives?
Elections aren’t like horse races! We don’t bet on who’ll win, take our winnings (or accept our losses) and go home; we have to put up with the results of our decisions for years afterwards – decades, in the case of the ravages inflicted on us by the Tory governments since 2010.
Voters have realised that the main political parties aren’t interested in doing what is necessary for the good of the nation; they’re only in politics to line their own pockets.
That is why the Green Party is rising, along with Independent candidates.
But those groups are rising slowly. It seems that, for many people, old habits die hard.
And with the pollsters and the media reinforcing the view that we should vote for self-harm rather than back a loser, who can blame them?
Source: Pollsters tell Sunak he is wrong over ‘hung parliament’ prediction
Vox Political needs your help!
If you want to support this site
(but don’t want to give your money to advertisers)
you can make a one-off donation here:
Be among the first to know what’s going on! Here are the ways to manage it:
1) Register with us by clicking on ‘Subscribe’ (in the right margin). You can then receive notifications of every new article that is posted here.
2) Follow VP on Twitter @VoxPolitical
3) Like the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VoxPolitical/
Join the Vox Political Facebook page.
4) You could even make Vox Political your homepage at http://voxpoliticalonline.com
5) Join the uPopulus group at https://upopulus.com/groups/vox-political/
6) Join the MeWe page at https://mewe.com/p-front/voxpolitical
7) Feel free to comment!
And do share with your family and friends – so they don’t miss out!
If you have appreciated this article, don’t forget to share it using the buttons at the bottom of this page. Politics is about everybody – so let’s try to get everybody involved!
Buy Vox Political books so we can continue
fighting for the facts.
Cruel Britannia is available
in either print or eBook format here:
The Livingstone Presumption is available
in either print or eBook format here:
Health Warning: Government! is now available
in either print or eBook format here:
The first collection, Strong Words and Hard Times,
is still available in either print or eBook format here:
Polls have been wrong, very wrong before. But they do seem to be able to predict the direction of travel and the general feeling of the UK. Beyond that, who knows..